- Two teams fighting to stay in their respective playoff races meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 11
- New Vikings QB Josh Dobbs has found instant chemistry with tight end TJ Hockenson
- See Sascha Paruk’s two-leg, +253 Vikings vs Broncos same-game parlay
Despite losing starting QB Kirk Cousins in Week 8, the Minnesota Vikings (6-4, 4-1 away, 6-3-1 ATS) have stayed scorching hot with newcomer Josh Dobbs under center. The former Arizona Cardinal has won his first two starts with his new team, running the Vikings’ win streak to five and propelling Minnesota into an NFC playoff spot for the time being.
Tonight, Dobbs and the Vikings face another team that’s battling back from an awful start. Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos (4-5, 2-3 home, 3-5-1 ATS) started the year 1-5 but are now just a game under .500 thanks to a three-game win streak, which included upsets over Kansas City and Buffalo. Both sidelines will feel tonight’s Sunday Night Football game at Mile High Stadium (8:20 pm ET) is a must-win for their playoff chances. My Minnesota/Denver same-game parlay focuses on just two player props that stand out.
Vikings vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay Picks
|TJ Hockenson over 60.5 receiving yards||+110|
|Javonte Williams under 66.5 rushing yards||-114|
|Same-Game Parlay Odds||+253|
The first leg of today’s Vikings vs Broncos same-game parlay is on Minnesota tight end TJ Hockenson to keep up the chemistry he’s found with Dobbs, while the second banks on the Minnesota defense staying strong against the run.
Week 10 was a swing-and-miss for my Jets vs Raiders SGP, which drops me to +2.73 units on NFL same-game parlays this year.
The NFL public betting splits for Vikings/Broncos currently show the Vikings getting 90% of ATS handle as three-point road underdogs, along with 72% of moneyline handle as +125 underdogs.
Vikings vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: TJ Hockenson Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Minnesota tight end TJ Hockenson, a former eighth-overall pick by the Detroit Lions (2019), has found an instant groove with Dobbs. Not that Hockenson was laboring with Cousins under center – he had 478 yards in the first eight games of the season (59.8 YPG) – but he’s racked up 203 in two games with Dobbs, including 134 last time out in a 27-19 win over New Orleans. He is currently listed at +110 to go over 60.5 yards in the Week 11 NFL player props.
The Bronco defense is giving up 68.89 yards to tight ends this year, which is literally dead-last among all NFL defenses. Only the Chargers (68.33 yards) are particularly close.
TJ Hockenson has been on another level so far this year:
⭐ 71 receptions
⭐ 681 receiving yards
⭐ 4 touchdowns pic.twitter.com/AxNDlwYqqe
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2023
The main reason I have pause here is that the Denver defense is also dead-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (158.3). But the Minnesota depth chart is paper-thing at running back. Alexander Mattison is now at the top of the list, and even he’s questionable with a concussion. The Vikings pretty much have to put the ball in Dobbs’ hands, and that’s going to mean a boat-load more targets for Hockenson, who’s had a staggering 27 in Dobbs’ first two games with Minnesota.
Minnesota vs Denver SGP Pick #2: Javonte Williams Under 66.5 Rushing Yards
Third-year pro Javonte Williams has been a huge part of Denver’s turnaround, rushing for at least 79 yards in all three wins and averaging 82.0 YPG in that span. But his rushing total tonight of 66.5 yards is recency bias. The UNC product has only gone over 66.5 yards eight times in his career (29 games played). Tonight, he faces a Minnesota defense that allows just 98.8 rushing yards per game, 10th-best in the NFL.
Minnesota’s defense is also eighth in overall DVOA while the Denver offense is a middling 17th. The Viking pass defense has been a little more susceptible, allowing 224.4 yards per game, just 17th in the league. With Russell Wilson coming off one of his best games as a Bronco (24-of-29 for 193 yards, two TDs, no INTs) against a tough Buffalo defense, don’t be surprised if Denver OC Joe Lombardi leans more heavily on Wilson’s arm tonight than he did in the first half of the season.