Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 1

• Get our top NFL picks this week from September 10-11, 2023
• It’s a clean sweep of picks on Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in our ATS picks
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 1 below

Another season of football is here and our NFL experts have been tasked with picking their top three NFL ATS picks each week. This week there’s a clear consensus that taking the points with the Steelers is the way to go, while big favorites like the Commanders and Ravens have also made the our NFL expert picks against the spread selections.

NFL Expert Picks Today

In this week’s expert ATS picks there is plenty of love for the Steelers as home underdogs as all three of our predictors are taking them at +2.5 odds. Odds from September 8.

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Ryan Metivier

Browns (+2) 

Joe Burrow should be under center, but it’s impossible to know how much the calf injury he suffered in the offseason will affect his play in Week 1. He won’t be getting the easiest of starts after not playing at all in the preseason, going to divisional rival Cleveland. The Browns won at home versus Cincy last year 32-13 and are 8-2 versus the Bengals in the last ten games between the teams. Burrow also only owns a 1-4 SU record versus Cleveland.

The Browns’ defense is solid and ranked 5th in passing yards allowed per game. If Deshaun Watson even slightly improves from what he showed in his limited action last season. their offense has a chance to be special with Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper and David Njoku.

This is also a great spot for divisional home dogs. Divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 7-0 against the spread since 2018, 15-2 since 2012 and 21-5 since 2009.

Steelers (+2.5)

The Steelers looked like one of the best teams this preseason going 3-0. At home last year they were only 4-4, but those four losses came bey three, four, seven and two points.

Brock Purdy was one of the surprise stories last season and still hasn’t lost a game in which he’s started and finished. That’s because he was knocked out of the NFC Championship game against the Eagles with a torn UCL ligament in his right elbow. Purdy underwent surgery in March but has made incredible progress to be back as the starter, so much so that San Fran traded away Trey Lance. But it’s still his first real game back from injury and Pittsburgh and the league have had a whole offseason to study film on Purdy.

TJ Watt is back from injury and the Steelers were 8-2 ATS with him in the lineup last year. They’re also in Mike Tomlin’s favorite spot as an underdog where he is 53-30-4 ATS as Steelers head coach. The Steelers could be great upset picks for Week 1, but also look good ATS.

Giants (+3.5) 

The Giants haven’t had much success versus their division rivals in recent years. The Giants are only 1-12 versus the Cowboys since 2017. Last year Dallas won 23-16 on the road and 28-20 at home.

While Dallas was the better team last year at 12-5 compared to New York’s 9-7-1 record, the Giants were one of the top, in fact they were the top team ATS in the entire league at 13-4-0. If you include playoff stats, the Giants were 14-5-0. Dallas was 9-7-1.

When the Giants play in New York the Under is usually in play as they’re games have gone under the total at a 16-4-1 clip at home. If that trend continue this could be a close game.

This game also falls into the same divisional home underdog trend as we mentioned earlier. And we get it at a better price with the Giants being more than a field goal underdog in the NFL lines.

Bob Duff

Steelers (+2.5) 

A year ago, the 49ers stumbled badly as Week 1 road favorites at Chicago. Meanwhile, the Steelers went into Cincinnati and embarrassed the reigning AFC champion Bengals.

The season prior, Pittsburgh wound up posting a Week 1 at Buffalo. Mike Tomlin always has his team ready to go from the get-go.

Since he became Steelers head coach in 2007, Pittsburgh is an NFL-best 15-4-3 ATS as a home underdog. Pittsburgh is 8-2-1 ATS as a home dog since 2017. Meanwhile, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 2-4 SU in Week 1 games.

Will the streak continue for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season? pic.twitter.com/pgTSaVtdUc

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 8, 2023

Commanders (-7) 

Did you know that Caesars Sportsbook is offering +1300 odds on any NFL team going an unprecedented 0-17 this season? At that price, it just might be worth it to place a small stipend on that prop with the Arizona Cardinals in mind. Interested? Claim your Caesars promo code for Week 1 here.

I covered the 2008 Detroit Lions as they went 0-16, so I know what a generationally bad team looks like. Whatever it is that the Cardinals are cooking up, it definitely resembles that recipe.

Sure, 0-17 is a remote long shot, but we are talking about a team that is a 7-point home underdog in Week 1, and deservedly so. Their QB1 is Josh Dobbs, who’s never won an NFL game as a starter. In Washington, Arizona will be facing a Commanders team with a vastly underrated talent pool. This one could and should get ugly for the Cardinals.

Bills (-2.5) 

You just know that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are tired of hearing about how the arrival of Aaron Rodgers has rejuvenated the New York Jets and turned them into Super Bowl contenders. The Bills circled the Week 1 MNF game on the calendar months ago.

They can’t wait to get to MetLife Stadium and remind the NFL of how the world order in the AFC East has unfolded since Tom Brady packed up and left New England.

Yes, Rodgers is 2-0 SU and ATS against Buffalo. But people drinking the Rodgers Kool-Aid seem to be forgetting that he’s coming off what for him was his worst NFL season.

Zach Reger

Ravens (-9.5) 

Laying big points in your picks against the spread in Week 1 can be scary, but the Ravens have proven year in and year out they that come to play. Last season, they beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1 and covered the 7.5-point spread. 2021 was the only time since they lost since 2017, and that game went to overtime. From 2017 to 2020, the Ravens put a beating on each of their opponents. The scores were 38-6, 59-10, 47-3, and 20-0. To do the math, the Ravens have outscored their Week 1 opponents 215-61 since 2017, and that includes their overtime loss in 2021.

CJ Stroud is getting his first start, and the Ravens defense has to be one of the worst draws you could get for your first career start. I do not expect Houston to move the ball effectively in this one. Lamar just got paid and has the most weapons he has ever had in Baltimore. The Ravens win this one by double digits in my NFL picks this week. They’d also be a good pick in NFL parlays.

Titans (+3)

The Titans are one of, if not the most, undervalued teams in the NFL. Last season, the Titans got off to a 7-3 start before losing seven straight to end the season. They had terrible injury luck but were still in a lot of close games that they should not have been in. Tennessee was minutes away from making the playoffs with Josh Dobbs as their quarterback. Now, they are as healthy as they have ever been and added DeAndre Hopkins to the mix.

The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara in this one, so I expect Jeffrey Simons and the rest of the Tennessee defense to have a strong outing about New Orleans’s new-look offense. On the other side of the ball, DeAndre Hopkins will demand respect which will result in Derrick Henry seeing fewer eight-man boxes making him a good choice for NFL player props. I believe the Titans have more talent on the field, and perhaps more importantly, they have the coaching advantage with Mike Vrabel. It would not surprise me if the Titans win outright.

#Titans Derrick Henry hasn't gotten to face the Saints before. He's looking forward to the opportunity this wk. pic.twitter.com/5NxTrktjO4

— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) September 7, 2023

Steelers (+2.5) 

Mike Tomlin thrives as a home underdog. In his career, Tomlin is 13-4-3 against the spread (77%) as a home underdog and is 7-1-1 ATS since 2018. He also ensures that the Steelers are ready to play in Week 1. Last season, the Steelers won outright as 6.5-point underdogs against the Bengals, who were fresh off a Super Bowl appearance.

The 49ers have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but going up to Pittsburgh is not an easy task. San Francisco has been known to start the season off slow as well. They are 0-3 in picks against the spread in their last three Week 1 games. Kenny Pickett is entering Year 2, and the offense should be improved this season. This game should be a close one and come down to the wire, so give me the points in my ATS picks.