Upcoming Match-ups

Nearly 33% of Money Bet on 2019 NFL OROY is on Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray at Cardinals camp
Kyler Murray is the heavy favorite to win the 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Photo from @ezmoneyfantasy (Twitter).
  • Kyler Murray has been the favorite to win 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year since odds opened
  • With Brett Hundley and Chad Kanoff as his competition, Murray projects to start Week 1 for the Cardinals
  • Murray’s OROY odds continue to shorten as plenty of money continues pouring in on him to win

When the Arizona Cardinals hired Kliff Kingsbury, formerly the head coach of Texas Tech, to replace Steve Wilks as their head coach on January 8, the team was taking a big swing at improving their league-worst offense from 2018.

When the Cardinals used the first-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft on Kyler Murray, the Heisman-winning quarterback from Oklahoma, opting to ship Josh Rosen to Miami for a couple of picks, the team pushed their chips all-in on Kingsbury’s up-tempo, explosive offense.

Now, sports bettors at one prominent online betting site (herein, “Sportsbook 1”) are also pushing their chips all-in on Murray and Kingsbury in their first seasons in Arizona – at least all-in on their offense, anyways.

Top Money Percentages for Offensive Rookie of the Year

Player Opening Odds Current Odds Money% at Sportsbook 1
Kyler Murray +210 +150 32.3%
Josh Jacobs +850 +838 10.33%
Dwayne Haskins +800 +786 10.28%
David Montgomery +2000 +1641 9.6%
Andy Isabella +4000 +2500 8.82%

Odds taken July 18.

Expectations in the new-look Arizona offense are high enough that the team’s second-round pick Andy Isabella is even taking the fifth-most money to be honored as OROY in 2019.

Based on all the money that has come in on Murray, though, it’s easy to see why his 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds continue to shorten from the already-short +210 price he opened at.

Murray will be looking to become just the second quarterback to win the award since we had three straight QBs honored from 2010-2012 – Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and then Robert Griffin III.

Dak Prescott is the only other signal-caller to win OROY since then, and it’s no coincidence he and Carson Wentz – both were rookies in 2016 – were the last rookies to start all 16 games under center for their respective teams.

Surrounded by a plethora of weapons – David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, and Hakeem Butler, to name a few – if Kingsbury’s offense transitions well to the NFL – his offenses have averaged 550 yards per game and nearly 42 points since 2011 – and Arizona’s offensive line stays healthy, Murray may take the NFL by storm in 2019.

However, as is the case with most futures, people see it as an opportunity to win the lottery. And with odds somewhere between +210 and +150, the payout on Murray isn’t exactly the jackpot most casual bettors are looking for with this type of bet.

Top Bet Counts for Offensive Rookie of the Year

Player Current Odds Sportsbook 1 Bet% at Sportsbook 1
Josh Jacobs +838 15.4%
David Montgomery +1641 13.2%
N’Keal Harry +1805 8.8%
Dwayne Haskins +786 7.9%
Darrell Henderson +1699 7.9%

More casual bettors are throwing small wagers at the rookies with much longer odds than Murray.

Josh Jacobs is the most popular of the bunch. The first-round pick of the Raiders enters his rookie season facing competition from Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, and (maybe) Doug Martin.

In other words, he may be one of the rare three-down backs in the NFL.

Bears’ third-round pick David Montgomery faces a similar situation in his rookie year after Chicago traded away Jordan Howard; although, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen provide much tougher competition on the depth chart than Jacobs faces in Oakland.

My money is firmly on Murray for OROY, but I couldn’t pass up Montgomery at +2000 when he opened. At +1641 odds now, I don’t see Montgomery as being the best value bet on the board. Jacobs now holds that title at +838.

Author Image

Let's have fun and keep it civil.