Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16
By Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated: December 24, 2022 at 5:58 pm ESTPublished:
- Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 16 on Christmas weekend
- Can the Bengals cover as 3-point road favorites in frigid New England?
- Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 16 below
Holiday football is here with a full slate of games on Christmas Eve, followed by three prime-time games on Christmas Day. Our expert NFL picks against the spread include picks from seven different games this weekend.
It was a combined even split last week at 4-4-1 for the experts, moving us to 75-70-7 for the season.
Each week we’ll make our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.
Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 16
| Matt McEwan | Ryan Metivier | Zach Reger | Bob Duff |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Bengals (-3) | Bears (+8) | Lions (-2.5) |
| — | Falcons (+6.5) | Steelers (-2.5) | Bengals (-3) |
| — | Buccaneers (-7.5) | Broncos (-3) | Raiders (+2.5) |
| 7-13-1 Season Record | 17-25-3 Season Record | 26-17-2 Season Record | 25-15-1 Season Record |
Odds as of December 23. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
Our expert ATS picks above include picks on eight teams from seven different games on Christmas weekend, including two picks on Joe Burrow and the Bengals to cover on the road in New England.
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Ryan Metivier
- Bengals (-3) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Cincy is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They’re 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS. They’re also on an 11-1 ATS run. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have won six in a row and face the 7-7 Patriots who just lost on a last-second boneheaded lateral play last week. You’d have to think it will be hard to get themselves back up after that humiliating defeat. It was also their third loss in their past four weeks.
In two of those four weeks, the Pats scored only ten points. That won’t be enough against a Bengals’ team ranked fifth in PPG at 26.4.
- Falcons (+6.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Falcons haven’t won a game in three weeks, but much like they’ve done all season, they hang around and keep things close. Last week they lost 21-18 in New Orleans. Their two losses prior were 19-16 (PIT) and 19-13 (WASH). Of their nine losses, only two have been by ten or more points.
It’s hard to get excited about Desmond Ritter at QB who just passed for 13/26 and 97 yards last week, however, the Ravens aren’t in any better shape. Starting QB Lamar Jackson exited their game against the Broncos early on December 4 and will miss out on Saturday once again.
Baltimore went on to defeat Denver 10-9 in that game, followed by a 16-14 win in Pittsburgh and then a 13-3 road loss in Cleveland last week. Tyler Huntley was just 17/30 for 138 yards and an interception in that defeat. He was 8/12 for 88 yards against Pittsburgh. Now Huntley has appeared on the Wednesday injury report with a shoulder injury as well. Rookie Anthony Brown could be in line to start if Huntley can’t go.
Tom Brady Trace McSorley
7 Super Bowls 0
644 Pass TD 1
No Kid from Briar Woods Yes
No Wearing No 9 Yes pic.twitter.com/3gaPwyagv1— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 21, 2022
- Buccaneers (-7.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Bucs will face the Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. Not only that, but backup Colt McCoy is also out, meaning the Cards will turn to third-string QB Trace McSorley. Last week the Cardinals lost 24-15 in Denver and McSorley came on in relief of McCoy to throw for 7/15, 95 yards and two interceptions.
Arizona has now lost four in a row and six of seven, with their lone win coming against the Rams. At 6-8, Tampa Bay isn’t exactly much better than the 4-10 Cardinals. But, they do lead the NFC South, so this is a game they desperately need to win to hold onto the division lead. They’re only 2-4 on the road, but home field has done nothing for Arizona who are 1-7 at State Farm Stadium.
It was another loss last week for Tom Brady and the Bucs, but they did jump out to a 17-0 lead over the Bengals before collapsing. If they can do something similar on Sunday Night, their defense which ranks seventh in YPG allowed and sixth in passing, should be able to hold McSorley and the Cards in check.
Zach Reger
- Bears (+8) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Chicago is fresh off of a cover against the Philadelphia Eagles, so they have shown that they can play with the top teams in the league. The Bills are in an interesting situation. They just beat the Dolphins as time expired in what was a big AFC East matchup, and next week they face the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. Justin Fields is capable of making big plays, and this game could be a lot closer than many imagine. I like the home underdogs to cover the spread in Chicago.
Justin Fields with his weekly "holy cow" moment. Just absurd. pic.twitter.com/GF5X9eG5Kn
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 18, 2022
- Steelers (-2.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh has won three of their last four games, and the Raiders somehow got the win last week. The Steelers get Kenny Pickett back which will help the passing game, and the Steelers’ defense has been strong against the run. While the Raiders beat the Patriots, they have struggled to hold onto leads. Josh McDaniels is difficult to trust, and with the Steelers gaining some momentum, I give the edge to the home team.
- Broncos (-3) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for this weekend here
Denver has looked like a football team the past two weeks, going 1-1 in that span. Russell Wilson played well against the Chiefs and will get the start after getting the week off against Arizona. The Rams, on the other hand, are trending in the opposite direction. Injuries have decimated the team, and Baker Mayfield returned to his normal form on Monday night after a thrilling win against the Raiders. The Broncos’ defense has never been questioned this season, and they will make it difficult for the Rams to move the ball. With the offense improving, Denver should get the win and cover on Christmas Day.
Bob Duff
- Lions (-2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
At 10-4, the Lions share the second-best ATS mark in the NFL this season. But this is new ground for them. Detroit is an away favorite for the first time in 2022. Despite their current 6-1 SU stretch, the 7-7 Lions remain +120 long shots to qualify for postseason play in the NFL playoff odds.
In fact, the last time the Lions were favored on the road was November 22, 2020, at Carolina. Detroit failed to cover as 3-point picks in a 20-0 loss. The outcome will be different this time.
- Bengals (-3) at BetMGM
With the way New England’s game against the Raiders ended, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots will be bouncing back against the Bengals. In the Bengals vs Patriots picks, New England is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog.
At 6-2 ATS on the road, the Bengals have covered in more road games than any NFL team. They’re 4-2 as the away chalk.
- Raiders (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
This game will be played on the six-day anniversary of the Immaculate Interception. The Raiders beat New England 30-24 when DE Chandler Jones intercepted a Jakobi Meyers lateral and rambled for a TD on the last play of regulation.
For some time now, the Raiders have been getting the best of the Steelers. Las Vegas is 2-0 straight up and ATS in the past two meetings. The Raiders are also on 4-1 and 6-2 SU runs when facing Pittsburgh. As well, they’re on 5-0, 7-1 and 9-2 ATS rolls against Pittsburgh. At Pittsburgh, Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in the past five games.
Sports Editor
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
