Josh Jacobs’ OROY Odds Fade After Missing Week 16; Does Kyler Murray Present Value?
- Sportsbooks list Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs as the -170 favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has closed to within +180 as the second betting choice
- Does Murray present a good value bet at this point?
Josh Jacobs ran to the head of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race in late October. He’s been the frontrunner ever since.
But has Kyler Murray played himself back into contention?
There’s an age-old theory that absence makes the heart grow fonder. That adage doesn’t apply in sports, though. On the playing field, gone is forgotten.
Jacobs has missed two of the last three games due to a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Murray has turned in successive strong performances. Last week, he led the Cardinals to an upset win over the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks.
Suddenly, the NFL OROY race is on again.
Sportsbooks rate Jacobs as the odds-on -170 chalk in the NFL OROY odds. Murray, however, is closing the gap. Following the win over the Seahawks, his line dropped from +475 to +180.
2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (Raiders) | -170 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | +180 |
| AJ Brown (Titans) | +700 |
| Terry McLaurin (Redskins) | +1200 |
| Miles Sanders (Eagles) | +1200 |
Odds taken on Dec. 26th
A week ago, Jacobs was given average odds of -700 to win the NFL OROY.
Jacobs Undergoes Surgery
Jacobs, who underwent surgery on Wednesday, isn’t certain to play Sunday in Oakland’s regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos. Amazingly, despite going 1-4 over the past five games, the 7-8 Raiders still remain in the AFC Wild Card hunt.
Josh Jacobs trails only Nick Chubb in overall grade among RBs this year!#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/qFGDZRqPdm
— PFF Las Vegas Raiders (@PFF_Raiders) December 18, 2019
Entering the final week of the season, Jacobs has gained 1,150 yards on the ground. That’s eighth in the NFL and leads all rookies.
Pro Football Focus grades out Jacobs as the NFL’s #2 RB this season at 87.8, behind only NFL rushing leader Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns (89.0).
Josh Jacobs from hospital bed. #Raiders pic.twitter.com/VtvvhaV1DK
— Raider Posts (@RaiderPosts) December 26, 2019
On his Instagram account, Jacobs posted a video of himself post-surgery. The video shows his lower leg bandaged up. That would seem to indicate that the surgery was not performed on his ailing shoulder.
Jacobs practiced with the Raiders on Tuesday.
Murray Heating Up
For the first two months of the NFL season, Murray was the favorite to win NFL OROY. Then he hit a rough patch.
Murray was sacked six times and turned in a passer rating of 56.4 in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The following week, he was picked off three time, sacked five times and showed a passer rating of 67.2 as the Cardinals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
#AzCardinals Kyler Murray leads rookies with 3,397 pass yards & ties for 2nd with 18 TD passes. Is 1 of 3 rookie QBs (Robert Griffin III & Cam Newton) with 3,000+ pass
yards & 500+ rush yards (544) since 1970.Both RG3/Newton won the OROY. pic.twitter.com/sGhMWxrwHM
— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) December 24, 2019
The last two weeks, though, Murray has been back in form. His numbers for the season are imposing. Murray has passed for 3,397 yards, and 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He rushed for 544 yards and another four TDs.
Murray is the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 500 yards in a season. The others – Cam Newton (2011) and Robert Griffin III (2012) – both were NFL OROY winners.
It’s a Close Call
Like fighters in a heavyweight bout, both Murray and Jacobs come into the final round battered and bruised.
#AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray’s MRI on his hamstring revealed nothing alarming, sources say. Just a regular, minor hamstring pull. It’ll be wait-and-see on his availability this week, with coach Kliff Kingsbury saying earlier if he’s healthy, he’ll go.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 23, 2019
Murray suffered a hamstring injury last week and is an uncertain starter for Arizona on Sunday against the Rams.
If Murray can’t go and Jacobs does, Jacobs wins. That’s especially true if he has a big game and Raiders somehow make the playoffs.
Josh Jacobs among 2019 Rookies:
1st in rushing yards per game (88.5 avg.)
1st in rushing yards (1,150)
1st in rushing TDs (7)
1st in rushing 1st downs (53)
1st in rushing yards after contact (2.83 avg.)
1st in rushing yards after contact (686)Just a reminder, #JacobsForOROY pic.twitter.com/McleEx9roz
— Raiders PR (@RAIDERS_PR) December 24, 2019
He’s delivering the goods in meaningful games but Murray is putting up numbers rarely equaled in NFL history.
This race is so close, whoever has the bigger Sunday is probably going to be the winner.
Pick: Kyler Murray (+180)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
