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After Clinching First-Round Bye, Packers’ 2020 Super Bowl Odds Sit at +1000

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 1:22 PM PDT

Aaron Rodgers
After securing a top-two seed in the NFC, can Aaron Rodgers lead the Green Bay Packeres to the Super Bowl? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • The Green Bay Packers locked up a first round bye with their win over the Lions
  • Since they’re skipping Wild Card weekend, the Pack have a clearer path to the Super Bowl
  • Is Green Bay a good buy, or should the Packers be avoided?

Despite some nerve-wracking moments in Week 17, the Green Bay Packers wrapped up a first round bye on Sunday, and in the process earned an easier path to the Super Bowl.

Now the Packers sit second behind the 49ers in the NFC; both awaiting their Divisional Round opponents. If things fall into place, they could end up in a championship game rematch, fighting it out for a spot in Super Bowl 54.

Super Bowl 54 Odds

Team Record Odds
Baltimore Ravens 14-2 +210
Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 +400
San Francisco 49ers 13-3 +400
New Orleans Saints 13-3 +600
Green Bay Packers 13-3 +1000
New England Patriots 12-4 +1000

Odds taken December 30th

The Packers entered Week 17 with the sixth-best Super Bowl odds. They trailed the Ravens, Saints, 49ers, Patriots and Chiefs according to the Super Bowl odds.

Surprisingly, earning the bye only moved them into fifth place.

Their value actually slid from +900 on average to +1000. So is the movement a misnomer? Or are the oddsmakers trying to tell us something?

Top Two Seed a Good Omen

In the past two seasons, just one team has made a Conference Championship game that wasn’t a first or second seed. The last team to make a Super Bowl that didn’t finish first or second in their conference?

The Baltimore Ravens. Who won Super Bowl XLVII.

Including that season, eight of the last 14 Conference Championship games have featured the top two teams.

So the odds are in the Packers’ favor to at least have a chance to play for a spot in the Super Bowl.

Packers’ Recent History Not on Their Side

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2011, Aaron Rodgers has led Green Bay to the playoffs six times. In five of those seasons they’ve won the NFC North.

Despite the regular season success, the Pack have stumbled in the playoffs.

Packers Results After Winning NFC North

Season Record Place in NFC Standings Result
2011 15-1 1st Lost Divisional Round
2012 11-5 3rd Lost Divisional Round
2013 8-7-1 4th Lost Wild Card Round
2014 12-4 2nd Lost Conference Championship
2016 10-6 4th Lost Conference Championship

While those last two appearances in the Conference Championship game sandwich a loss in the Divisional round, it still points back to one thing.

The Packers have struggled to get out of the NFC, despite having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

And considering the results of his last six games, there will be plenty of focus on Rodgers.

Aaron Rodgers’ Last Six Games

Week Opponent Comp/Att Yards TD/INT Rating Sack
Week 12 @ SF 20/33 104 1/0 75.8 5
Week 13 @ NYG 21/33 243 4/0 125.4 0
Week 14 vs WAS 18/28 195 1/0 96.6 4
Week 15 vs CHI 16/33 203 1/0 78.2 1
Week 16 @ MIN 26/40 216 0/1 68.3 3
Week 17 @ DET 27/55 323 2/1 72.0 1

To be clear, this isn’t an indictment of Rodgers. We’re still well aware of the fact he can make throws like this:

Outside of the Lions game though, his numbers have been very un-Rodgers like since Week 8. One reason is the defenses they’ve been playing.

The other is the reliance on Aaron Jones and the running game, which should serve the Packers well on Lambeau’s frozen tundra.

In fact, the Pack averaged 25 carries and 123 yards from Week 8-16. The ground game also accounted for eight touchdowns in that stretch.

Take away Rodgers’ one rushing score, and the Packers’ 17 rushing TDs are the most since they put up the same number in 2013.

Should You Bet on Green Bay?

Having a top-two seed and a guaranteed home game is massive if you’re looking to invest in the Packers.

Eyeing a Divisional date with either the  Saints, Eagles or Seahawks, the Packers are one game away from the NFC Championship.

But that Saints game looms large. If they get through the Vikings, they pose a significant challenge to the Packers regardless of venue.

It may be worth your while to wait it out and see what the Divisional Round holds for Rodgers and the Pack.

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