NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread for Conference Championships
- Get our top expert Conference Championship best bets for the NFC and AFC Title Games
- In our Conference Championship ATS picks the Cincinnati Bengals are getting a clean sweep of picks in the AFC Championship
- Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for the Conference Championships
Two games remain to decide who will be playing in Super Bowl 57 in two weeks. Will home teams prevail in the Conference Championships? Can a rookie QB make it to the Super Bowl before losing his first game in the league? We make our NFL expert picks against the spread for the Conference Championships here.
Last week we went 7-5 in the Divisional Round leaving our season-long ATS record at 96-96-7.
Read on for our top Conference Championship ATS picks below.
Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Conference Championships
|Ryan Metivier||Zach Reger||Bob Duff|
|Bengals (+1.5)||49ers (+2.5)||Bengals (+1.5)|
|Eagles (-2.5)||Bengals (+1.5)||49ers (+2.5)|
|23-33-3 Season Record||34-25-2 Season Record||32-24-1 Season Record|
Odds as of January 28. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
Our expert ATS picks above include three picks on the Bengals over the Chiefs and a split on the NFC Title Game.
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- Bengals (+1.5)
The Bengals and Joe Burrow are scorching hot coming into this AFC title game. Burrow is on a 20-5 personal ATS run and is 16-1 ATS in his last 17 games against non-division opponents. The Bengals are also 13-5 ATS this season and 21-5 in their last 26 games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 6-11-1 and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing a team with a winning record.
The Bengals have owned the Chiefs of late winning each of the past three meetings and six of the past seven. With the uncertainty around the ankle of Patrick Mahomes, I’m riding with the Bengals as +1.5 underdogs.
- Eagles (2.5)
I love this 49ers story as much as the next guy, moving down to a rookie third-string quarterback who may win a Super Bowl before he loses his first career NFL game. Brock Purdy still doesn’t know what an NFL loss feels like and San Fran is riding a 10-game winning streak. They were 13-4 on the season, but three of those four losses did come on the road, a place they’ll be on Sunday.
Eagles’ sentiments took a dip after two losses near the end of the season, but those came without Jalen Hurts. Hurts is back and just led the Eagles to a 38-7 win last week. With him under center Philly is 15-1 this season combined in the regular season and playoffs.
Purdy got the win last week, but it was close, 19-12 over Dallas, and San Fran failed to score a touchdown until the fourth quarter. This will be Purdy’s first career road playoff game and the all-time record for rookie quarterbacks on the road in their first Conference Championship game is not a good one at 16-38 straight up. I’ll back the Eagles laying under a field goal at home here.
Jalen Hurts is 15-1 as a starter this season.#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/Y5mUJoNE3J
— JAKIB Sports (@JAKIBSports) January 24, 2023
- 49ers (+2.5)
The Eagles did not even have to break a sweat last week facing the Giants. That will change this week as they go up against the 49ers stout defense. They are physical and have the speed to keep the Eagles offense under control.
San Francisco’s offense will also put up much more of a fight than the Giants did. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk will be tougher to defend than Richie James and company. As long as Brock Purdy does not turn the ball over, the 49ers will be in this one until the end. I expect this one to be a close matchup throughout.
- Bengals (+1.5)
Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes and loves to play spoiler. Patrick Mahomes might not be 100%, but he will be on the field for the Chiefs. Kansas City has the front four to cause some havoc against Cincinnati’s banged-up offensive line, but Joe Burrow has essentially played his entire career without a strong offensive line. The backend of Kansas City’s defense is vulnerable and will have a long day with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Bengals defense has been playing great down the stretch, and even if the Chiefs move the ball and get a lead, I am confident in their second-half adjustments to stay in the game. I see Joe Burrow moving to 4-0 against Patrick Mahomes.
Joe Burrow is 18-1 ATS in his last 19 games as favorite of less than 7 points.
Bengals are 21-5 ATS overall in their last 26.
A covering machine
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) January 26, 2023
- Bengals (+1.5)
This may be the fifth straight home conference title game for the Chiefs, but it would be wrong to suggest that Kansas City is enjoying the home cooking. The Chiefs are 2-2 ATS at home in the previous four AFC Championship Games.
Of course, that includes last season’s setback to the Bengals, who arrived in KC as 7-point underdogs and won 27-24. The Bengals were 3-0 ATS as away underdogs in last season’s playoffs. They’re 1-0 in that scenario following last week’s 27-10 win at Buffalo as 5.5-point road underdogs.
Cincinnati is an AFC-leading 13-5 ATS overall this season. Away from home, the Bengals are 8-2 ATS on the season and 8-1 over their past nine games.
At home this season, the Chiefs are a dismal 2-6-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-1 ATS as a home favorite.
The NFL public betting splits are loving Cincinnati. The Bengals are drawing massive percentages in both handle and bets for the moneyline and the point spread on this game.
- 49ers (+2.5)
Home? Away? Favorite? Underdog? It really doesn’t matter. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers are coverage monsters.
Even though San Francisco lost to the Los Angeles Rams in last year’s game, the Niners still covered as 3.5-point road underdogs in a 20-17 loss. In 2017, a crushing 37-20 decision over the Green Bay Packers enabled San Fran to cover as the 8-point home chalk. The 49ers are 3-1 ATS in their past four NFC Championship Game appearances.
In Philadelphia’s most recent NFC Championship Game appearance, the Eagles covered against the Minnesota Vikings as 3-point home underdogs. As a favorite in the betting lines, Philadelphia is 1-3 in NFC title games.
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