NFL Conference Championship Props: A Defensive/Special Teams Score Will Get You Paid

• Will Patrick Mahomes lead all quarterbacks in passing yardage this weekend?
• The Wild Card and Divisional Round has seen both a defensive score and special teams TD – does the trend continue?
• Check our analysis and prediction for prop bets during the NFL Conference Championship games

This is going to be a fun weekend, football fans. We’ve already set you up with who you should be wagering on looking at the spreads – now it’s time to spice up the game with some prop bets for your viewing pleasure. We’ll start with the scoreboard, which we expect to get lit up.

Prop #1: Most Points Scored By a Team in Conference Championship

*All odds taken January 8

Analysis: The line in the divisional round was set at 36.5, and thanks to the Chiefs going berserk against the Texans, we got there. The oddsmakers have added an extra half-point for the Conference Championship games, and it’s still a line worth looking at. The Packers passed that scoring mark just twice in the regular season. Surprisingly, that’s the same number as the Chiefs, while Tennessee bettered 37 points three times — two under Ryan Tannehill — and the 49ers have cracked 37 or better four times, including the Week 12 37-8 thrashing of the Packers.

The game where I see this happening is in the AFC title tilt. The Titans beat the Chiefs in an impressive 35-32 win in Week 10. You can expect more scoring in this one, especially because Patrick Mahomes looks fully healthy from the ankle and knee ailments that slowed him down early in the year. In a short career filled with jaw-dropping moments, he put together an all-time wow performance in the Divisional Round against the Texans.

Patrick Mahomes is the first player in NFL history with 300 Pass yards, 50 Rush yards and 5 Pass TD in a playoff game 🔥

(via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/hJlNTLwS1W

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2020

Mahomes is coming off a game where he led seven straight touchdown drives to eviscerate Houston and turn a 24-0 deficit into a 20-point win. There’s plenty to prove against Tennessee: in that Week 10 loss, the Chiefs’ offense left numerous points on the board, settling for four field goals instead of touchdowns on the Titans’ side of the field.

Tennessee knows it’s going to take points to beat the Chiefs, even with pounding the rock with Derrick Henry. And don’t discount a throwback effort from Aaron Rodgers: one of the best QB’s of his generation will need to be prime Rodgers to compete with a deeper and more potent Niners’ offense.

The Pick:  OVER 37 (-110) 

Prop #2: Receiving Leader in Conference Championship

Analysis: Hill was his breakaway self against the Titans in Week 10, ripping them for 11 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown in the loss. But his three-catch, 43-yard performance against the Texans is now the sixth straight game he’s gone under 67 yards receiving since that Tennessee outing. But the Titans just watched Travis Kelce destroy the Texans, taking advantage of the single coverage in the middle of the field and finding soft spots in the red zone to catch three TD’s. It’s something that they’ll need to address, which should free up Hill.

Davante Adams from Aaron Rodgers TD 🙌🏽

pic.twitter.com/Id3l2MFOwz

— the Sports ON Tap (@thesportsontap) January 13, 2020

Adams is the favorite for good reason: he’s coming off a franchise-high 160 yards receiving in beating the Seahawks, and, apart from Aaron Jones, is Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted offensive weapon. If the Packers can get him away from Richard Sherman’s side of the field, there are shots to be taken deep, against an otherwise ordinary secondary.

The 49ers were run-heavy against the Vikings, leaving George Kittle mainly in for blocking. He had only 16 yards receiving on three catches. But he feasted against the Pack in Week 12, hauling in all of his six targets for 129 yards and a touchdown – the second highest receiving total on the season.

The last time The #49ers played The #Packers George Kittle went off for 6 catches, 129 yards, and this monster TD. pic.twitter.com/2k5NuQnu3x

— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) January 13, 2020

If you’re looking for deeper value, and you’re feeling the Titans, AJ Brown should be the recipient of the downfield shots from Ryan Tannehill, as you can expect the Chiefs to stuff the box to try and contain Derrick Henry, who’s been running wild all playoffs. If he is your go-to wager, jump over to Sportsbook1, where oddsmakers have him pegged at +1200, nearly doubling the odds at Sportsbook2.

The Pick: Kittle (+400)

Prop #3: Passing Yards Leader in Conference Championship

Analysis: There’s only one choice to make here, and for once, it doesn’t just have to do with Patrick Mahomes’ all-world ability — though that doesn’t hurt either. Every other quarterback in the final four is accomplished, but they lean heavily on a complimentary running game. Ryan Tannehill’s effectiveness ties in heavily to Derrick Henry, while the Niners’ three-headed running back attack of Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman sometimes converts Jimmy Garappolo to overqualified game manager.

