Jaguars’ Odds to Win AFC South Fading After NFL Draft; Are They Worth Betting Now?
- The Jacksonville Jaguars followed up an AFC Championship appearance with a sub-.500 season in 2018
- Their odds of winning the division have fallen to +500 since the NFL Draft
- Is Jacksonville doomed to bottom feeder status once again, or are they a good value pick?
For a team that made the AFC Championship two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars have undergone a ton of change.
After replacing Blake Bortles with Nick Foles and adding to a loaded defense, expectations are high. They’re hoping that 2019 is more like their 10-6 season in 2017 versus the 5-11 one in 2018.
But right now the books aren’t seeing it. After a not-so-sexy draft, they have the worst NFL Divisional odds to win the AFC South, with their odds dropping to an average of +390 and as long as +500.
AFC South Odds
| Team | 2018 Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 10-6 | +125 |
| Houston Texans | 11-5 | +225 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | +400 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | +500 |
*Odds taken May 2, 2019
The Jags were victims of two things last year. Blake Bortles and a tough AFC South.
Their division was one of just two in the NFL to have multiple 10+ game winners, and the only one with three teams above .500.
Then there’s Bortles, whose scattered play forced Jalen Ramsey to eat his epic off-season rant. While it’s not fair to pile Leonard Fournette’s woes at Bortles’ feet, that certainly didn’t help matters either.
Nick Foles Solves Jags’ Issues Under Center
Nick Foles had the least drama-filled free agency ever. Everyone knew where he needed to go. The question was just how Jacksonville would figure it out.
They handed Foles a four-year, $88-million deal and the keys to the franchise.
If Nick Foles can lead the Jaguars offense to average 20 points a game they go at least 12-4
— On The Point (@pointerdave) April 26, 2019
The Jags also added Chris Conley to the receiver room, meaning Foles has Conley, Marquise Lee, DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook to work with.
That will help in a division where all four teams were 16th or better in pass defense according to Pro Football Focus.
Jaguars Solved Running Issues
At the Scouting Combine, Doug Marrone doubled-down on Leonard Fournette being all-in with the Jags.
Marrone reiterated this week what he said in January following a meeting with Fournette – that he believes Fournette is prepared to take a better approach moving forward.
That’s good news for Jacksonville, but so is a running back group that’s better prepared to survive an injury.
Jags RBs averaged 3.4 yards-per-carry last season. So the hope is that Benny Cunningham, Alfred Blue and rookie Ryquell Williams offer more injury protection.
NFL Draft Yields Positive Results
The Jaguars were sixth in pass rush productivity last year, so what did they do at the draft? Add to a strength, bringing in Josh Allen.
No Florida #Gators selected in the first round of the 2019 #NFLDraft. The last time that happened at UF was 2012.
Jawaan Taylor, expected to be a top-15 pick, falls to Day 2 over apparent concerns about his knee.
— OnlyGators.com ? Florida Gators news (@onlygators) April 26, 2019
Their second pick was a home run too, as Jawaan Taylor will help steady their offensive line.
Here’s what NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund thinks of the pick:
He (Taylor) kept defenders at least five feet from his quarterback on passing snaps at the second-highest rate among FBS tackles. On third down and more than six yards to go, he ranked first in this metric.
Nine linemen played 290+ snaps for Jacksonville in 2018, so better health and continuity will go a long way too.
Are Jaguars Worth an AFC South Bet?
Expect to see a bounce-back year for Jacksonville.
The defense was strengthened with a young, premier pass rusher, and that should get the buy-in back from Jalen Ramsey.
Good Q. On the low end I’d say 4, on the high end probably 10.
This is pure conjecture based on MM’s injuries and RT likely outplaying him in the passing game.
Full disclosure (as if it’s not already obvious): I am a Mariota doubter and have been for a while.
— Alex Daugherty (@AlexDaugherty1) May 1, 2019
They fixed a porous offensive line and solved their question at QB. Conversely, they face five teams (the Titans twice) who have significant question marks at quarterback. They open the year against Kansas City, who could be adjusting to life without Tyreek Hill.
The Colts and Texans are rightfully at the top of the odds, but Jags have rebuilt on the fly and will challenge for the crown.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
