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NFL Conference Championship ATS Picks: After Ousting Lamar, Can the Titans Handle Mahomes?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 5:24 PM PST

Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) carries the ball during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)
  • Titans visit KC and try to slow down red-hot Patrick Mahomes
  • Rodgers returns to San Francisco where Packers were crushed in Week 12
  • Playoff record: 4-4; Regular Season Final Record: 33-35-1

We’re down to the last three games of this NFL season, and what a final four competing for a chance for Super Bowl.

Before we get to that, a couple of quick thoughts on another split week for our picks. Who knew that Pete Carroll would only unleash Russell Wilson when they were on the verge of total collapse? Oh wait, my bad, that’s what they always do. And so much for Minny rising to the challenge — they were run over in Frisco. At least the Titans did the unthinkable, and the Chiefs did … Chiefs things.

Let’s close out strong, starting with what could be a fireworks display in KC.

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Team Spread
Tennessee Titans +7 (-109)
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-109)

*Odds from January 15

Analysis: Very few teams have taken Patrick Mahomes’ best shot and won, but the Titans are one of those teams. In Week 10, Mahomes made his return to the Chiefs’ lineup after a knee injury, and he was electric. He was 36-for-50 for 446 yards and three TD passes — and yet, Tennessee escaped with a 35-32 win, the signature win of a 6-1 run under new starter Ryan Tannehill that helped the Titans get into the playoff picture. It was also the first in a series of monstrous Derrick Henry games to carry them to within a game of the Super Bowl.

Lamar Jackson is the unanimous choice for MVP, but there is literally no one that plays the QB position better right now than Mahomes. He went supernova on the Texans in the Divisional Round after falling behind 24-0. Only under Mahomes could you realistically see a team make up such a deficit in a quarter (a quarter!), part of an overall 51-7 run that featured seven straight TD drives to bury Houston.

It’s ok to think that the Chiefs should dominate this one, but there’s something brewing with these Titans, who laid a whipping on the Ravens to get to the AFC title game.

Their formula is simple: run the hell out of Henry, play stout defense, and win. There’s nothing exotic about Tennessee’s running scheme, but the results have been devastating. Henry will be looking for his fourth straight game of over 180 yards rushing.

Part of his success is because of Tannehill’s regular season deadliness passing out of play action. But the pivot who turned his career and the Titans’ fortunes around this season has been a game manager these playoffs. He’s gone 15-for-29 for 160 yards and three TD’s in two starts. While you expect him to break the 100-yard passing threshold for the first time these playoffs, he’ll be facing a pretty nice Chiefs defense that ranks sixth in passing DVOA.

Can Mike Vrabel and Dean Pees conjure up a gameplan to stifle Mahomes? You can bet they’ll be more creative than Houston in trying to stop Travis Kelce, but there might not be an answer for Tyreek Hill as well, who went for 11 catches, 157 yards and a score in Week 10.

The Titans ranked 31st in red zone defense this year. The only team worse than them? The Texans, and we saw the bludgeoning they took last week.

Even though KC is 11-5-1 ATS this year, including 4-2-1 with a spread of seven or more, I think the Titans are legit good, and while they may not win, they’ll be in this one. The points are nice here.

The Pick: Titans +7 (-109)

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

Team Spread
Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-109)
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-109)

Analysis: It’s not often that an 8-2 team takes a whipping against another elite squad and gets written off, but that’s exactly what happened to the Green Bay Packers, who were crushed in Santa Clara by the 49ers 37-8 in Week 12. It’s the last loss this Packers’ team has tasted, and this Sunday they get to exact a little revenge at the same scene of the crime, with a trip the Super Bowl at stake.

That loss was a low moment in the extremely decorated career of Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers. He went 20-for-33 for 104 yards, the 3.2 yards per attempt setting a career low in his career. And while he is coming off a nice win over the Seahawks, where he went 15-for-27 for 243 yards and two TD’s, while averaging a healthy 9.0 yards per attempt, the 49ers defense appears to have returned to their peak regular season form in the playoffs.

The Niners entered the postseason with the second highest pressure rate in the NFL, and they were virtually unstoppable against the Vikings in the Divisional Playoff. Kirk Cousins was harassed all afternoon and sacked six times by the most talented front four in the playoffs – they became the first team ever with five first-round picks (DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas) recording a sack in a playoff game.

How Rodgers handles that rush will be key. Finding his groove with Davante Adams has been helpful. Adams was unstoppable last week against the Hawks, hauling in a franchise-best 160 receiving yards. Having Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams establish the run would be helpful too.

Since getting trounced in San Fran, Green Bay’s defense has been pretty stingy, holding teams to under 15 points in four games, and breaking 20 just twice. We’ll see how they stand up to the run, as the Niners ground the Vikings to a pulp last week. Their 47 totes set a new franchise mark, and only two of those runs — both kneeldowns — went for a loss of yards. Tevin Coleman went for over 100 yards rushing and two scores last week, but the Niners can turn to Coleman, Matt Breida or regular-season rushing leader Raheem Mostert without any ounce of dropoff.

Limiting the run would allow for Za’Darius and Preston Smith to get after Jimmy Garoppolo, who didn’t do much after throwing a touchdown pass in the first quarter. He had just 19 attempts all game.

Anyone afraid of the dreaded rematch after a beatdown? According the folks at Elias, this will mark the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that two teams will play each other in the playoffs following a win of 25 points or more in the regular season. The winner of that game is 22-14, including 7-2 in conference championship games.

While this points to a 49ers drubbing again, I like Packers hanging around in this one.

The Pick: Packers +7.5 (-109)

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