Sam Darnold: the First Rookie QB to Take the Throne in 2018?

• Which rookie QB do online betting sites believe will see the most time under center in 2018?
• Assessing the QB battles all five first-round QBs face in OTAs
• Is Joe Flacco’s job actually safe?

If not for Saquon Barkley, we would have only been talking about quarterbacks leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft. Five pivots were selected in the first-round, with four of them coming off the board in the first ten picks.

Baker Mayfield may have been the first QB (and player) off the board, but he may not be the first signal-caller to get under center in the NFL, and may not be the one with the most starts under his belt at the end of the season.

Online sportsbooks have released props asking which QB will start more games during the 2018 NFL season. Oddsmakers are not pitting these five rookies against each other, rather squaring them off against the believed-to-be current starter on their new teams.

Let’s start with the most likely (according to the odds), working towards the rookie quarterback who will likely ride the pine for the majority of the season, if not all of it.

Sam Darnold vs Josh McCown (New York Jets)

Up until the morning of the 2018 NFL Draft, Sam Darnold was believed to be the quarterback the Cleveland Browns would take with the first-overall pick. Darnold has all the tools to succeed in the NFL, and is viewed as the most mature of the five first-round pivots.

Josh McCown was brought into New York on a one-year, $6 million deal in March of 2017, after being cut by the Cleveland Browns. He was supposed to serve as a mentor to Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty.

But the 38-year-old balled out and won five of his 13 starts, posting a 94.5 passer rating, with what was believed to be the worst roster in football. The result was another one-year contract for McCown, this time worth $10 million to stay with the Jets.

If we’ve learned anything from McCown, though, it’s that you cannot expect this kind of play out of him consistently. Have a look at his last five seasons as a pro:

His inability to stay on the field is certainly a concern, along with his rollercoaster play when he is healthy.

There’s not much value to be had, but Darnold is the safe play here. The Jets fanbase is going to want to see their prized rookie early, and I expect they’ll get their wish.

It may come as early as Week 6, following games against the fierce pass-rushes of the Jaguars (Week 4) and Broncos (Week 5).

Baker Mayfield vs Tyrod Taylor (Cleveland Browns)

Of the five perceived quarterback competitions involving rookies in 2018, the one in Cleveland is going to be the most interesting to watch this offseason.

In three seasons in Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor threw 51 TDs to just 16 INTs, posting a 92.5 passer rating, and also adding 1,575 rushing yards and 14 TDs on the ground. Those numbers look pretty good, but Taylor has never been able to shake the label of a game-manager.

In defense of Taylor, he has never really had a great set of receivers to throw the ball to. That’s not the case in Cleveland, though. In order to hold off the first-overall pick the 28-year-old will need to push the ball down the field and utilize the speed and big-play potential of Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry.

Even if Taylor does start taking more deep shots, it’s not going to keep him under center if the Browns are not winning games. Unfortunately for T-Mobile, Cleveland opens the season with games against the Steelers and Saints.

Baker Mayfield has brought a swagger with him to Cleveland, and Hue Jackson knows he needs to win in 2018 to keep his job. The rookie may find himself on the field come Week 4, following a Thursday Night Football date with the Jets, if Taylor doesn’t keep the first two games of the season competitive.

Mayfield’s odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year also suggest he won’t be on the bench very long in Cleveland.

Josh Allen vs AJ McCarron (Buffalo Bills)

This is not a bet I am eager to make right now.

In drafting Josh Allen, the Bills knew it was going to take a lot of work (and time) before the Wyoming product would be NFL-ready. The seventh-overall pick from the 2018 NFL Draft has a ton of arm talent and potential, but he’s far from ready to be a successful NFL quarterback.

So if all things go well for Buffalo in 2018, Allen wouldn’t have to take the field this season.

The problem is there isn’t a proven player in front of the rookie on the depth chart. The Bills also brought in former Bengals backup AJ McCarron this offseason. But the 27-year-old has started four games (one in the playoffs) as a pro.

McCarron showed some flashes in those games, but appears to be more of a poor man’s Tyrod Taylor, who they just sent packing.

And then there’s last year’s fifth-round pick, Nathan Peterman, who did everything in his power to spoil the Bills’ playoff hopes, throwing five INTs on just 14 attempts in his first career start.

Peterman may not give the team much of a chance to win games, but Buffalo may opt to throw him out there rather than rush their future onto the field prematurely.

It’s a very difficult situation to decipher. But if I had to put money on it, I’d take the value with McCarron.

Josh Rosen vs Sam Bradford (Arizona Cardinals)

I do believe Josh Rosen was the best quarterback available in the 2018 NFL Draft. But I also believe he has the best QB in front of him of the five first-rounders.

Sam Bradford was pretty good for the Vikings in 2016, posting a 4:1 TD to INT ratio and a 99.3 passer rating. And when healthy in 2017, which was realistically only one game, the former first-overall pick looked absolutely lethal, carving up the Saints defense for 346 yards and three TDs.

But it’s never really been a lack of talent that has held Bradford back in the NFL, rather a very unfortunate series of knee injuries. In the last five seasons, Bradford has only been able to play in 38 games – of a possible 80.

If the 30-year-old can stay healthy, he should hold off Rosen for at least half of the season. But that’s a really big “if”, especially when you see four of the Cardinals’ first seven games in 2018 come against the Rams, Broncos, Vikings, and Seahawks.

Lamar Jackson vs Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

The Baltimore Ravens moved back up into the first-round of the 2018 NFL Draft to select Lamar Jackson 32nd-overall because Joe Flacco has not posted a passer rating above 83.5 in the last three seasons.

Saying Flacco is an average QB in the NFL right now would be extremely polite.

When someone says Joe Flacco is elite pic.twitter.com/fldFcYiGj1

— Yinzertainment (@YinzDaily) May 20, 2018

But there won’t be any rush to take him off the field this season. Jackson’s rookie season will be best spent learning from the sideline.

On the other hand, getting Jackson at +500 here may be worth sprinkling a little money on. Flacco is 33 years old and battled through a back injury early in 2017. In ten seasons in the NFL, the former 18th-overall pick has only ever missed six starts, which all came in 2015.

Although there isn’t a history of injuries with the Super Bowl champion QB, signs of wear and tear are starting to show.

Track the progress of these rookie pivots using our 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker.