- The Week 4 SNF matchup features the Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets
- The Chiefs are massive 8.5-point road favorites
- Below, see the Chiefs vs Jets same-game parlay picks for tonight’s game
With Zach Wilson still running the Jets’ offense, the Week 4 Sunday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 1-0 away) and New York Jets (1-2, 1-1 home) has the feel of a mismatch. At least, that’s what oddsmakers are suggesting. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs come to MetLife Stadium as massive 8.5-point favorites and -405 on the moneyline in the Chiefs vs Jets odds.
One of the best ways to maintain interest in a blow out is with a same-game parlay. Below, find my favorite picks for this Week 4 Sunday Night Football.
Chiefs vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Picks
|Travis Kelce to score a TD||-145|
|Isiah Pacheco under 52.5 rushing yards||-110|
|Over 41.5 total points||-106|
|SAME-GAME PARLAY ODDS||+449|
This Chiefs vs Jets same-game parlay starts with Travis Kelce finding the end zone, continues with injury-hampered Isiah Pacheco staying under his rushing-yards total, and finishes with a bet on the total going over the extremely low number (for a KC game, that is) of 41.5.
The NFL public betting trends are heavily in favor of Kansas City: 76% of ATS handle and a staggering 96% of moneyline handle is on the Chiefs.
Chiefs vs Jets SGP Pick #1: Travis Kelce to Score a TD
NFL player props for Week 4 list Travis Kelce at -145 to get in the end zone. Kelce’s name has been all over the news thanks to his budding romance with Taylor Swift, but his TD price (-145) hasn’t been influenced. Kelce has scored one TD in each of his first two games this season and, going back to last year’s playoffs, has found the end zone in five straight (six total TDs).
Taylor Swift with a "LFG" after Travis Kelce scored a Touchdown
— BetUS Pro Football 🏈 (@BetUSProFB) September 24, 2023
The Chiefs’ Week 1 loss to Detroit showcased their limited depth at receiver. With Kadarius Toney battling a toe injury in the Chiefs vs Jets injury reports, Mahomes will be leaning on his top target, Kelce, as much as ever. In what’s shaping up to be a Kansas City rout, count on Mahomes making another concerted effort to get Kelce a score.
KC vs NYJ Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Isiah Pacheco Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco has been battling hamstring and abdomen issues over the past two weeks. He didn’t practice on Wednesday and, while he resumed his duties the rest of the week, is clearly less than 100%.
As the NFL playoff bracket currently stands, the Chiefs hold the number-three seed in the AFC and with none of their AFC West competition over .500, it looks as though they are going to cruise to an eighth straight division title. It’s likely that they will take control of Sunday’s game early, reducing the need to push any of their injured players, let alone one as important to their longterm goals as Pacheco.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick MacKinnon following Pacheco on the depth chart, KC has no shortage of bodies to lineup in Pacheco’s stead in the backfield. This is not a bet against Pacheco’s skills. It’s a wager on the Chiefs’ not overloading their laboring lead back when they don’t need to.
Chiefs vs Jets SGP Pick #3: Over 41.5
The final leg of this KC vs NYJ same-game parlay is over 41.5. This is the lowest total on a Chiefs game in over five years, and while the anemic Jets’ offense (20 points combined in the last two games) certainly motivates a lower-than-usual total for a KC game, the NYJ defense doesn’t really.
PFF grades the New York defense as sixth-best in the league, but DVOA tells a much different story: the Jets sit 17th in Defensive DVOA, and they are facing a Kansas City offense that found its stride in Week 3 during a 41-10 rout of the Bears.
Expect Kansas City’s offense to score early and often, setting up a pass-happy, game-extending approach from the Jets the rest of the way. Even with Wilson running the show, that script is likely to lead to an over with the total at such a low number.
All told, the three legs of this parlay amount to a +449 SGP.
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