New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Line & Spread

• The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) take on the New England Patriots (2-1) Monday at 7:05 pm ET
• With the news that Cam Newton will not be playing and the date shifting, the odds have been updated
• We break down the Week 4 match-up and give the best bets

**This is an updated version of a previous post regarding the Patriots/Chiefs game**

After a whirlwind couple of days, the NFL has landed on a date for the delayed game between the Patriots and Chiefs.

The two will kick-off at 7:05 pm ET from Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night. So far, Cam Newton and practice squad quarterback Jordan Ta’amu are the only confirmed COVID-19 cases.

The news has significantly changed the betting landscape for this game, as the Patriots will be without their star quarterback.

Patriots vs Chiefs Week 4 Odds

Odds as of Oct 3rd at DraftKings

Before the news, the Patriots vs Chiefs Betting Trends had seen New England receive a healthy amount of the action. They were +260 on moneyline, but were slightly favored to cover the -7.0 point spread. The total for the game was set at 53.

Understandably the odds have shifted heavily in the Chiefs’ favor. With Brian Hoyer expected to start, KC is now heavy favorites, and the spread is up to 10.5. The total dropped as well.

What is the Plan for Brian Hoyer?

The Patriots are famous for having Plans B, C and D. But no one could have seen this coming.

Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test means that Brian Hoyer will start for New England.

Brian Hoyer vs. Patrick Mahomes. That seems fair.

— Costaki Economopoulos (@FunnyCostaki) October 3, 2020

The plus side, is that no quarterback on the roster has a better relationship with Josh McDaniels, or more knowledge of the Patriots’ offense. The unfortunate side is that Hoyer has thrown 67 regular season passes the last two seasons.

With no preseason, Hoyer, like most NFL backup QBs at this point, is cold. And will be coming into the game with no time to practice between Saturday and Monday.

While the Pats pride themselves on preparation, this situation is extreme. The Chiefs will likely be able to stack the box to protect against the run, and Hoyer doesn’t present the same versatility that Newton does. The Patriots will have to rely on game-planning to open up the passing game.

Belichick’s Plan for Slowing Chiefs’ Offense

Regardless of who his quarterback is, the thing that Bill Belichick is famous for, is taking away your best player. But for the Chiefs, that’s Patrick Mahomes.

Because that’s nearly impossible, you have to switch your attention to his weapons.

Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce vs Patriots Since 2018

Kelce has never had more than 70 yards in a game with Mahomes at quarterback against the Patriots. His lone touchdown came in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. He’ll get the same treatment, which just held the Raiders’ Darren Waller to two catches and nine yards last week.

Hill torched them during their 2018 regular season meeting for 142 yards and three touchdowns. He’s combined for 104 yards on eight catches in the other two games. He won’t draw Stephon Gilmore, but a faster corner with lots of safety help.

Over the next few days you’ll hear a lot about the @Patriots “man coverage” vs the @Chiefs
Sounds simple-far from it-NE has more “man coverages” than anyone. The challenge for Reid & EB-anticipating WHICH ONE & calling the RIGHT PLAY for it! @ArrowheadPride @ESPNNFL @PatsFans pic.twitter.com/GTPx33qWKf

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) October 2, 2020

What this means is KC will likely rely on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Currently second in the NFL Rookie of the Year odds, CEH should have some room to run against a defense that has allowed the 10th-most first downs on the ground and 4.6 yards-per-carry.

Chiefs Dominate at Arrowhead

Yes, it’s a daunting task for Hoyer, but it’s not a situation he’s unfamiliar with. He almost started the 2018 AFC Championship game after Tom Brady sliced his thumb open.

But this is not the same Patriots offense, and this isn’t the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots defense has typically done an OK (and yes, that’s a compliment) job at defending against Patrick Mahomes. Expect them to try to give Hoyer every opportunity to hand around.

An upset would have been tough with Cam at the helm however, and that was with a week’s worth of prep. The Pats simply won’t produce enough offensively to cover or hit the over.

The Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-107, 1 Unit), Under 50 (-110, 1 Unit)