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NFL MVP Odds After Week 1 – Mahomes Leapfrogs Allen Into Favorite’s Role

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 12, 2022 · 6:12 AM PDT

NFL MVP odds
Sep 11, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the pregame warm-up before facing the Arizona Cardinals in the season opener at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-Arizona Republic Nfl Kansas City Chiefs At Arizona Cardinals
  • Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the +500 NFL MVP chalk after Week 1 action
  •  Previous favorite Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is next at +550
  • Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow faded to +1600 following a four-interception performance in a loss to Pittsburgh. See the updated NFL MVP odds for all the top contenders below

The new face at the top of the NFL MVP odds is a familiar face.

Even though Josh Allen got the job done for the Buffalo Bills in a 31-10 Week 1 road victory over the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, he was relinquishing his standing as the NFL MVP chalk. Mr. Week 1 is now atop the leaderboard.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 NFL MVP, moved ahead of Allen after leading the Chiefs to an impressive 44-21 drubbing of the Cardinals at Arizona.

Mahomes saw his betting line shorten from +750 to +500. Allen’s numbers also shortened in this betting market. He went from +700 down to +550.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +500
Josh Allen (Bills) +550
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +700
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +1200
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) +1400
Russell Wilson (Broncos) +1500
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1500
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +1600
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1600
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) +2200
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +2500
Matthew Stafford (Rams) +3000
Derek Carr (Raiders) +3500
Trey Lance (49ers) +4000
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +4000
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +6000
Jameis Winston (Saints) +6000
Derrick Henry (Titans) +6000
Matt Ryan (Colts) +6000
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) +6000

Odds as of September 12 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code before wagering

It’s Mahomes, Allen and Justin Herbert in the top three of the NFL MVP odds in the table above after Week 1.


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When the NFL MVP future book was first released in February, Mahomes and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers were the co-favorites.

Mahomes Again Massive In Week 1

In four previous Week 1 games, Mahomes was 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. He’d never thrown fewer than three touchdown passes in any of those games.

As good as those performances were, this one was significantly better. Taking Kansas City’s show on the road to Arizona, a 2021 NFL playoff team, Mahomes absolutely lit up the Cardinals.

When the day was done, he’d passed for five TDs. Mahomes was 30-for-39 in the air for 390 yards. He connected with nine different receivers. It was an impressive performance for the Chiefs in their first game of life without All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill, who was traded to Miami in the offseason.

Mahomes threw for TDs on each of Kansas City’s first three drives. He’s now hit for 18 TD passes against zero interceptions in Week 1 games over his NFL career.

Allen Solid But Not Spectacular Against Rams

From a team standpoint, the Bills, favorites in the Super Bowl odds, were impressive in dismantling the Rams. However, it would be wrong to label Allen’s performance as spectacular.

The good news? Allen threw for three TDs and ran for another. He was 26-of-31 for 297 yards passing.

And the bad news? Allen was picked off twice. Overall, Buffalo turned the ball over four times.

Still, there was a lot to like about Buffalo’s performance. Allen’s double threat capabilities alone make him a legit MVP contender as does his passing accuracy. He’s now rushed for 32 TDs during his NFL career.

It was Allen’s seventh game with three TD passes and a rushing TD. In NFL history, only Drew Brees (nine) and Tom Brady (eight) show more. FanDuel Sportsbook is still bullish on Allen. That book is still listing him as the +450 chalk in the NFL MPV odds.


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Movers and Shakers in NFL MVP Odds

At the top of those who are falling is the guy who was felled by injury Sunday night. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury in their loss to Tampa Bay. The early prognosis is he’ll undergo surgery and is expected to be out several weeks.

At FanDuel, Prescott’s NFL MVP odds skyrocketed from +1700 to +5000. Caesars Sportsbook took the Dallas QB right off the board.

A four-interception performance in a loss to the Steelers saw Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow’s betting line jump from +1300 to +1600.

In the other direction, an impressive showing against Detroit shortened the betting line of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts from +3000 to +1400. Justin Herbert of the Chargers went from +900 to +700 following LA’s win over the Raiders.

Too Early to Make NFL MVP Projections

Basing an NFL MVP betting strategy off Week 1 outcomes is not a wise decision. Rodgers had slumped to +1000 entering Sunday’s action. He’s now at +1600 following Green Bay’s loss to Minnesota.

Last season, the Packers lost 38-3 to New Orleans in Week 1. If anything, this might be the time to get a little action on Aaron. History suggests he only figures to get better.

The bottom line is don’t overreact to one game. If Allen was your guy, stay the course. Were you a Mahomes supporter, then stand pat.

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