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Dolphins Receiving 74% of ATS Money vs Redskins in Week 6 Battle of Winless Teams

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 3:51 PM PDT

Josh Rosen and the Dolphins are getting a lot of the action in their matchup against fellow winless NFL team, the Washington Redskins. Photo from @WPTV (Twitter).
  • Washington opened as -5 favorites, but that line has since changed to -3.5
  • Both teams went 7-9 last year and are a combined 0-9 so far this year
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

If ever there was a game that helps explain the desire to bet on sports, Sunday’s matchup between the Washington Redskins (0-5) and the Miami Dolphins (0-4) might be it. On paper, this looks like a total dud. But it shouldn’t keep you from placing a wager and thus injecting some excitement.

There’s a split camp among bettors in this one, with sportsbooks are reporting that Washington is receiving 58% of bets. Miami, meanwhile, is receiving 74% of the against-the-spread (ATS) money as the 3.5-point underdog.

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Miami Dolphins +160 +3.5 (-111) Over 41.5 (-116)
Washington Redskins -185 -3.5 (-109) Under 41.5 (-104)

* Odds taken 10/12/19

These teams have no wins between them and they’ve combined to cover the spread just once in nine games (as you can see upon viewing the Redskins vs. Dolphins odds and stats). So, it looks like a real toss up. But somebody’s gotta win, right? Here’s a breakdown of what to look out for.

Case Keenum Returns

After missing last week’s game with an injury, Washington quarterback Case Keenum is back in action. He’s the best option the Redskins have under center, so that’s certainly good news for the Redskins.

Then again, that’s not really saying much. In four starts, Keenum has seven touchdowns and four interceptions, to go with the 21st-ranked quarterback rating in the NFL. He hasn’t been a disaster, but he hasn’t been a game-breaker either.

One positive note about Keenum’s return is that he’ll be reunited with his top target, rookie receiver Terry McLaurin. In the three games they’ve played together, McLaurin has caught 16 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Keenum to McLaurin could be a winning combo on Sunday.

Dolphins Were Strong at Home Last Year

Yes, the Dolphins are 0-3 at home this year with a minus-112 point differential, but let’s consider the opponents: the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers, all  playoff teams in 2018 and legitimate contenders again.

Last season, the Dolphins went 6-2 at home. It’s definitely an edge to play in front of a home crowd, though it’s an edge Miami is still looking to take advantage of this year.

Is Josh Rosen Making Strides?

In the Dolphins’ last game, quarterback Josh Rosen turned in one of the best performances of his young career. Against the Chargers — a top-10 passing defense — Rosen completed 17-of-24 passes for 180 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

That’s not a glamorous stat line, but it was his best-ever completion percentage and a yards-per-attempt mark (7.5) that put him on par with most NFL quarterbacks. Remember, this is a 22-year-old who was thrown into the fire in Arizona last season and is still finding his way, so any step forward is worth paying attention to.

Decision Time

This shapes up to be a bad game between two bad teams. Though the Redskins might seem like an enticing play with Keenum back to face the Dolphins’ league-worst defense, I’d advise taking the Dolphins. As a home underdog, after a bye week, it’s no wonder the bulk of the ATS money is going to Miami in what appears to be a toss-up game.

Pick: Dolphins, +3.5 (-111)

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