2023 NFL Mock Draft Based Entirely on NFL Draft Odds & Props

• Matt McEwan has pieced together his 2023 first-round mock draft using NFL Draft odds and props
• The 2023 NFL Draft takes place Thursday, April 27
• See where CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Carter, among others end up in the mock draft

I am back again with the first edition of my 2023 NFL mock draft. I have taken on this insane puzzle, using the NFL Draft odds and props to fill out a first-round NFL mock draft, each of the last five years and finally got enough information to piece it together for 2023.

Before you call me an idiot for who I have your team selecting in the first round, please remember this is not who I think they will take. This mock draft is not based on my opinion. It is based off the sportsbooks’ NFL Draft odds. So, go call DraftKings and FanDuel an idiot when you don’t like what you see here. (Or better yet, go bet some of their props that you think are wrong.)

Below my first-round NFL mock draft, I’ll explain the process a little more and point out the major issues I had in putting this puzzle together – also read as betting opportunities.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

All of the asterisks above denote trades that I have facilitated to make things fit. If you’re wondering why there are only 31 picks in this first-round mock, remember the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick due to policy violations around the integrity of the game.

To the surprise of few, at least not those who are familiar with the NFL Draft odds, sportsbooks have the Carolina Panthers taking QB Bryce Young with the first-overall pick. The Texans had been favored to take a QB with the second-overall pick up until a week ago (or so) when Will Anderson became the favorite. So, my mock draft has Houston taking edge-rusher Will Anderson. Things get really tricky with that third pick, as CJ Stroud is still favored to go third-overall in the NFL Draft odds. But there’s no way Arizona takes a quarterback. So, I had to make a trade and have the Raiders coming up to get their franchise QB.

I won’t spell out any more of the mock draft above. Instead, let me get into the process really quickly.

In putting this mock together, not all NFL Draft props are equal. I prioritized props where the sportsbook is offering a wager on each side. For example, draft position props allow you to bet the over or under on when a player will be taken. On the other hand, odds to be a top five/ten pick do not allow you to bet “no”. The NFL Draft props on what the position of each team’s first-round pick will be, as well as which team will draft a specific player, are very juiced.

I did, however, consider every NFL Draft prop that is available, including but not limited to: draft position over/unders, odds for each of the top ten picks, odds to be a top 5/10/31 pick, props around how many players from specific college conferences will be taken, odds on the first player taken at each position group, odds on the position of the player each team takes with their first pick, and odds on which team will draft specific players.

In piecing this together, I had to really jam a few pieces in. The puzzle doesn’t fit perfectly. Here were some of the bigger issues I encountered with the sportsbooks’ odds:

1. CJ Stroud is favored to be selected third-overall still but sportsbooks have not released an over/under for him. Stroud is also still slightly favored to be the second QB taken at -110 odds. With Will Levis basically locked in at #4 to the Colts through a few different props, I had to have Stroud go #3. I’ll be keeping my eyes open for Stroud’s over/under to open.
2. Paris Johnson Jr is favored to be the first offensive linemen taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson and Peter Skoronski are both heavily favored to be top ten picks at -400 and -250, respectively. However, Johnson’s over/under leans strongly over 9.5 while Skoronski’s over/under favors him to go under 10.5. I had to break one of these pieces in my mock. I went with Skoronski going outside of the top ten, which would mean the over (+104 at FanDuel) on his draft position.
3. Jalen Carter, whose draft stock is quite uncertain after some off-field trouble earlier this year, has an over/under of 6.5 with the over favored at -135. Carter does not have any odds to be a top ten pick, however. As a result, I had to slide him down the board to 11 to accommodate others not having their props broken. If you do like the under on Carter’s draft position, you might want to have a look at him being the fifth or sixth-overall pick. You can get +800 on him being taken by the Seahawks at #5 and +420 on the Lions taking him at #6. I’d lean Seattle after Detroit just saw some of their players suspended. They might be a little gun shy on pulling the trigger on Carter after that. Personally, I think the over on Carter’s draft position at -135 odds looks like a good bet with Tyree Wilson and Devon Witherspoon being pretty favored picks in those two spots.
4. Bijan Robinson’s over/under is set at 12.5 with the over favored at -128 odds. However, Robinson is given the best odds to be the eighth-overall pick at DraftKings, which is currently held by the Falcons, with +200 odds. (FanDuel has Nolan Smith favored.) Both sportsbooks list Atlanta as the favorites to be the team to draft Robinson as well. As I said, though, not all props are equal and I stuck to his over/under when mocking him. I did have the Falcons come back into the first to take him, but that was just to satisfy those other props. There are too many other players heavily favored to go in the top ten, who play positions the league values more, to see a running back taken eighth.
5. If the odds are correct and the Texans take Will Anderson with the second-overall pick, I still can’t see a way they leave the first round without a new QB. If Stroud goes third, and Levis goes fourth, as the odds suggest, that just leaves Anthony Richardson from the group of perceived top quarterbacks. Richardson is given -800 odds to be a top ten pick and his over/under is set at 4.5, although the over is heavily favored. The Titans are given the best odds to be the team to draft Richardson and they very well may try to make the move up the board for him. I like the Texans to be more aggressive if they pass on a QB at #2, though. You can find Houston at +2000 to draft Richardson.
6. There is a lack of over/unders for edge players. Of the five who are given favorable odds to be a first-round pick, only Will Anderson, Nolan Smith, and Myles Murphy are given draft position props. This leaves Lukas Van Ness and Will McDonald IV without over/unders. Smith’s over/under, which favors over 10.5 at DraftKings but under 13.5 at FanDuel, made him easy to place. Due to team needs (odds on the player’s position each team will take with their first pick) favoring other positions in the middle of the first round, Van Ness didn’t come off until 18 with Murphy nearing the end of the first round. The over (-130) on Murphy’s draft position feels like a good bet. I will also be watching closely for Van Ness’ draft position to open.
7. Two other props I went against, but wouldn’t bet on, are one too many SEC player being taken (odds heavily favor under 11.5) and not enough Big Ten players being taken (odds favor over 8.5). The bottom of the board can get pretty crazy and these are easy to fulfill with just one misstep by the books.

I could go on for at least another 1,000 words explaining the other issues I encountered in putting together this mock. But I’ll stop here and see if that helps ease my mind of this puzzle. If you do see something you don’t like or other places where the odds don’t work / betting opportunities, let me know on Twitter @SBD_Matt.