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NFL Betting – Kelly Era Begins as 49ers Meet Rams

Zack Garrison

by Zack Garrison in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 42.5 o/u) at San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles football fans – all ten of them – will have to wait one more week for the return of real NFL football to the City of Angels. But tonight will mark the beginning of a new era for another California team as the San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2015) play their first game under Chip Kelly when they host the relocated Los Angeles Rams (7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) at Levi’s Stadium on Monday Night Football (10:20 PM Eastern).

Kelly is known for his uptempo offense, but doesn’t exactly have a loaded arsenal in San Francisco. Jacksonville castoff Blaine Gabbert (2,031 yards, ten TDs, seven INTs) leads an offense that finished dead-last in the league in points per game last season (14.9 PPG). Gabbert’s best option on the outside is a past-his-prime Torrey Smith (663 yards, four TDs).

The Niners could get a boost from Carlos Hyde in the backfield, but ample concerns surround the ground game as well. Hyde had a monstrous Week 1 last season and looked poised for a breakout campaign, however he was hampered by injury the rest of the way and only amassed 470 yards and three TDs in (portions of) seven games. His health will be key to everything Kelly wants to do on offense this season. The uninspiring Shaun Draughn is the next man up on the Niner depth chart.

The Rams have an equally concerning QB situation on their hands. After mortgaging their future to move up to no. 1 in the draft, franchise quarterback-to-be Jared Goff won’t even dress tonight. Instead, he’ll watch Case Keenum (828 yards, four TDs and one INT) pretend he’s an NFL-caliber pivot.

Keenum and the Rams were last in the league in passing yards in 2015 (175.3 YPG) and didn’t solve the problem in the offseason. In fact, they got rid of promising tight end Jared Cook (481 yards). That’s going to put all the pressure on sophomore back and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Todd Gurley (1,106 yards, ten TDs).

Gurley proved to be a man among men when healthy last season, but even he struggled when Keenum took over. When defenses don’t respect your passing game at all, there’s only so much the ground game can do. While the Niners’ rush defense didn’t dominate last year, according to PFF, they were much weaker in sub-packages than in their base defense. There’s no need to play an extra corner against the Rams.

Led by popular Defensive MVP pick Aaron Donald, the Rams have an excellent front-seven and will make life difficult on Hyde, healthy or otherwise. It will require all of Kelly’s creativity for his motley crew to move the ball against St. Louis. The same could be true of the Rams’ offense, though, and Jeff Fisher doesn’t have an ounce of creativity in his body.

I’ll take the points and roll with the Niners – who are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog – as the Rams (1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games) continue with their “7-9 BS.”

 


Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].

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