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NFL MVP Odds & Picks – Josh Allen Favored Over Patrick Mahomes

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 4, 2022 · 7:31 AM PDT

Josh Allen drops back to pass
Aug 20, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to throw the ball against the Denver Broncos during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
  • Josh Allen has the shortest 2022 NFL MVP odds at +700, followed by Patrick Mahomes at +900
  • A QB has won the award in nine straight seasons, and in 14 of the past 15 years overall
  • Read below for complete odds, analysis and best bets to win the NFL MVP award

The NFL is a quarterback driven league. If you have one of the top-12 guys your team has a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl. Without one, your ceiling is a low-end playoff team at best.

Oddsmakers know this as well as anyone, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top-18 contenders to win the Most Valuable Player award all play the quarterback position.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Josh Allen (BUF) +700
Patrick Mahomes (KC) +900
Tom Brady (TB) +900
Justin Herbert (LAC) +1000
Aaron Rodgers (GB) +1100
Joe Burrow (CIN) +1300
Russell Wilson (DEN) +1400
Matthew Stafford (LAR) +1400
Dak Prescott (DAL) +1800
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +1800
Kyler Murray (ARI) +2200
Derek Carr (LV) +2500
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +2500
Trey Lance (SF) +2500
Matt Ryan (IND) +4000
Kirk Cousins (MIN) +4000
Mac Jones (NE) +5000
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +6000
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +6000
Derrick Henry (TEN) +6600
Jameis Winston (NO) +6600
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +8000

Odds as of September 4th at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the 2022 NFL MVP.

Josh Allen is the leader of the pack in the NFL MVP odds, followed by 2018 winner Patrick Mahomes and three-time MVP Tom Brady. A quarterback has won NFL MVP honors in nine consecutive seasons, and in 14 of the past 15 years overall.

The last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. AP rushed for 2,097 yards that season, the second most in NFL history. However, given the way the MVP voting shook out last year, it’s never been more clear that a quarterback is a near lock to take home the trophy.

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Fade All Non-QBs

In 2021, Cooper Kupp had one of the greatest wide receiver seasons of all-time. He won the receiving triple crown and finished with the second most receptions and receiving yards in NFL history. Still, those accolades only earned him the third most MVP votes.

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady finished ahead of him, despite neither one of them having a season anywhere close to their career best.

Simply put, skill position players are replaceable. Jonathan Taylor’s backup isn’t as talented as he is, but the gap between him and his replacement is far smaller than the one between Mahomes and the Chiefs second string QB. If Mahomes goes down, KC could easily go from first to worst in the AFC West. If Taylor is injured, the Colts will remain competitive with Nyheim Hines running the rock.

Speaking of Taylor, he, Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp are the only three non-QB’s among the 24 shortest priced MVP candidates. For one of them, and other non-QB to win the award they would literally have to rewrite the record book at their position. That’s highly unlikely to happen, which should encourage you to only wager on quarterbacks.

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Allen or Mahomes Up Top?

There really isn’t a strong argument to be made against Allen or Mahomes for MVP. Allen has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 36 TD in back-to-back seasons, while chipping in six or more rushing scores as well. He’s surrounded by playmakers, and quarterbacks one of the pass happiest offenses in football.

Critics might point to the fact that Buffalo lost its OC to the Giants, but it’s much more likely that Allen’s overwhelming recent success is due to his outrageous physical talent than his play caller.

As for Mahomes, we’ve seen his ceiling and it’s one that few can touch. He threw for 5,000+ yards and 50 TD in his first full NFL season, and has tossed for at least 4,700 yards and 37 scores in back-to-back years. The Chiefs rank among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation, and Mahomes is coached by Andy Reid, one of the brightest minds in football.

Will the loss of Tyreek Hill hurt? Potentially, but Mahomes is one of the greatest QB talents we’ve ever seen and will likely make stars out of Juju Smith-Schuster and company.

Both he and Allen are very worthy of their current price tags, but if forced to choose one Mahomes at the slightly better price offers more value.

Lamar a Worthy Longshot

Speaking of value, we cannot ignore Lamar Jackson at +1800. He won the award just three years ago, and has legit 3,500 yard, 35+ TD upside with his arm, and 1,200 yard, 10+ TD upside with his legs. Those numbers may seem preposterous, but he came awfully close to accomplishing the feat in 2019, playing in only 15 games.

Critics can talk about how the league has figured him out after a down 2021 campaign, but the Ravens were one of the most injury riddled teams in football and Jackson was playing behind a second and third string offensive line for most of the season.

The Ravens will enter this season in good health, and if they stay that way Lamar is going to put up video game numbers once again. He’s my preferred target at +1800.

Pick: Lamar Jackson (+1800)

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