After Clinching First-Round Bye, Packers’ 2020 Super Bowl Odds Sit at +1000
- The Green Bay Packers locked up a first round bye with their win over the Lions
- Since they’re skipping Wild Card weekend, the Pack have a clearer path to the Super Bowl
- Is Green Bay a good buy, or should the Packers be avoided?
Despite some nerve-wracking moments in Week 17, the Green Bay Packers wrapped up a first round bye on Sunday, and in the process earned an easier path to the Super Bowl.
Now the Packers sit second behind the 49ers in the NFC; both awaiting their Divisional Round opponents. If things fall into place, they could end up in a championship game rematch, fighting it out for a spot in Super Bowl 54.
Super Bowl 54 Odds
Team | Record | Odds |
---|---|---|
Baltimore Ravens | 14-2 | +210 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | +400 |
San Francisco 49ers | 13-3 | +400 |
New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | +600 |
Green Bay Packers | 13-3 | +1000 |
New England Patriots | 12-4 | +1000 |
Odds taken December 30th
The Packers entered Week 17 with the sixth-best Super Bowl odds. They trailed the Ravens, Saints, 49ers, Patriots and Chiefs according to the Super Bowl odds.
Surprisingly, earning the bye only moved them into fifth place.
Their value actually slid from +900 on average to +1000. So is the movement a misnomer? Or are the oddsmakers trying to tell us something?
Top Two Seed a Good Omen
In the past two seasons, just one team has made a Conference Championship game that wasn’t a first or second seed. The last team to make a Super Bowl that didn’t finish first or second in their conference?
GAME. WINNER.@crosbykicks2 delivers the first-round playoff bye!#GBvsDET | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/xuZBr0gDkI
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 29, 2019
The Baltimore Ravens. Who won Super Bowl XLVII.
Including that season, eight of the last 14 Conference Championship games have featured the top two teams.
So the odds are in the Packers’ favor to at least have a chance to play for a spot in the Super Bowl.
Packers’ Recent History Not on Their Side
Since winning the Super Bowl in 2011, Aaron Rodgers has led Green Bay to the playoffs six times. In five of those seasons they’ve won the NFC North.
Despite the regular season success, the Pack have stumbled in the playoffs.
Packers Results After Winning NFC North
Season | Record | Place in NFC Standings | Result |
---|---|---|---|
2011 | 15-1 | 1st | Lost Divisional Round |
2012 | 11-5 | 3rd | Lost Divisional Round |
2013 | 8-7-1 | 4th | Lost Wild Card Round |
2014 | 12-4 | 2nd | Lost Conference Championship |
2016 | 10-6 | 4th | Lost Conference Championship |
While those last two appearances in the Conference Championship game sandwich a loss in the Divisional round, it still points back to one thing.
The Packers have struggled to get out of the NFC, despite having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
And considering the results of his last six games, there will be plenty of focus on Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers’ Last Six Games
Week | Opponent | Comp/Att | Yards | TD/INT | Rating | Sack |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 12 | @ SF | 20/33 | 104 | 1/0 | 75.8 | 5 |
Week 13 | @ NYG | 21/33 | 243 | 4/0 | 125.4 | 0 |
Week 14 | vs WAS | 18/28 | 195 | 1/0 | 96.6 | 4 |
Week 15 | vs CHI | 16/33 | 203 | 1/0 | 78.2 | 1 |
Week 16 | @ MIN | 26/40 | 216 | 0/1 | 68.3 | 3 |
Week 17 | @ DET | 27/55 | 323 | 2/1 | 72.0 | 1 |
To be clear, this isn’t an indictment of Rodgers. We’re still well aware of the fact he can make throws like this:
.@AaronRodgers12 makes an unreal throw to tie the game! #GoPackGo
?: #GBvsDET on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/HYJhHN7b2Y pic.twitter.com/R3qIbVpnuW— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2019
Outside of the Lions game though, his numbers have been very un-Rodgers like since Week 8. One reason is the defenses they’ve been playing.
The other is the reliance on Aaron Jones and the running game, which should serve the Packers well on Lambeau’s frozen tundra.
In fact, the Pack averaged 25 carries and 123 yards from Week 8-16. The ground game also accounted for eight touchdowns in that stretch.
AARON JONES GOES 56 YARDS! @Showtyme_33 #GoPackGo
?: #GBvsMIN on ESPN
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/amQPi4hFNM pic.twitter.com/A0cAj7Jgxu— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2019
Take away Rodgers’ one rushing score, and the Packers’ 17 rushing TDs are the most since they put up the same number in 2013.
Should You Bet on Green Bay?
Having a top-two seed and a guaranteed home game is massive if you’re looking to invest in the Packers.
Eyeing a Divisional date with either the Saints, Eagles or Seahawks, the Packers are one game away from the NFC Championship.
But that Saints game looms large. If they get through the Vikings, they pose a significant challenge to the Packers regardless of venue.
It may be worth your while to wait it out and see what the Divisional Round holds for Rodgers and the Pack.