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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Odds, Picks & Prediction for NFC Title Game

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Jan 28, 2024 · 1:46 PM PST

Detroit Lions' Craig Reynolds runs into the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown
Detroit Lions' Craig Reynolds runs into the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC divisional round playoff game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024. Right tackle Penei Sewell (58) celebrates.
  • The NFC title will be decided when the 49ers host the Lions at 6:30 pm EST Sunday night
  • Can Lions’ QB Jared Goff make it to the Super Bowl with his second team?
  • Get the Lions vs 49ers odds, picks and predictions for the Conference Championship here

It’s the fourth time in five years that the San Francisco 49ers have reached the NFC Championship Game, though they’ve only advanced to the big game in one of those three previous attempts. Meanwhile, the Lions are in the Conference Finals for the first time since 1992. Oddsmakers have installed San Fran as 7-point favorites in the Lions vs 49ers odds.

Read on for the full Detroit vs San Francisco odds and our top Lions vs 49ers prediction here.

Lions vs 49ers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Detroit +7 (+100) +275 Over 52.5 (-110)
San Francisco -7 (-120) -358 Under 52.5 (-110)

Editor’s note: as of 4:45 pm ET, the Lions vs 49ers  game total has increased a full point to 52.5 (-110 both ways). The spread and total remain the same. 

As a touchdown favorite and -358 on the moneyline, San Francisco are heavy favorites in the Lions vs 49ers odds and have an implied probability of 78.17. Oddsmakers are expecting points to be scored with a total set at 51.5 points in the Over/Under.

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How to Watch Detroit vs San Francisco

Viewers in the United States can watch this Detroit vs San Francisco game on Sunday on FOX, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.

Lions vs 49ers Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between these teams may see San Fran leading by by just a 39-28-1 record, but it’s been all one-way traffic in recent times.

The last game played was in 2021 with San Fran winning 41-33 in Detroit. The 49ers have won 11/12 and 16/18 of the most recent games between these teams. The two Lions’ wins in that time have also both come in Detroit. The Lions have not gone to California and left with a win over the 49ers since way back in 1975.

Lions vs 49ers Public Betting Trends

In the Lions vs 49ers public betting splits, the Lions are taking a huge proportion of the public bets on the spread. Detroit is receiving 66% of ATS handle and 69% of bets as of Sunday afternoon.

Detroit is also getting 63% of the money bet on the moneyline but on a miniscule 24% of the tickets, indicating much larger wagers are on the Lions to win straight-up compared to the moneyline bets on the Niners.

The public had been hammering over 51.5 early in the week, but with the total now at 52.5, the public is siding with the under: two hours from kickoff, 72% of game-total handle is on the under.

Lions vs 49ers Weather Report

The weather should be perfect for football in Santa, Clara, California Sunday. Temperatures could reach 74 degrees, with sun, few clouds and winds no more than 5 mph.

Lions Betting Preview

After winning their division for the first-time since 1993, the Lions entered the Wild Card Playoffs looking for another first in some time, that being winning a playoff game. They accomplished that feat as well taking down the Rams 24-23 at home in the Wild Card Playoffs.

Next up Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round. And while the Bucs kept it close, tied 10-10 at halftime 17-17 entering the fourth quarter, it was Detroit coming out on top again, 31-23. Jared Goff threw for 287 yards and 2 TDs to Amon-Ra St Brown and Josh Reynolds, while both Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds each rushed in one score on the ground.

The Lions are 3-0 and 5-1 SU in recent games and 5-1 ATS in that stretch of six games as well. They now own the best overall ATS record at 13-6 counting playoffs, covering as 6-6.5 point favorites last week.

A concerning trend though is certainly their defense, especially the pass defense that ranked 29th after the regular season. Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards and 3 TDs in the loss and the week prior Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards and two scores.

In fact, despite the stellar W/L and ATS record of late, look back at their past five games and they’ve given up passing yardage totals of 349, 367, 396, 345 and 411. In each of those games the opposing QB has thrown for multiple touchdown passes. Stats to consider if betting Brock Purdy in the Lions vs 49ers props.

49ers Betting Preview

The 49ers were the conference’s top seed, but some cracks have started to show in recent weeks as well. Coming out of their bye, San Fran rolled to six-straight double-digit wins, something they accomplished in 11/12 regular season wins. But a one-sided 33-19 loss to Baltimore on Christmas Day at home was a setback.

They were back in-form routing the Commanders 27-10 in Week 17 and, but then lost 21-20 at home to the Rams in Week 18, albeit with bost teams resting starters.

Last week in the Divisional Round, the 49ers found themselves behind and playing catch-up for much of the game versus the Packers. In fact, despite eventually prevailing with a late Christian McCaffrey touchdown, his second of the game, San Fran had to do something they had yet to do all season. That being to overcome a second half deficit to get a win.

Brock Purdy only threw for 1 TD, but did orchestrate the game-winning 69-yard drive starting from the 49ers’ 31-yard line. He also avoided throwing an interception. Meanwhile, San Fran picked off Jordan Love twice, including on the final play of the game to secure the win. McCaffrey is now the third favorite in the Super Bowl MVP odds.

Lions vs 49ers Head-to-Head Stats

Lions
VS
49ers
12-5 / 12-5 Record / ATS 12-5 / 9-8
5th (27.1) PPG Scored 3rd (28.9)
3rd YPG Offense 2nd
2nd Passing YPG 4th
5th Rushing YPG 3rd
23rd (23.2) PPG Allowed 3rd (17.5)
19th YPG Allowed 8th
27th Passing YPG Allowed 14th
2nd Rushing YPG Allowed 3rd

*Regular season stats

Lions vs 49ers Prediction

One of the biggest factors to consider when making your Lions vs 49ers picks is the status of San Fran WR Deebo Samuel. Samuel left last week’s game with a shoulder injury and is questionable on the Lions vs 49ers injury reports. The stats and NFL team trends vary greatly with and without Deebo for San Fran. With him in the lineup, the 49ers average 7.1 yards per play and are 12-1 SU. Without him or in games where he hasn’t finished, their yards per play drops to 5.7 and they are 1-4 SU. However, it’s important to consider that LT Trent Williams also missed time during some of those games where Deebo was out.

Detroit is 4-2 to the Over in their past six, and 12-7 to the Over this season overall. Away from home, the Lions have gone 7-2 ATS, as an underdog they’re 2-1 and as an away underdog they’re 2-1 ATS as well.

San Fran is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in their past four. The Under is 2-1 in their past three, but the Over is 3-2 in their past five. Season-long, they’re 10-8 to the Over. When playing ar home at Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers have been a poor ATS bet at just 3-6 ATS (and 3-6 as a home favorite), failing to cover in any of their past six games. They’re an equal 9-9 ATS overall this season in any situation.

The 49ers have scored 20 or more points in 10 of their past 11 games, falling just short once, losing 33-19 to the Ravens. As good as their defense has been, they have also given up 21 or more points in four of their past five games.

A similar thing can be said of the Lions who have scored over 20 points in five of their past six games, while giving up 20 or more points in five straight games and also in 10 of their past 11. So a case can certainly be made for the Over.

But I’ll side with the more complete team here in the 49ers playing at home to win and cover.

Lions vs 49ers Picks: 49ers -7 (-120)

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