NFL Player Props for Conference Championships – Best Props to Bet for NFL Playoffs
- Online sportsbooks have released player props for this weekend’s Conference Championships
- Our player props for the NFL Playoffs on Sunday will include several plays on Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson
- See all of this week’s top passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown props to target for the AFC and NFC title games
While this weekend’s NFL action will decide who plays in the Super Bowl, there’s also another matter of which players will have the biggest impact on their teams to get them there. And that’s where we come in as we make our best NFL player props to bet for the Conference Championships here.
Conference Championship Player Props
| Prop | Odds | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson under 210.5 passing yards | -130 | 1 unit |
| Brock Purdy over 20.5 pass completions | -118 | 1 unit |
| Lamar Jackson over 65.5 rushing yards | -125 | 1 unit |
| David Montgomery over 42.5 rushing yards | -115 | 1 unit |
| George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards | -115 | 1 unit |
| Amon-Ra St Brown over 84.5 receiving yards | -125 | 1 unit |
| Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown | +130 | 1 unit |
| Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown | +105 | 1 unit |
This weekend’s NFL player props include a mix of picks from both games while also being Lamar Jackson heavy in passing, rushing and touchdown props. We’ve also included plays on Brock Purdy, David Montgomery, George Kittle, Amon-Ra St Brown and Isiah Pacheco.
When it comes to how to bet on NFL player props, there are endless options and you can bet on almost any position group of players. Read on for our top NFL player props for the NFL Playoffs here.
Conference Championship Playoff Passing Props – Lamar Jackson Passing Yards
Opposing quarterbacks versus the Chiefs have fallen under 210.5 passing yards in five of their past six games. In the one game where a quarterback went over, it was Easton Stick of the Chargers when the Chiefs rested starters.
Overall this season, KC’s 4th-ranked passing defense held opposing QBs under this number in ten games.
It’s also a number Jackson has fallen under in five of his past ten games, including last week where he passed for just 152 yards.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Lamar Jackson under 210.5 passing yards (-130); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Conference Championship Playoff Passing Props – Brock Purdy Pass Completions
There’s conflicting stats to consider when looking to bet on the passing props for Brock Purdy.
On one hand, at a total yards prop of 279.5 at DraftKings, that’s a number Purdy has failed to exceed in any of his last four games. He has done so in seven games this season but only twice in his past seven games.
But when you look at the Lions, anyone and everyone has been carving up their 29th-ranked pass defense. Last week Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards. The week prior Matthew Stafford had 367. Before that it was Nick Mullens with 396, Dak Prescott with 345 and then Mullens again with 411.
We can also look at Purdy’s completions prop though. DraftKings lines him at 21.5, but you can find 20.5 at FanDuel. Purdy has completed 23 and 22 passes in his last two games but failed to finished with 20+ in his four games prior. He also failed to go over 21.5 in seven of his past nine games.
But flip back over to the Lions, and in the past five games, along the way to the previously mentioned quarterbacks having big yardage games, they also completed 26, 25, 30, 26 and 22 passes. Kyle Shanahan would be wise to take a similar approach this week, and if he does, we see Purdy at least going over the 20.5 total at FanDuel.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Brock Purdy over 20.5 pass completions (-118); risk 1 unit at FanDuel
Conference Championship Playoff Rushing Props – Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Lamar is coming off of a 100-yard day on the ground last week, and while he rushed for just 35 and 45 yards in his two games prior, he had games of 97 and 70 yards before that. So he would’ve exceeded a rushing prop of 65.5 in three of his past five games.
Plus the Chiefs allowed 72 yards rushing to Josh Allen last week and also 77 yards to Easton Stick in Week 18.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Lamar Jackson over 65.5 rushing yards (-125); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Conference Championship Playoff Rushing Props – David Montgomery Rushing Yards
Lions’ RB David Montgomery fell shy of a rushing prop of 42.5 yards last week finishing with 33 yards, but even with a timeshare alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery typically gets up and over this number.
He did so in the Wild Card Round with 57 yards, in nine of the past 11 games and in 13/16 total combined games this season.
Green Bay’s Aaron Jones rushed for 108 yards versus the 49ers last week and ten times this season an opposing team’s top rusher went over 42.5 yards. Twice, an opposing team had two players top that number in the same game.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: David Montgomery over 42.5 rushing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
George Kittle gets the 49ers on the board! #FTTB
Via NFL, FOX pic.twitter.com/KM1tBmlDGQ
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 21, 2024
Conference Championship Playoff Receiving Props – George Kittle Receiving Yards
One of my favorite things to do for prop betting is to look at how teams matchup against specific position groups. And of the four remaining teams, the Lions easily rank as the worst defending the pass and specifically the worst against tight ends.
They’ve given up 83 catches and 940 yards to the position in the regular season. That averaged out to 4.88 catches and 55.29 yards per game. Last week Bucs’ TE Cade Otton had 5 catches for 65 yards and 1 TD
Those averages fall right about in line for the receiving props for George Kittle this week. His receptions prop is set at 4.5 and yardage prop at 61.5. Versus the Packers, Kittle had four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. In eight of his past 11 games, Kittle has also finished over 60 yards receiving.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Conference Championship Playoff Receiving Props – Amon-Ra St Brown Receiving Yards
Last week Green Bay’a top receiver Romeo Doubs finished right near this prop number of 84.5 that Amon-Ra St Brown is lined at this week when he had 83 yards receiving.
Meanwhile, St Brown fell short of this total against the Bucs with just 77 yards on 8-14 catches/targets. He also added a TD, giving him touchdown scores in 5/6 and 8/11 recent games. So you could certainly consider him to find the endzone at +125 odds as well.
But let’s target his receiving yards considering prior to last week, St Brown had yardage totals of 110, 144, 90, 106 and 112. and season-ling he’s gone over a total of 84.5 in 12/18 games.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Amon-Ra St Brown over 84.5 receiving yards (-125); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Conference Championship Playoff Touchdown Props – Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown
There’s really only three players that Patrick Mahomes looks to in the Chiefs’ offense right now; Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco has averaged 84.5 yards rushing alone in his past six games, not counting receiving yards, and in those six games he’s found the endzone in each one for a total of seven scores. Let’s bet on that continuing in our Conference Championship prop bets.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Isiah Pacheco anytme touchdown (+130); risk 1 unit at FanDuel
MAKE IT TWO RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS TONIGHT FOR LAMAR JACKSON!pic.twitter.com/b3u2yFX5mu
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) January 21, 2024
Conference Championship Playoff Touchdown Props – Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown
This bet will require Jackson to rush in a score, not pass for a touchdown, but I’m good with that. Lamar had two rushing touchdowns last week versus the Texans. However, those were the first rushing touchdowns for Jackson in his last nine games.
But then the Chiefs just saw Josh Allen run all over them for 72 yards and two touchdowns last week. Lamar can do similar and get at least one TD.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown (+105); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Before you make your NFL Playoffs player props for the Conference Championships, be sure to head on over to one of the top NFL betting apps this weekend to grab an exciting sportsbook bonus for your NFL prop bets.
Season NFL Props Record: 70-67, -7.76 units
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
