NFL Betting – Sea Searches for Footing vs SF

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40 o/u)

The Seahawks (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) and 49ers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rivalry ain’t what it used to be. Seattle has remained an NFC powerhouse while the Niners have fallen on hard times. But this year is shaping up a little differently with the Hawks limping out of the gate and San Fran playing better than expected. The teams’ Week 3 matchup at CenturyLink Field this Sunday (4:05 PM Eastern) should tell us whether the first two weeks were an abomination or a sign of changing times.

The Niners stunned the football world in Week 1 – their first game under Chip Kelly – by shutting out the Rams, 28-0. Normally, shutting down a Case Keenum-led offense wouldn’t be a shock to anyone. But the Niners were coming off a 5-11 season that saw them surrender nearly 25 points per game, and they brought in Kelly, who basically ignores that entire half of the ball.

Week 2’s 46-27 setback to the Panthers was more of what people expected from San Fran. Cam Newton lit up the secondary for 353 yards and four majors while Fozzy Whittaker hit 100 yards on 16 carries. The Niners hit some big plays of their own – including a 75 yard TD pass to Vance McDonald – but didn’t have the horses to run with Carolina for 60 minutes.

Blaine Gabbert was not efficient under center, going 17 of 36 and tossing two INTs. He’s now 39 of 71 for 413 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 74.4 passer rating. After a big Week 1, Carlos Hyde was shutdown in the running game, picking up just 34 yards on 14 carries. So, on the one hand, Kelly found ways to score – as usual – but was also putting his defense on the field in bad spots far too often – as usual.

When it comes to finding the end zone, Kelly will have his toughest task to date on Sunday against a Seattle defense that leads the league in scoring, surrendering just 19 points in two games. The Hawks have faced two less-than-stellar offenses in LA and Miami, but that doesn’t really take away from how good the D has looked. The only real area of concern has been the spotty play of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas. Seattle’s defensive stats would be a bit worse if not for some drops by Miami on deep balls in Week 1.

Thomas’ struggles are the least of coach Pete Carroll’s concerns, of course. He’s much more focused on getting his offense – 15 points through two games – in gear.

Unfortunately for Carroll, his O-line looks even worse than last year and QB Russell Wilson hasn’t been able to scramble the way he usually does thanks to a high-ankle sprain. Without Wilson’s mobility, it’s been impossible to mask the O-line’s flaws.

It’s hard to see that situation rectifying itself this week. San Fran has a decent front-seven. It’s not on par with the Rams, but it’s still a plus unit, and the Niners will surely game plan to bring pressure.

That’s going to put the offense on the shoulders of the ground game, which has its own problems. Starting RB Thomas Rawls left last week’s game with a leg injury. His status for Sunday is uncertain. Christine Michael (25 carries, 126 yards through Week 2) has been the more effective runner, anyway, so there shouldn’t be much of a drop off in terms of yards-per-carry. But Michael also fumbled away last week’s game and struggles picking up blitzes.

Everyone who’s been with the Hawks for a few years should come into Sunday with confidence. The team has dominated San Fran lately, going 10-0 ATS in the last ten against their division rival and winning five in a row, straight-up. But the Seahawks are 0-2 ATS on the season thanks to their sputtering offense and I see no reason for them to be laying 9.5 points to anyone right now. Despite the trends, take the points.

Pick: 49ers (+9.5)

Photo Credit: Mike Morris (Flickr) CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.