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How a Deebo Samuel Trade Would Affect San Francisco’s Super Bowl Odds & NFC West Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Apr 20, 2022 · 3:09 PM PDT

Deebo Samuel warming up
FILE - San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) warms up before an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. All-Pro receiver Deebo Samuel told ESPN that he has requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers as the two sides have been unable to negotiate a long-term deal for one of the league's top playmakers. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
  • 49ers star receiver Deebo Samuel has requested a trade
  • Samuel earned All-Pro honors last season racking up 1,770 total yards with 14 TD
  • Read below for analysis on how a potential trade would affect San Francisco’s Super Bowl and Divisional futures

Deebo Samuel wants to get paid. The 49ers star receiver has been watching wideouts around the NFL get filthy rich this season and not surprisingly he wants to get in on the action.

San Francisco has been adamant all off-season that they intended to get a new contract done with Samuel but the two sides have not made any progress. The stalemate was enough for Samuel to scrub any 49ers mentions and photos from his social media accounts, and to go public with his request. His potential absence, however, hasn’t made much of an impact on 49ers futures yet.

2022 Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds
Buffalo Bills +700
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
Kansas City Chiefs +900
Green Bay Packers +1100
Los Angeles Rams +1200
San Francisco 49ers +1500
Denver Broncos +1600
Los Angeles Chargers +1600
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Cleveland Browns +1800
Baltimore Ravens +2200
Cincinnati Bengals +2200
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Tennessee Titans +2500
Arizona Cardinals +3000
Miami Dolphins +3000
New England Patriots +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Las Vegas Raiders +5000
Philadelphia Eagles +5000
New Orleans Saints +5000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
Washington Commanders +7000
Seattle Seahawks +8000
Atlanta Falcons +10000
Carolina Panthers +10000
Chicago Bears +10000
New York Giants +10000
Jacksonville Jaguars +12500
Detroit Lions +15000
New York Jets +15000
Houston Texans +25000

Odds as of April 20 at Caesars Sportsbook

San Francisco remains a top-six contender in the Super Bowl odds, with their price slipping just slightly from +1400 to +1500.

The Niners are still the second shortest priced team in the NFC West odds, with their price tag actually shortening from +185 to +180 following the news.

Samuel Breaks Silence Just In Time

Samuel still has one-year remaining on his rookie contract and San Francisco has no obligation to trade him. Given his long injury history, however, it’s not shocking he’s looking to secure a second contract early.

The 26-year-old has played only 38 out of a possible 49 regular-season games over his career thanks to a variety of injuries, but when he’s on the field he’s been uber-productive.

Samuel earned All-Pro honors for the first time last season, after finishing third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 1,770. He led the league in yards per reception (18.2) and is arguably the most explosive receiver in the league after the catch.

He caught 77 of his 121 targets for 1,405 yards and 6 TD while adding another 365 yards on the ground and 8 TD. Those eight rushing scores were the most ever by a wide receiver, and he’s the first wideout to lead his team in rushing touchdowns since the merger. There will be no shortage of teams lining up for his services.

And that’s the beauty of Deebo’s request just one week out from the NFL Draft. It gives receiver starved teams who are armed with plenty of draft capital a chance to make a move for Samuel, as he’s a proven commodity at the NFL level.

Deebo hasn’t announced where he’d like to be traded, although the last post he liked on Instagram was Dallas Cowboys related.

The Cowboys are in the market for a wide receiver after letting Amari Cooper go, but so are a handful of other teams as well. The Jets, Falcons, Browns, Bears, Texans, Chiefs and Packers all need a number one option, but any team that trades for him must be prepared to give up a lot.

San Francisco would likely be looking for compensation similar to what Green Bay got for Davante Adams. That haul was worth a first and second-round pick, and once acquired Samuel would likely covet a deal close to the ones that Tyreek Hill ($30 million per season) and Adams ($28.5 million per season) received.

The most logical trading partner for the Niners is the Jets. They’re an AFC team, they hold five of the top-69 picks in this year’s draft, and there’s familiarity for Samuel with the coaching staff. Former San Fan DC Robert Saleh is New York’s head coach, while former Niners passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur is the Jets OC.

Earlier this off-season, the Jets went hard after Hill, so expect them to make a play for Samuel as well.

Where Do Niners Go From Here

If Samuel does get dealt expect 49ers futures to take a hit. Samuel is a unique talent and the Niners receiver cupboard is bare behind him. Of the San Francisco receivers currently on the roster, only Brandon Aiyuk caught more than 24 passes last season.

Any trade for Samuel would have to include a high draft pick which the Niners could use to select a wideout next week. The problem is no one in this Draft class can replicate Samuel’s rushing and receiving skills, the former trait perhaps being the most important.

Only three teams threw less frequently than San Francisco last season, and we shouldn’t expect that to change if they transition to Trey Lance at QB. It’s possible that they could attempt to use Aiyuk, who’s also great with the ball in his hands, in a similar fashion to Samuel, but there’s clearly a drop-off in skill and physicality.

Bottom line, if you’re holding a 49ers Super Bowl or NFC West ticket right now you can’t be happy. San Francisco is clearly worse without him, and won’t be worthy of being a top contender in 2022 should he depart.


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