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Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 7

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Oct 22, 2022 · 7:00 AM PDT

Dak Prescott throws a pass versus the Lions
Nov 17, 2019; Detroit, MI, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes as Detroit Lions outside linebacker Devon Kennard (42) applies pressure during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
  • Dallas is laying 6.5 points in the Lions vs Cowboys odds on Sunday (Oct. 23) in Week 7 NFL action at AT&T Stadium
  • Dak Prescott (thumb) returns as the Cowboys’ starting QB after missing the past five games
  • Keep reading for the complete Lions vs Cowboys odds, plus analysis, injury news, and a betting prediction

When Dak Prescott went down after Week 1 with a thumb injury, most experts predicted a lost season for the Cowboys (4-2, 2-1 home). Dallas was turning to unproven backup Cooper Rush for an undetermined amount of time, and few believed he could produce enough offense for the Cowboys to win games. Read on for some analysis of Lions vs Cowboys.

Turns out Rush didn’t need to lead Dallas to that many points in order to stay competitive. That’s because the Cowboys’ defense has continued their excellent play from a season ago, and almost single-handedly carried the team to four wins in five games without Prescott.

Now Dak returns for a home date against the Lions (1-4, 0-2 away) on Sunday, and the Week 7 NFL odds are pointing to a comfortable Dallas victory.

Lions vs Cowboys Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Detroit Lions +6.5 (-110) +240 O 49 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-110) -285 U 49 (-110)

Odds as of October 21 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

The Cowboys are currently 6.5-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 49. The spread originally opened at -7, but steady Detroit money has brought the number down half a point. The Lions were drawing 70% of the spread handle as 7-point underdogs, on 49% of the ATS bets.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with CBS getting a rare chance to broadcast an all-NFC matchup.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

The Cowboys went 4-1 with Rush under center despite averaging just 21 points per contest. Rush didn’t exceed 235 passing yards in any of his starts, partly due to inefficiency but largely because he rarely played from behind. Dallas held its opponents below 18 points four times, allowing fewer than two touchdowns on three separate occasions.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks sixth in total defense per DVOA, and third in points allowed. Most importantly for this matchup, however, is their 27.6% pressure rate led by NFL DPOY odds favorite Micah Parsons. As we’ll discuss later, Jared Goff struggles badly with pressure and is fresh off a dreadful performance under duress.

As for Prescott, his return should significantly boost Dallas’ offensive productivity. The Cowboys enter play with the league’s 27th-ranked passing attack, and the 10th-lowest-scoring offense.

With Prescott in command, Dallas led the NFL in scoring last year averaging 31.2 points per game. Prescott threw for 4,449 yards and a career-high 37 TD, while he’s 3-0 all-time against the Lions.

Detroit Lions Betting Trends

The Lions’ offense meanwhile, was humming along until they ran into New England last time out. Detroit was averaging 35 points per contest through five games but were shut out by the Patriots.

Goff completed only 54.3% of his passes for 229 yards and earned a laughable 7.7 QBR, the second-worst mark since his rookie season. The 28-year-old was under pressure on 46% of his dropbacks, and when that happens he’s bound to struggle.

Goff is completing only 49% of his throws with the heat on this season, with three of his four picks coming when facing pressure. New England boasts a strong pass rush, but one that’s not nearly as fierce as the Cowboys. Expect the Dallas front seven to feast in this matchup.

Injury-wise, good news may be heading the Lions’ way. Stud running back D’Andre Swift is questionable to play after missing back-to-back games with shoulder and ankle injuries.

The wide receiver situation is a bit murky though, as Josh Reynolds and DJ Chark are also questionable, but neither had practiced prior to Friday.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense is just flat-out bad. They rank dead last per DVOA, and are surrendering a league-worst 34 points per game. Needless to say, the Cowboys’ offense is primed for success.

Lions vs Cowboys Prediction

Under 49 seems like a fine target in this matchup given the strength of Dallas’ defense. However, with Dak back under center, there’s a chance the Cowboys’ offense erupts against the league’s worst D.

For that reason, we’re going to target the under on the Lions team total instead. Detroit’s offense is still getting a ton of respect despite the fact that they racked up points against some pretty mediocre defenses. If not for 36 and 45-point efforts against the Commanders and Seahawks, the outlook on Goff and the Lions would be much different.

Last time out versus New England was the first time they’ve faced a strong defense since Week 1, and they couldn’t muster a single point. They averaged only 4.9 yards per play and converted just four of 18 times combined on third and fourth down.

Pick: Detroit Lions Under 20.5 Points (-105), 1 unit

2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 4-4, -0.48 units


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