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NFC Favored Over AFC in Early Super Bowl 53 Moneyline

SBD Staff Writer

by SBD Staff Writer in NFL Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 6:43 AM PST

Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams throwing the ball
Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams are just one of a handful of NFC teams with a great shot at winning Super Bowl 53. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)
  • An early moneyline has just been released for Super Bowl 53
  • The NFC has been labeled favorites
  • Is it worth taking the value with the AFC right now?

We’re still nine days away from the Falcons taking on the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles to kickoff the 2018 NFL season. But that hasn’t stopped one online sports betting site from releasing an early moneyline for Super Bowl 53.

Early Super Bowl 53 Moneyline

Conference Early Super Bowl 53 Moneyline
NFC Champion -130
AFC Champion +100

Since the merger, the NFC holds a slight advantage in Super Bowls, with a 25-23 record. But this isn’t the reason they are being labeled as favorites this early.

Average Super Bowl 53 Odds of Top Contenders

As you see in the graph, two of the top three Super Bowl 53 contenders are from the NFC, as well as five of the top seven. It’s a loaded conference.

This is more than the AFC can say, who are basically just relying on the New England Patriots, who are the Super Bowl 53 favorites, and maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The table below outlines the parity the NFC has experienced over the last five seasons, while the AFC has been dominated by two teams.

Recent Super Bowl Outcomes

Super Bowl AFC Team NFC Team SB Champion Score
48 Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks (NFC) 43-8
49 New England Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots (AFC) 28-24
50 Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos (AFC) 24-10
51 New England Patriots Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots (AFC) 34-28
52 New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles (NFC) 41-33

Not convinced yet? OK.

There were four teams out of the AFC that had double digit wins in 2017: the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, and Jaguars. The NFC South had three on their own: New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina. In total, there were six in the NFC – add in the Eagles, Vikings, and Rams.

Though it may be one of the few times you’re getting plus-odds betting on the Patriots to win this season, it’s not worth putting your faith in a 41-year-old quarterback and a so-so team around him.

I’d bet the NFC now while the moneyline is only -130.

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