Lions vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Sunday

• The Detroit Lions visit the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 28
• The Lions, who have only lost two games this season by more than a touchdown, are 7.5-point road underdogs
• See a +359 Lions vs 49ers same-game parlay for today’s NFC title game

This afternoon at Levi’s Stadium, the Detroit Lions (14-5, 6-3 away, 13-6 ATS) have a chance to do something the franchise hasn’t done since 1957: win a road playoff game. Coincidentally, Detroit’s last road playoff win – nearly 70 years ago – came against the same San Francisco 49ers team the Lions will face in the 2024 NFC Championship Game.

Oddsmakers have established San Francisco (13-5, 6-3 home, 9-9 ATS) as a 7.5-point favorite in Sunday’s Lions vs 49ers odds, but today’s Detroit vs San Francisco same-game parlay is backing the Lions to keep it competitive and improve on their NFL-best 13-6 ATS record this season (including playoffs).

Lions vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay

Altogether, the three legs of today’s Lions vs 49ers SGP, which also includes Detroit QB Jared Goff having another big day under center, come out to a +359 price tag.

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After missing last week’s Bucs/Lions SGP by an agonizing six yards, I’m now +7.23 units on NFL same-game parlays for the season.

Lions vs 49ers SGP Pick #1: Detroit Lions +7.5

The first leg today is the Lions to keep the game within a touchdown. In the build-up to the NFC Championship, a lot has been made of Detroit’s sublime 13-6 ATS record (including playoffs). What underpins that gaudy ATS record is an elite offense (fifth in both DVOA and scoring) and a respectable defense (13th in DVOA) that excels at stopping the run.

It’s exactly that ability to stop the run that has me leaning so heavily towards Detroit to cover the spread. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has looked supremely average over the last month, which saw him fade from heavy favorite in the NFL MVP odds to a distant third (+2750 on average) behind both presumptive-winner Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott.

If Detroit’s front seven can take away chunk runs on first down, the pressure is going to be on Purdy, who only completed 59% of his passes against Green Bay last week (23-of-39 for 254 yards and one TD).

Brock Purdy with right elbow injury on sack. Likely UCL sprain. If pain controlled and doctor feels joint is stable return possible. pic.twitter.com/Jgwa8ynsys

— Mark Adickes (@MarkAdickes) January 29, 2023

Purdy was knocked out of last year’s NFC title game against Philadelphia on the play shown above after throwing just four passes, so this is also going to be novel territory for the second-year pro and former seventh-round pick.

Detroit vs San Francisco SGP Pick #2: Goff Over 274.5 Passing Yards

Jared Goff versus the San Francisco secondary is something of an unstoppable-force-meets-immovable-object paradigm. While that’s overselling both sides, there’s a hint of truth to it. Goff has been phenomenal of late, averaging 282 passing yards per game in the postseason with a 74.3 completion percentage, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Going back to the regular season, he’s gone over 274.5 yards in three straight games and reached at least 270 in five of his past six.

Didn't fully appreciate just how good of a throw this was from Jared Goff. Scheme is great, gets safety to bite up and leave MOF open, but Goff was great with eyes/anticipation. Replay angle shows how he held his eyes to right side right up until releasing throw. Excellent stuff pic.twitter.com/OLETSkd3ij

— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) January 22, 2024

As touched on in the Lions vs 49ers injury reports, Detroit is going to be without left guard Jonah Jackson, who’s a big part of their run-blocking schemes. At full strength, Detroit wants to employ a balanced run/pass attack. But that might not be in the cards today due to injuries. I expect some of the Detroit “run game” to wind up being screens Jahmyr Gibbs and quick-outs to their speedy receivers (which will all count as passing yards for Goff).

DET vs SF Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: McCaffrey Over 0.5 Touchdowns

The last leg of today’s Lions/49ers same-game parlay is San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey to score at least one touchdown. McCaffrey is coming off a two-touchdown game against the Green Bay Packers and tied with Miami’s Raheem Mostert for most touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season (21). The multi-TD game against the Packers continued a trend for McCaffrey of excelling in the playoffs.  In four previous playoff games, McCaffrey accounted for one touchdown each time out and averaged 104 yards from scrimmage.

The Detroit defense is not as generous as it was last season, especially against the run. They lowered their points allowed from 427 to 395 and were second in the NFL in rush yards allowed (88.8 YPG). But they still ranked in the bottom ten of the NFL in scoring defense and McCaffrey is as dangerous as a pass catchers as he is in the backfield.