Bears RB David Montgomery Given 20-1 Odds to Win 2019 NFL OROY; Is He a Steal at This Price?
- David Montgomery was selected in the third round, 73rd overall by the Chicago Bears
- Following the draft he has the 11th-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
- With a class full of offensive weapons, is Montgomery worth the long odds?
Over the weekend, the Chicago Bears made Iowa State’s David Montgomery the fourth running back off the board.
In total, he was the 19th offensive skill position player to come off the board, with just one of those players going in the top 15. While there were no runaway favorites at wide receiver, running back or tight end, it makes the 2019 season very interesting.
Especially when it comes to NFL OROY odds. Could the third round pick have sneaky value when it comes to the award?
2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray, ARZ | QB | +600 |
| Dwayne Haskins, WAS | QB | +700 |
| Josh Jacobs, OAK | RB | +800 |
| Marquise Brown, BAL | WR | +1100 |
| DK Metcalf, SEA | WR | +1200 |
| Mecole Hardman, KC | WR | +1400 |
| Drew Lock, DEN | QB | +1600 |
| AJ Brown, TEN | WR | +1800 |
| N’Keal Harry, NE | WR | +1800 |
| Parris Campbell, IND | WR | +2000 |
| David Montgomery, CHI | RB | +2000 |
*Odds taken May 1, 2019
Despite where he was taken in the draft, Montgomery has the second-best odds among running backs. That’s because Darrell Henderson will be spending the year behind Todd Gurley, and it’s still tough to see how heavily the Eagles will use Miles Sanders.
David Montgomery owns the PFF College record for most missed tackles forced in a season (in 2017) and his 2018 numbers are 2nd-best. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/5FOUeURfb6
— PFF (@PFF) April 27, 2019
It will be tough to break through a wide receiver-heavy class that has no real favorite. Montgomery will get the touches to at least try however.
Bears’ Depth Chart
| Running Back | NFL Experience |
|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 2 Season, 32 Games |
| Mike Davis | 4 Seasons, 35 Games |
| David Montgomery | Rookie |
| Kerrith Whyte Jr. | Rookie |
While Tarik Cohen is sitting atop the depth chart, it’s mostly due to his tenure (two seasons) in the system.
Cohen averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season, but finished with just 99 carries. While the odds are low, he sees an uptick in between-the-tackles work, and still has a well-established role with 124 catches over two years.
Nagy on #Bears RBs David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis: "They're all a little bit different, and I like that. It gives you options and they're all weapons."
— Larry Mayer (@LarryMayer) April 27, 2019
Montgomery averaged just 1.9 receptions a game in college over three years, but that doesn’t speak to his versatility.
More specifically, the Bears believe they’ll be able to send Montgomery into pass routes out of the backfield and from alignments removed from the formation.
Montgomery averaged just 1.9 receptions a game in college over three years, but that doesn’t speak to his versatility..
The Bears like what they see in him in the passing game, and think he can grow. But Cohen’s still in his way.
Montgomery’s OROY Prospects Hinge on Davis
Judging from everything coming out of Chicago, Matt Nagy expects to feed a three-headed monster at running back.
Cohen will get his catches, and Mike Davis and Montgomery will split the heavy lifting.
Whoever starts with the hot hand however, could sway things their way.
Davis went from playing six games in 2017, to 15 in 2018. He ran the ball 112 times for the Seahawks, which will be the range he works in for Chicago. He finished the year averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
David Montgomery is not easy to bring down pic.twitter.com/qzQSghVfAM
— Petro (@npetro17) April 27, 2019
Montgomery meanwhile, averaged 4.5 yards per rush over his last 515 college carries. He added 24 touchdowns in his last two season.
He is every bit the weapon he projects to be, but the looming question is how many snaps he gets a game.
Is Montgomery Worth a OROY Bet?
The usage is the sticking point for us. There’s a difference between getting enough snaps to be an effective player, and enough to factor into the OROY race.
Early projections for the newest Chicago Bear, David Montgomery pic.twitter.com/hQaHi4wUhZ
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) April 27, 2019
As we pointed out on our OROY odds tracker page, 15 non-first rounders have won OROY. This year the odds are on it becoming 16.
But not only is the Iowa State product fighting for room on his own team, he has to contend with a number of rookies sliding into feature roles.
Things might change once the pads come on, but at this point there’s not enough for an investment.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
