Goff chasing Mahomes for top spot among NFL MVP favorites
- Patrick Mahomes still sits atop the NFL MVP average odds at +330
- Jared Goff just torched the Vikings for 5 TD passes and 465 yards – a perfect passer rating
- The Rams’ pivot has emerged as Mahomes’ top competition for the award
With a quarter of the season in the books, two young quarterbacks have emerged as the favorites for NFL MVP.
The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff of the Rams.
2018 NFL MVP Odds
Both Goff and Mahomes can rightfully lay claim to the top odds so far.
Their teams are first and second in points per game, respectively. Goff’s Rams are putting up a blistering 468.5 yard per game, while Mahomes has Kansas City eighth.
Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | +400 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | +500 |
| Drew Brees | NO | +600 |
| Tom Brady | NE | +800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | +800 |
*Follow the link in the table to see more betting options
The Chiefs are one of nine teams averaging over 400 yards game, and the Rams are up 20 on second place, so the difference isn’t that drastic.
But with both neck-and-neck for the award through four games, does either have the edge?
Potential NFL MVP Mahomes following in Goff’s footsteps
When the Rams drafted Jared Goff first-overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, they made him sit.
So when the Chiefs pounced on Mahomes 10th-overall in 2017, with Alex Smith already in the fold, the expectation was the same.
So far, so good.
Mike says he would give the title of NFL MVP to Patrick Mahomes at this moment. Would you? pic.twitter.com/5s6IlVvmHi
— PTI (@PTI) October 2, 2018
Mahomes sits just outside the top-ten in passing yards, two behind Matt Stafford. His 65.2% completion percentage is also 11th among passers with at least 90 completions.
He leads the league with 14 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Because of that, he has the best TD:INT ratio in the league.
In short, we have yet to see any of the weaknesses brought up in the pre-draft process.
Could Goff get NFL MVP love in year three?
As 2018 wound down, the Rams rode a monstrous December from Todd Gurley to the playoffs. It also got the running back some NFL MVP love.
He’d have to pull out all the stops once again if he wants to steal the title of favorite from his QB.
Jared Goff is your MVP right now. A quarterback playing out of his mind on a team playing out of their collective minds. Don't @ me. #Rams #MINvsLAR #TNF
— James D Koh (@JamesDKoh) September 28, 2018
Goff is one of four passers tied for second in the NFL in touchdowns. He’s also done a good job of taking care of the football, with just two picks.
His passer rating is almost a point higher than Mahomes, and he’s just behind Ben Roethlisberger in total yards. He’s also tied for top spot in yard per attempt.
Both have had strong seasons.
Could NFL MVP debate be decided over next seven?
With the way both teams have started, the last portion of the season may not mean as much.
That is, unless there’s an NFL MVP race going on.
| 1,406 | Yards | 1,200 |
| 11 / 2 | TD / INT | 14 / 0 |
| 72.4 | Completion % | 65.2 |
| 127.3 | Rating | 126.5 |
| 10.5 | Avg | 8.7 |
| 5 | Sacks | 5 |
Here’s a look at the next eight games for the Rams and Chiefs.
Goff’s MVP claims will be tested right off the bat. The Seahawks and Broncos aren’t as imposing as they once were, but Denver almost knocked off KC. The Garoppolo-less 49ers are tough to gauge, but that’s still three-straight road games.
| Week | Chiefs Opponent | Total PFF Defensive Grade | Rams Opponent | Total PFF Defensive Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | vs Jaguars | 74.6 | @ Seahawks | 71.0 |
| Week 6 | @ Patriots | 81.2 | @ Broncos | 71.5 |
| Week 7 | vs Bengals | 75.8 | @ 49ers | 55.5 |
| Week 8 | vs Broncos | 71.5 | vs Packers | 78.5 |
| Week 9 | @ Browns | 66.1 | @ Saints | 67.5 |
| Week 10 | vs Cardinals | 65.1 | vs Seahawks | 71.0 |
| Week 11 | @ Rams | 84.9 | vs Chiefs | 57.1 |
*Bold denotes common opponent
The Chiefs meanwhile, slingshot back and forth across the country. The primetime game in New England will be interesting, especially with the Patriots playing on Thursday Night in Week 5.
Their back-and-forth home and road dates wrap up with a game in LA against the Rams. The outcome of that one could decide the MVP award.
Who’s worth the money in the NFL MVP race?
When deciding between these two, experience may be the deciding factor this early in the season.
Despite the fact he’s been magical, Mahomes hasn’t been through the rigors of an NFL season. And he essentially red-shirted his rookie year. So will he look the same in Week 14 as he did in Week 4?
Goff’s 2018 is shaping up a lot like his 2017. His completion percentage will be good, he’s going to throw a lot of TDs, and so far he’s protecting the ball better.
Who is the MVP so far? @DeionSanders says it's not Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff, but it's Khalil Mack. Here's his First Quarter awards! 👀
📺: 21st & Prime https://t.co/gXAWJCucTO
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) October 3, 2018
If you wanted a deeper dive, getting Carson Wentz at +2500 seems like a steal if he can turn the Eagles around. And if Khalil Mack keeps strip-sacking people? Take that +3300. He’s turning heads.
But between the two young QBs who have taken 2018 by storm, Goff is your play among the favorites.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
