Top MLB Home Run Picks and Odds for Today’s Slate

Published: July 20, 2026 at 9:23 am EDT

Ben Rice smacks a home run against the Tigers. — Jun 30, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Ben Rice (22) hits a solo home run against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Explore today’s top home run targets across a massive 15-game MLB schedule.
Discover how hitter-friendly environments like Coors Field and Wrigley Field influence today’s best bets.
Review actionable analysis and the best available MLB home run props to build a winning bet slip.

Welcome to today’s massive 15-game MLB slate, with no shortage of power bats and betting angles on the home run props board. Marquee spots like Dodgers-Phillies, plus hitter-friendly settings at Daikin Park, Wrigley Field, Yankee Stadium, and Coors Field, create plenty of long-ball potential.

This guide breaks down the best available MLB home run odds and the matchup factors behind each pick, from elite sluggers in premium parks to high-upside longshots worth considering.

Best Home Run Picks & Odds Today

Matchup	Pick	Best Odds
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies	James Wood	+238
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins	Yordan Alvarez	+240
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs	Riley Greene	+217
New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Ben Rice	+270
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Shohei Ohtani	+430
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners	Tyler Stephenson	+710

James Wood (+238) — Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies

The environment at Coors Field speaks for itself. The famously altitude-aided venue ranks fifth in the league for runs per game (11.28) and boasts a massive 2.70 home runs per game average. This creates a phenomenal baseline for power hitting. Young standouts like Wood are always eager to prove their mettle in these high-leverage scoring environments.

Wood steps into the box against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, a pitcher highly susceptible to the long ball. Freeland carries a 1.84 HR/9 rate this season, surrendering 18 home runs across 88.0 innings of work. Targeting a highly touted prospect against a vulnerable veteran is a classic recipe for success.

Yordan Alvarez (+240) — Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins

Alvarez remains the top home run candidate for the Astros tonight. The pitching matchup provides excellent conditions to back the formidable Houston slugger. He faces Miami starter Janson Junk, who owns a 1.25 HR/9 rate after allowing nine homers through 65.0 innings. Junk’s pitch-to-contact style often falters against elite power hitters.

Daikin Park also offers a solid baseline for power production. The stadium ranks 12th in the majors with 9.22 runs per game, seeing 2.82 home runs leave the yard on average. Even without deep MLB batter vs pitcher stats for this matchup, Junk’s vulnerability to volume hitters makes Alvarez an incredible value.

Riley Greene (+217) — Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs

Greene gets the most favorable pitching matchup on the entire slate. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has the highest HR/9 rate among all starting pitchers taking the mound today. Taillon sits at an inflated 2.66 HR/9, having coughed up 20 home runs in just 67.7 innings of work.

Taillon’s extreme susceptibility to the long ball makes Greene a premier pick. Checking the MLB weather report is key, as the afternoon wind at Wrigley Field can be a wildcard. However, the venue remains solid for scoring, ranking eighth overall with 2.76 home runs and 9.61 runs per game. Start betting at Caesars now to back the gritty Detroit outfielder.

Ben Rice (+270) — New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Rice steps to the plate at Yankee Stadium, a venue perfectly suited for a left-handed hitter with an underdog mentality. The stadium ranks 14th in scoring with 9.15 runs per game but sees an impressive 2.74 home runs per contest. Targeting the short porch in right field is a historically profitable strategy here.

The Yankees face Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft today. Ashcraft enters the contest with a 1.11 HR/9 rate, having allowed 14 home runs over 113.3 innings. Backing a ballyhooed rookie against a starter who yields more than a home run per nine innings is mathematically sound.

Shohei Ohtani (+430) — Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ohtani faces a slightly tougher pitching test tonight, but the ballpark conditions keep him firmly in play. He will match up against Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez, who has posted a stingy 0.85 HR/9 rate. Sánchez has allowed just 12 homers across 127.3 innings of diligent work on the mound.

Despite the tough pitcher, Citizens Bank Park provides a notably friendly power environment. The stadium ranks ninth in scoring and averages 2.65 home runs per game. Ohtani’s relentless work ethic and elite upside in a hitter-friendly venue make this a highly valuable spot on the board.

Tyler Stephenson (+710) — Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners

For those seeking a high-upside longshot, Stephenson offers an intriguing price. He faces significant hurdles, as T-Mobile Park is statistically the most difficult run-scoring environment in baseball this season. It ranks dead last with just 7.38 runs and 2.22 home runs per game.

Seattle starter George Kirby owns a strong 0.90 HR/9 rate, allowing just 11 home runs in 110.0 innings. However, Stephenson’s gritty mentality makes him an intriguing flyer at these inflated odds.

Daniel Destler

Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.