Jaguars vs Patriots NFL Playoff Odds: Best Moneyline, ATS, Totals

And then there were two (in the AFC).

For the seventh consecutive season, the New England Patriots will play for a chance to go to the Super Bowl (Sunday, January 21, 3:05 PM ET, CBS), as they host the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars, who are back in the AFC title game for the first time since the 1999-2000 season and the third time since their inaugural 1995 campaign. It’s expected to be a great fall afternoon at Gillette Stadium, with temperatures around 48° F. at kickoff. Below, you will find complete wagering advice for the game, including where to find the best odds and how to bet the moneyline, the spread, and the game total.

Team Injury Reports

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Jaguars vs Patriots Team Stats

The Matchup

For all the unreal finishes, bizarro-world plays, and spectacular talent getting showcased this postseason, there remains one constant: the Patriots taking care of business.

Of course, in typical Patriots’ fashion, it’s not that they did it, it’s how they did it that makes them the ultimate chameleon of the NFL.

Dion Lewis was, by all accounts, the featured back for the Divisional Round against the Titans. And while he did deliver (24 touches for 141 yards from scrimmage), a couple of his teammates definitely added elements that the Titans weren’t prepared for.

Take James White, who battled an ankle injury at the end of the year and has been limited to just five catches and five carries since Dec. 3. Suddenly, White rose from the ashes to handle much of the goal-line work, scoring TDs on the ground and through the air against the Titans. Brandon Bolden, literally in cobwebs all season, also found the end zone.

And while Rob Gronkowski had a nice game, as expected (six catches for 81 yards and a score), he wasn’t unleashed into the all-world wrecking ball we have come to know throughout his career. Instead, it was Danny Amendola, who had 18 total catches since Week 12, coming through as Brady’s top target in the Divisional Playoffs, hauling in 11 balls for over 100 yards. He hadn’t been the leading receiver for the Patriots since Week 1.

Bill Belichick’s game-plan offers so many wrinkles, I’m half-convinced that Dwayne Allen is going to catch a couple of TD passes, and Bolden will be the featured back while Lewis plays exclusively out of the slot. Nothing should surprise us anymore.

Of course, it’s easy to mix and match pieces when you’ve got Tom Brady. The 40-year-old pivot is leaps and bounds the best quarterback left in the final four. His ability to make the right reads and drop the ball into his playmakers’ hands with precision would be any other QBs top asset. But Brady’s ability to step to the line and dissect what a defense is offering before snapping the ball, coupled with the aforementioned read-andatoss ability, make him almost unstoppable.

Fate put its own wrinkle into its plans for the Patriots, however. Yesterday came news of Brady injuring his throwing hand in a freak practice injury. There’s literally no chance he’s not going to play, but it does open the door for this Jaguars defense to make it interesting. [UPDATE: as of Friday morning, Rotoworld reports that Brady is practicing and that the injury should not impact his ability to throw.]

It’s safe to say “Sacksonville” has been downgraded from a potentially all-time great defense to one that’s merely very good. In two of their past three meaningful contests, they’ve been set on fire by Jimmy Garoppolo and Ben Roethlisberger.

But that doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of rising up to make big plays.

That front needs to feast on the Patriots’ offensive line and put pressure on Brady. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye are capable of pressing up to take away some of those short hot routes. Any hits on Brady early, and we could see just how bad his hand is hurting him.

It’s here where Gronkowski will probably make hay, as no one on the Jaguars will be able to cover him as he works the middle of the field.

It’s on the other side of the ball where things get super interesting.

Cue the broken record: Blake Bortles is again the key to Jacksonville’s success. The fourth-year QB is a chameleon in his own right: one week, he looks like he’s never thrown a football before. The next, he’s hitting crucial conversions with confidence and poise.

Of course, facing Belichick and the Patriots will be the ultimate test. It’s been said many times that Belichick defenses pride themselves on making the opponent “play left-handed.” They take away your bread and butter; they force you of out of your comfort zone; they put the onus to make plays on your weakest players.

In addition to focusing keenly on stopping Leonard Fournette, Belichick will likely use tight man-coverage on the outside. The Steelers played a lot of soft zone that Bortles was able to pick apart. His biggest weakness as a passer is stretching the field, so the Patriots will dare him to go over the top. The Jags will not only need Bortles to be on target when he does, they’ll also need Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, and Keelan Cole to win one-on-one battles.

Successful shots down the field start with keeping the QB upright, and Bortles left Pittsburgh with an immaculately clean jersey. Doing the same this week will be another big ask of the offensive line, going against an improved Patriots front seven that racked up eight sacks last week.

That front seven was equally good against the run. Tennessee did its best to get Derrick Henry into battering-ram mode, but the Patriots defense stuffed him. They could do the same here against Fournette, but there’s an underrated factor at play: Nathaniel Hackett. Flying under the radar all season, the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator has been making all the right moves these playoffs, and he should be able to get Fournette going, while positioning Bortles to succeed. Perhaps nothing showcased the craftiness of his playcalling more than this play-action pass to fullback Tommy Bohanon (Tommy Bohanon!) which put a fork in the Steelers.

If Hackett can match wits with Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, we could be in for a great one. And based on what we’ve seen already these playoffs, the table appears to be set for a spectacular feast.

Jaguars vs Patriots Betting Opportunities

BETTING THE MONEYLINE

BEST JAGUARS MONEYLINE: +325

BEST PATRIOTS MONEYLINE: -380

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: Patriots (-380)

If you believe in consistency, the process, and the team with the best player and coach, you have to take the Patriots. However, if you believe in wackiness, upsets and Blake Bortles, +325 is a tasty moneyline. You see where my allegiances lie.

BETTING AGAINST THE SPREAD

BEST JAGUARS SPREAD: +8 (-110)

BEST PATRIOTS SPREAD: -7.5 (-113)

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: Jaguars +8 (-110)

I can’t see the Jaguars winning, but I can see them being close throughout. The Patriots defense is still vulnerable; its vastly improved numbers of late are largely a result of a soft schedule. The Jaguars and (gulp) Bortles can exploit it. Maybe not for the win, but enough to put a collective hush over Gillette at least a few times on Sunday, and for you to win this bet.

BETTING THE GAME TOTAL

BEST OVER ODDS: 46 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 46.5 (-110)

EXPERT GAME TOTAL ADVICE: Over 46 (-110)

Brady is not going to be denied, and the one constant is his team’s ability to put up points. A minor thumb injury won’t change that. Plus Jacksonville will be able to find holes in this defense, and that will push the total over.