NFL Draft Over/Unders – Odds & Picks for Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs & More

• NFL Draft position over/unders have been released for some of this year’s most prized prospects
• The Jets desperately want to upgrade an anemic pass rush which makes Arvell Reese their ideal target
• See the NFL Draft over/under odds and picks for Reese, Caleb Downs and more, plus my favorite bets in this market

The NFL Draft is exactly three weeks away, and while there is no mystery about who the Raiders are taking at pick number one, the rest of the top-10 is fairly wide open.

Names like Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs and Jeremiyah Love are sure to be top-10 selections, and their draft order and future homes can now be wagered on over at DraftKings.

Keep reading for the complete set of available NFL Draft over/under odds, plus my favorite picks to target.

NFL Draft Over/Under Odds

My number-one selection in these NFL Draft odds is Reese to be a top-two pick (i.e. under 2.5). Yes, you have to eat some pretty heavy juice on the number, but I bet his odds will be exponentially shorter by Draft night. I’m also targeting Carnell Tate to go under his draft projection, and for Jeremiyah Love to fall out of the top-four.

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NFL Draft Over/Under Pick #1: Arvell Reese Under 2.5

• Arvell Reese Under 2.5 (-250 at DraftKings)

Fernando Mendoza is going to be the number one pick, but that’s only because quarterback is by far and away the most valuable position in sports. If we were grading out this year’s class from a raw talent perspective, it’s hard to argue that Reese isn’t the biggest game changer on the board.

Reese’s pure football instincts are second to none, and he has the ability to affect the game both versus the run and pass from his outside linebacker position. The Ohio State star racked up 69 tackles in his senior year, including 9 for a loss, as well as 6.5 sacks, 9 run stuffs and 2 pass breakups.

He’s long, explosive and athletic, and will instantly upgrade whichever organization he goes to. There’s no danger of a team trading up into the top-5 this season for a quarterback, meaning the chances of the Jets not staying put at pick 2 are slim and none.

As it happens, New York is desperate to upgrade its pass rush that produced the second fewest sacks, and a run defense than ranked bottom-eight in success rate. Reese helps plug both of those holes, and will fit in nicely with the veterans the Jets brought in through free agency to help bolster their chances of clearing their NFL win totals projection.

NFL Draft Over/Under Pick #2: Carnell Tate Under 7.5

• Carnell Tate Under 7.5 (-175 at DraftKings)

Moving on to Tate, who I highly doubt falls past the Browns on Draft night. The Browns are in major need of an impact player in their receiving room, but just in case Cleveland does pass on the Ohio State star, he won’t slip past another wide receiver needy team in Washington at pick 7.

Tate is the latest in the long line of incredible Buckeyes wideout prospects from the last few years. He wasn’t even the most hyped player in his own receiving room last season, but fortunately for him teammate Jeremiah Smith isn’t Draft eligible yet.

Tate averaged over 17 yards per catch in 2025, and hauled in 9 TD. He’s a precise route runner, who rarely drops passes, and has immaculate body control. The 6-2, 192 pounder is also a willing and capable blocker, a trait that NFL coaches salivate over.

I’d love to see him fall to the Commanders to give Jaden Daniels another weapon, but the Browns need playmakers on offense, and he’s the top option not named Jeremiyah Love.

NFL Draft Over/Under Pick #3: Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5

• Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5 (-180 at DraftKings)

Speaking of Love, it’s been eight years since an RB was taken in the top four picks. Given the roster needs of the teams picking 1 through 4 this year, I don’t think Love is going to buck that trend.

Top-4 Drafted Running Backs – Last 10 Years

Taking a running back in the top-10 is not a priority, it’s a luxury. Las Vegas, New York, Arizona and Tennessee are not in a position to be making luxury selections, and if they do their 2027 NFL playoff odds are going to be even long than their price in 2026.

There are some mocking Love as high as pick 4, but I think that’s foolish regardless of his talent. Yes, he has exceptional speed, forces missed tackles at an elite rate and is a capable pass catcher, but he doesn’t play a premium position. That’s especially important given the background of the Titans new GM and head coach.

GM Mike Borgonzi is from the Chiefs tree, who’ve always valued premium positions early on. New head coach Robert Saleh meanwhile, is a defense first thinker, and he’ll want to put his stamp on his first Titans Draft with a defensive difference maker. I simply can’t imagine them passing on players like David Bailey, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs or Rueben Bain, who impact the game on every down they play, for a running back.