- After getting back to the fundamentals in Week 5, Nick Mangold broke out of his ATS slump and has moved on to totals betting in Week 6
- Mangold is 2-3 with his weekly picks (-1.8 units) and 6-4 on his MNF props (+1.88 units); he’s 8-7 overall (+0.08 units)
- See which game he is targeting for his Week 6 over/under bet
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you break out of a slump.
Riding a three-week losing streak, I told you I was going to get back to the fundamentals and dive deep into the great sports betting tools available at SBD for Week 5. Citing SportsBettingDime’s score predictor, which had the Patriots beating the Redskins by 36, I covered the 15 points I was laying with New England.
The win, paired with another 1-1 result in my Monday Night Football props, saw me get back in the plus for the season – the first time since Week 3. Now 15 bets deep in my sports betting journey with a bankroll (a little) bigger than what I started with, the fine folk at SBD thought I earned an upgrade in my status.
They’re now calling me a junior sports bettor, no longer a rookie! (Wait, is that even better?!)
My first wager as a junior sports bettor will be a totals bet, or an over/under bet, if you prefer.
This type of bet does not actually involve you picking one team or the other. A totals bet involves the sportsbooks setting a line on the total number of points that will be scored in the game. You just bet whether the actual combined points will be over or under their projected total.
If you want a little more info on this type of bet, see SBD’s guide on totals betting.
Mangold’s Week 6 Pick
It would be foolish of me to go away from SBD’s tools in Week 6. But I’m thrilled to see their score predictor agrees with the one totals bet that stood out to me.
I see the Titans vs Broncos total of 40.5 being too high. The line opened at 40.5 at Bovada, but dipped as low as 39 during the week, before returning back to where it opened.
Titans vs Broncos Odds
|Team||Spread||Moneyline||Total at Bovada|
|Tennessee Titans||+1.5 (-110)||+105||O 40.5 (-110)|
|Denver Broncos||-1.5 (-110)||-125||U 40.5 (-110)|
*Odds taken from Bovada on October 12
Don’t be confused by the way sportsbooks present total bets. The over has no association with the Titans, just as the under has no tie to the Broncos. This is just the standard way they show it.
Denver’s offense has scored the seventh-fewest points in the league (18 per game), while their defense has allowed the tenth-fewest (21.2 per game). Tennessee’s offense ranks 23rd in points (19.6 per game), while their defense has allowed the sixth-fewest (15.2 per game).
The Titans head to Denver where the temperature has dropped 63 DEGREES in the last day.
— Allan Bell (@AllanBell247) October 10, 2019
SBD’s score predictor is calling for just 29.9 total points in this game, and I’m thinking the exact same thing. The total has gone under in four of Tennessee’s five games this season, and in three of Denver’s five.
The Broncos’ run defense showed up last week, and they’ll need to again in Week 6 to prevent Derrick Henry from breaking loose for too many big runs. After dropping their first two games at home this season, both in heartbreak fashion, I foresee Denver’s defense showing up in front of their home crowd.
Mark me down for the under here.
If you want to do some of your own research on the two teams before betting it, check out our Titans vs Broncos odds & stats.
This article may contain links to external sports betting services. SBD may receive advertising revenue from these links, however editorial has hand-picked each individual link based on relevance to the article, without influence on the coverage.
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