Upcoming Match-ups

NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds for 2023/24 Regular Season

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Jul 7, 2023 · 1:00 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes celebrates
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • KC Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to throw the most TD passes next season
  • Aaron Rodgers has +650 odds in his first year with the New York Jets
  • A look at the 2023 NFL TD passing leader odds can be found below with a prediction

Much like the NFL MVP odds, the possibilities aren’t endless when predicting the league’s upcoming TD pass leader.

There’s a select few talents that rise to the top of this list.

Not surprisingly, the favorite in the most passing yards category is also the betting favorite here, as Patrick Mahomes completed the double a year ago, en route to a second title with the Chiefs.

There are plenty of intriguing value bets, though, and sprinkling outside the chalk might be your best chance on cashing in on this future wager.

2023 NFL Most TD Passes Odds

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +225
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +450
Josh Allen (Bills) +450
Aaron Rodgers (Jets) +650
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +1100
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +1600
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) +1600
Russell Wilson (Broncos) +2000
Brock Purdy (49ers) +3000
Geno Smith (Seahawks) +3000
Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders) +3500
Jared Goff (Lions) +3500
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) +3500
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) +3500
Matthew Stafford (Rams) +4000
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +4500
Sam Howell (Commanders) +6000
Mac Jones (Patriots) +6500
Jordan Love (Packers) +6500
Deshaun Watson (Browns) +6500

Mahomes checks in as the +225 favorite, after leading the league with 41 TD strikes a season ago, the second time in five years he’s held the mantle.

His contemporaries this era dot three of the next four spots, with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen tied with second-best odds at +450, and Justin Herbert in fifth at +1100.

Lurking inside the top five is veteran Aaron Rodgers (+650), now of the Jets. He last owned the crown in 2020 with 48 TD tosses, and has been the TD king twice in the last seven years.

Odds as of July 6 at DraftKings. Check out the best US betting sites to make all of your NFL offseason prop wagers this summer.


Get Your First Bet Back - Up To $1,000 On Caesars!

$1,000 BACK


Mahomes Leads the Way

The offensive braintrust of Andy Reid’s playcalling coupled with Mahomes, who has already built a resume as one of the NFL’s all-time greats, is hard to bet against, especially when he’s given plus odds in any category.

Stripped of Tyreek Hill and the over-the-top burner to stretch the defense, KC worked a devastating short and intermediate game, and still crushed.

Their offensive weaponry would be suspect outside of Travis Kelce, but Mahomes makes almost anyone look good. Last year, they dusted off veteran Jerick McKinnon and made him a legit redzone threat, totalling nine TD grabs.

Perhaps this year it’s Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney that have career years, or rookie Justyn Ross, or veteran John Ross. With Mahomes, the sky’s the limit.

Who Else Can Challenge?

Thhere could be a leap season coming for Burrow, who’s already been to a Super Bowl and AFC Title game in back-to-back seasons.

With perhaps the most talented receiving unit in the NFL (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd), maybe Zac Taylor eases up on the run-heavy scheme and lets his pivot spin.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that you need to get to 40 TD passes to challenge for the crown. Burrow’s career-best is 35, last year.

Recent NFL TD Passing Leaders

Year Player Passing TDs
2022 Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 41
2021 Tom Brady (Buccaneers) 43
2020 Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 48
2019 Lamar Jackson (Ravens) 36
2018 Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 50

If the Chargers stay healthy (a BIG if), Justin Herbert has as good a chance as any. Nagged by various injuries all season, he had only 25 TD tosses, down from a career-high 38 a year ago.

With Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, rookie Quentin Johnson and Gerald Everett in the mix, +1100 is enticing.

Rodgers leads the revenge tour list, and his drive alone could elevate a good-not-great group of pass catchers that include Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis and Randall Cobb.

Can Sean Payton revive the corpse of Russell Wilson? The TD passing leader in 2017 (36) had a tumultuous first year in his new digs, but Payton’s arrival should elevate him. He helped Drew Brees win four of five TD pass titles from 2008-2012. At +2000, it might be the best value of the bunch.


Get Your First Bet Back - Up To $1,000 On Caesars!

$1,000 BACK


TD Passing Leader Prediction

I say might because there is a darkhorse lurking in plain sight. Lamar Jackson got paid, and the Ravens finally surrounded him with playmakers outside of Mark Andrews.

Odell Beckham Jr should be his go-to guy, and Nelson Agholor is a nice veteran addition. They should help rookie Zay Flowers and youngsters Roshod Bateman and Devin Duvernay level up. The TD passing leader in 2019, Jackson has great value at +4500.

Even as great as Mahomes has been, he has only won this crown twice in his five years and no one has gone back-to-back since Brees in 2011 and 2012.

Let’s swing for the fences with this one — but don’t forget to sprinkle around!

Pick: Jackson (+4500)

Author Image