Kyler Murray the Odds-On Favorite to be First Rookie QB to Throw a TD Pass
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: April 9, 2020 at 2:34 pm EDTPublished:
- You can wager on which NFL rookie QB will throw a touchdown pass first in 2019
- Barring injury, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins are the only rookies with a realistic path to a starting role
- What’s the best bet?
Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins combined to throw 92 touchdown passes in college last year, so it comes as no surprise that they have the shortest and second-shortest odds to be the first rookie QB to throw an NFL touchdown pass in 2019.
Which Rookie QB Will Throw a TD Pass First?
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | -250 |
| Dwayne Haskins | +100 |
| Daniel Jones | +250 |
| Drew Lock | +300 |
| Will Grier | +2000 |
| Ryan Finley | +2000 |
*Odds taken May 1, 2019
Murray is the only rookie quarterback currently locked into a starting role next season, while Haskins has the next best chance at earning a number one job.
While the Giants are planning to have Daniel Jones back up Eli Manning, the Redskins will give Dwayne Haskins the chance to compete for the starting job right away. “I think you have to give him an opportunity without a doubt,” said Washington HC Jay Gruden.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 26, 2019
The rest of the names on this board project as back-ups at best next season, with each having a bonafide number one ahead of them on the depth chart.
Murray is Poised for Major Success
Murray is coming off one of the best seasons ever by a college QB in 2018 and dwarfs the rest of the rookie class in terms of talent. He led all draftees in yards per attempt, yards per completion and big time throws, and is going to the perfect system to accentuate his skillset.
Kyler Murray's 8.4% big-time throw rate from a clean pocket was tops among the leading signal-callers in the draft pic.twitter.com/6hlWHq8vfk
— PFF (@PFF) May 1, 2019
He’ll be throwing the ball plenty in Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense, and the touchdowns are bound to pile up.
Right now he looks like the safest bet on the board, but that could change if Haskins is named the Redskins starter.
Haskins Has a Sneaky Edge
The Ohio State product won’t have to deal with stiff competition as Case Keenum is currently the only man standing in his way. Keenum had the league’s 28th highest passing grade last season, while Haskins completed 70% of his throws for 4,831 yards with the Buckeyes in 2018.
"The league done messed up."
Dwayne Haskins letting Washington Redskins fans know he's ready to get work 💪 pic.twitter.com/ym6tjIFBvr
— ESPN (@espn) April 26, 2019
He was 13-1 as a starter and Todd McShay called him the best pure passer in this year’s draft. A journeyman like Keenum should be no match for Haskins and the Redskins have a history of thrusting rookie quarterbacks into the spotlight.
We could get used to this #TouchdownTuesday
(via @OhioStateFB) pic.twitter.com/eRzmNRzExM
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) April 30, 2019
The main reason to bet on Haskins is because he should get the first crack. The Redskins play in the early window in Week 1, while the Cardinals suit up later in the afternoon. Assuming Haskins gets the start, he’ll draw a favorable matchup against the Eagles, and could win this prop before Murray ever gets a chance to step on the field.
Pick: Haskins (+100)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