Just. Like. That.

Jimmy Garoppolo marches the 49ers down the field on the team’s first series and puts San Francisco up early on the Vikings with the TD!

pic.twitter.com/coeT4I3jPW

— USA TODAY NFL (@usatodaynfl) January 11, 2020

Aaron Rodgers has a steady running attack with by Aaron Jones, with Jamaal Williams providing the change of pace, and that’s part of the reason that the Packers’ pivot has thrown for over 300 yards once in his last nine outings.

Just like that, Patrick Mahomes tosses the go-ahead TD pass to Travis Kelce. After further review, the ruling on the field stands, too.

So after falling behind 24-0, the Chiefs have now taken a 28-24 lead and Mahomes has four TD passes.

Ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/HD5XHPrP9C

— Terez A. Paylor (@TerezPaylor) January 12, 2020

The lack of running attack hasn’t affected the Chiefs, as Andy Reid has devised an offense that maximizes the greatest weapon in the NFL. Running for the Chiefs is limited to short yardage and goal line scenarios, while Mahomes is unleashed in a passing scheme that takes advantage at all levels of the field. That was on display in full effect in the Divisional Round, as he passed for 321 yards on better than nine yards per attempt.

Damien Williams, meanwhile, rushed just 12 times for 43 yards, including two TD’s from inside the five yard line. He also caught another TD pass.

For the Titans to keep up with the scoring, Tannehill is going to have to throw for more than 100 yards, which is his average output in the playoffs so far. For value, picking the Titans’ pivot is the way to go, but don’t overthink this one. Take your earnings and move on.

The pick: Mahomes (+100)

Prop #4: D/ST Touchdown in Conference Championship

Analysis: There has been a defensive or special teams touchdown in each round of the playoffs, and in such high-stake games, there are always goofy things happening. Logan Ryan was the recipient of a tipped pass to ice the Patriots in the Wild Card round, while the Texans used a blocked punt for a score to blitz the Chiefs when they were rolling to a 24-0 lead.

📽 BOOM ! 😳 David Long force un fumble de Damien Williams, Rashaan Evans récupère et marque un TD de 53 YARDS ! #Titans pic.twitter.com/26HiUwjF1m

— NFL France (@NFLFrance) November 10, 2019

In the Chiefs-Titans game in Week 10, a Rashaan Evans fumble recovery for a score was pivotal in turning around an early 10-point deficit to get the ball rolling in a wild win.

The 49ers were one of the top scoring defenses in the NFL, returning three interceptions for a score, while recovering two fumbles and taking them to paydirt. Conversely, despite 17 interceptions on the year and recovering eight of 12 fumbles on the season, the Packers’ defense failed to score a touchdown.

En un partido muy loco, la jugada mas loca termina siendo TD de Deforest Buckner.??‍♂️pic.twitter.com/1fNQjwug1W

— Pickeados (@Pickeados) November 12, 2019

The Titans have two touchdowns each via interception and fumble return scores during the regular season, while the Chiefs have turned 16 interceptions and seven fumbles into three touchdowns.

The Chiefs are also the only team that were able to score a touchdown via special teams — a Mecole Hardman kickoff return.

The pick: OVER (-110)

Prop #5: Will KC Score More than 50 Points in Conference Championship?

Analysis: After watching one of the greatest offensive explosions in NFL history, the Chiefs look unstoppable with the dominant combination of skill players, Mahomes at the helm, and Andy Reid orchestrating. But putting up back-to-back 50 point games in the NFL is real unicorn searching. In fact, there have only been three teams in the Super Bowl era that have accomplished the feat, the most recent being the 2014 Packers, who hung 55 and 53 in consecutive weeks.

The Chiefs put up 32 points and punted one time against Tennessee in a game in which 8 different offensive linemen play and they kicked six field goals. If you’re going to say the first matchup matters, make sure you know the Chiefs can score 50 on this team. All the facts.

— Talkin’ Chiefs (@TalkinChiefs) January 17, 2020

This marked the third straight year of the occurrence happening. The Packers followed the 2013 Broncos and 2012 Seahawks, and it hasn’t happened since. In Conference Championship history, hitting the 50-point mark has only happened once, in the AFC, when the Bills hammered the Raiders 51-3 in 1990 to advance to the Super Bowl.

If there was a team that could do it, it would be the Chiefs, and while I think they will put up a bushel of points, it won’t be an unprecedented mark.

The pick: No (-1000)