- Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the +500 NFL MVP chalk after Week 1 action
- Previous favorite Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is next at +550
- Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow faded to +1600 following a four-interception performance in a loss to Pittsburgh. See the updated NFL MVP odds for all the top contenders below
The new face at the top of the NFL MVP odds is a familiar face.
Even though Josh Allen got the job done for the Buffalo Bills in a 31-10 Week 1 road victory over the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, he was relinquishing his standing as the NFL MVP chalk. Mr. Week 1 is now atop the leaderboard.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 NFL MVP, moved ahead of Allen after leading the Chiefs to an impressive 44-21 drubbing of the Cardinals at Arizona.
Mahomes saw his betting line shorten from +750 to +500. Allen’s numbers also shortened in this betting market. He went from +700 down to +550.
2022 NFL MVP Odds
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||+500|
|Josh Allen (Bills)||+550|
|Justin Herbert (Chargers)||+700|
|Tom Brady (Buccaneers)||+1200|
|Jalen Hurts (Eagles)||+1400|
|Russell Wilson (Broncos)||+1500|
|Lamar Jackson (Ravens)||+1500|
|Joe Burrow (Bengals)||+1600|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||+1600|
|Kirk Cousins (Vikings)||+2200|
|Kyler Murray (Cardinals)||+2500|
|Matthew Stafford (Rams)||+3000|
|Derek Carr (Raiders)||+3500|
|Trey Lance (49ers)||+4000|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)||+4000|
|Justin Jefferson (Vikings)||+6000|
|Jameis Winston (Saints)||+6000|
|Derrick Henry (Titans)||+6000|
|Matt Ryan (Colts)||+6000|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||+6000|
Odds as of September 12 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code before wagering
It’s Mahomes, Allen and Justin Herbert in the top three of the NFL MVP odds in the table above after Week 1.
When the NFL MVP future book was first released in February, Mahomes and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers were the co-favorites.
Mahomes Again Massive In Week 1
In four previous Week 1 games, Mahomes was 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. He’d never thrown fewer than three touchdown passes in any of those games.
As good as those performances were, this one was significantly better. Taking Kansas City’s show on the road to Arizona, a 2021 NFL playoff team, Mahomes absolutely lit up the Cardinals.
Patrick Mahomes today:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) September 11, 2022
When the day was done, he’d passed for five TDs. Mahomes was 30-for-39 in the air for 390 yards. He connected with nine different receivers. It was an impressive performance for the Chiefs in their first game of life without All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill, who was traded to Miami in the offseason.
Mahomes threw for TDs on each of Kansas City’s first three drives. He’s now hit for 18 TD passes against zero interceptions in Week 1 games over his NFL career.
Allen Solid But Not Spectacular Against Rams
From a team standpoint, the Bills, favorites in the Super Bowl odds, were impressive in dismantling the Rams. However, it would be wrong to label Allen’s performance as spectacular.
The good news? Allen threw for three TDs and ran for another. He was 26-of-31 for 297 yards passing.
Still thinking about this absurd stiff arm from Josh Allen last night 😤
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 9, 2022
And the bad news? Allen was picked off twice. Overall, Buffalo turned the ball over four times.
Still, there was a lot to like about Buffalo’s performance. Allen’s double threat capabilities alone make him a legit MVP contender as does his passing accuracy. He’s now rushed for 32 TDs during his NFL career.
It was Allen’s seventh game with three TD passes and a rushing TD. In NFL history, only Drew Brees (nine) and Tom Brady (eight) show more. FanDuel Sportsbook is still bullish on Allen. That book is still listing him as the +450 chalk in the NFL MPV odds.
Movers and Shakers in NFL MVP Odds
At the top of those who are falling is the guy who was felled by injury Sunday night. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury in their loss to Tampa Bay. The early prognosis is he’ll undergo surgery and is expected to be out several weeks.
At FanDuel, Prescott’s NFL MVP odds skyrocketed from +1700 to +5000. Caesars Sportsbook took the Dallas QB right off the board.
#Cowboys QB Dak Prescott likely suffered a Bennett fracture and will likely be out for 6-8 weeks.@sportsdocmatt provides insight on Dak's hand injury, and when we will see him back on the field. pic.twitter.com/vK8ueZemCI
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 12, 2022
A four-interception performance in a loss to the Steelers saw Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow’s betting line jump from +1300 to +1600.
In the other direction, an impressive showing against Detroit shortened the betting line of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts from +3000 to +1400. Justin Herbert of the Chargers went from +900 to +700 following LA’s win over the Raiders.
Too Early to Make NFL MVP Projections
Basing an NFL MVP betting strategy off Week 1 outcomes is not a wise decision. Rodgers had slumped to +1000 entering Sunday’s action. He’s now at +1600 following Green Bay’s loss to Minnesota.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert are just miles above everyone else
— lindsey ok (@lindseyyok) September 11, 2022
Last season, the Packers lost 38-3 to New Orleans in Week 1. If anything, this might be the time to get a little action on Aaron. History suggests he only figures to get better.
The bottom line is don’t overreact to one game. If Allen was your guy, stay the course. Were you a Mahomes supporter, then stand pat.
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