NFL Betting: Saturday’s Divisional Round ATS Picks

If you support a team that didn’t make the playoffs, like myself, you’re probably just looking for good football in the postseason. Unfortunately, Wild Card Weekend didn’t deliver. And now the first day of the Divisional Round features the third-highest playoff spread in the Super Bowl era. On the bright side, the other matchup has the potential to be a classic.

Just to be safe, you may want to spruce these games up with a little (responsible) wager. To help you achieve the responsible part of that, here are the two teams you should back on Saturday of the NFL’s Divisional Round.

If you want advice in podcast form, and from more than just me, have a listen here.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-5)

The Seahawks have done it again. They showed us all how dominant they can be in a 26-6 victory over the Lions in Wild Card Weekend. But that was Seattle playing at C-Link. Can we trust that same team to show up in Atlanta on Saturday? While I’m not counting on it, five is still too many points to lay.

We all remember the controversial finish of the Week 6 meeting in Seattle. A lot has changed since then. Russell Wilson is healthy; Vic Beasley has come to life; Kam Chancellor and Thomas Rawls are both back in the lineup for Seattle, while Earl Thomas is out; Desmond Trufant is sidelined for Atlanta; the Falcons’ defense all of a sudden generates turnovers (nine in the last five games).

What does it all mean? Throw away what you remember from Week 6. Atlanta’s defense is not good. They rank 25th in total defense and 27th in scoring. The biggest concern is the run defense which allows 4.5 yards per carry (26th). While Atlanta’s top-ranked scoring offense will not be shut down, Seattle is going to be able to keep pace when it turns into a shootout.

Matt Ryan is 1-4 in the playoffs and has an 82.6 passer rating in the Divisional Round. That’s a stat that will have to improve dramatically if Atlanta is going to win this game. When Ryan was under a 95.0 passer rating this season, the Falcons were 0-3. Seattle has allowed an average passer rating of 85.0 in 2016, but that number jumps to 93.8 when they are on the road.

I do believe the likely 2016 MVP will show up for this one and lead his team to victory, but I don’t see it coming by more than five points.

Pick: Seahawks (+5)

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-16)

If you’re looking for an Ali vs. Frazier type of quarterback duel, this isn’t the game to tune into. It has more of an Ali vs. Jim Robinson feel to it. Actually, the parallels are a little eerie. So does that mean we should put our money on the Pats to knock the Texans out in the first round? I would.

No team scored fewer touchdowns this season than Bill O’Brien’s squad; and no team allowed fewer points than Bill Belichick’s. Brock Osweiler was decent last weekend but has been awful against good (even average) defenses. He’s faced five teams this season that rank in the top-14 in terms of passer rating, one of which was New England. In those games, he has a 58.0 passer rating.

The Patriots third-ranked run defense is going to slow Lamar Miller and force O’Brien to put the ball in the air. This will be when the game gets out of hand.

If you need any more reason to take the Pats, look to their Week 3 matchup. Rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett was starting his first game for the Pats, and it was on a short week. Houston got crushed 27-0. This time, they’ll have to deal with Tom Brady, who I think most would agree is a little better than Brissett.

Don’t expect this one to be close. If you don’t get all your laundry done on Saturday morning, you’ll likely have an opportunity during the second-half of this game.

Pick: Patriots (-16)

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].