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NFL Divisional Round Props – Best Bets for the Weekend: At Least One Favorite Is Getting Upset

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 2:12 PM PDT

Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen will need to come up big for the Vikings to upset the 49ers in the Divisional Playoff. Photo by KA Sports (Flickr).
  • Can any wild card teams emerge from the Divisional Playoff round?
  • Derrick Henry a favorite to lead the weekend in rushing
  • Check our analysis and prediction for prop bets during the NFL Divisional Playoff

If Wild Card weekend was the appetizer, the upcoming courses are going to get extra tasty, including this weekend with the NFL Divisional Playoffs. We’ve already seen some crazy upsets and mind-blowing plays (hi, Deshaun Watson!), and there’s no reason to believe that changes now.

After looking up and down the NFL odds, we’ve sized up some prop bets worth considering, beginning with one that seems inevitable.

Prop #1: Wild Card Team Wins in Divisional Playoff

Wild Card Team Win Total in Divisional Playoff Odds
Over 0.5 -114
Under 0.5 -114

*All odds taken January 8

Analysis: There are still three teams that clinched a playoff berth via the wild card that are still standing: the Seahawks and Vikings in the NFC, and the Titans in the AFC. This is the second year in a row three wildcard teams have advanced to the Divisional Playoff. In the last decade, only the 2016 season saw all four advance to this round. And fewer teams have actually taken advantage of that wild card berth: only four teams since the 2009-10 season have advanced to a Conference Championship.

The last team to do it was the 2014 San Francisco 49ers. Two wild card teams made the cut in 2010-11, the Jets in the AFC and the Packers in the NFC. The Pack, of course, went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The only other wild card team to advance was the 2010 Jets.

But if there’s ever a year that the wild cards break through, why not this one? The incumbent quarterbacks that we’ve come to know and love during the last decade (think Brady, Brees and Ben) are not in the mix, and only two quarterbacks that have a chip to their name are still in the postseason. One of those pivots is Russell Wilson, who narrowly missed a division title on a reviewed goal line play to the 49ers. They’re no ordinary wild card team.

The Vikings didn’t catch their groove until midseason, when Kirk Cousins started connecting all over the field with his receivers, and the Titans were still in the mix for the AFC South crown despite Ryan Tannehill not starting until Week 7.

The Pick: Over 0.5 wins (-114) 

Prop #2: Rushing Leader in Divisional Playoff

Player Team Odds
Derrick Henry Titans +150
Dalvin Cook Vikings +550
Lamar Jackson Ravens +550
Aaron Jones Packers +600
Mark Ingram Ravens +800
Raheem Mostert 49ers +800
Carlos Hyde Texans +900
Damien Williams Chiefs +900
Marshawn Lynch Seahawks +2000

Analysis: It’s clear that Derrick Henry has been the best back in football, particularly in the latter half of the season, coming on to win the rushing title, with a 200+ yard performance to close out Week 17, then thrashing the Pats en route to 182 yards rushing in a win.

But he’s up against the Ravens, who have a legit, championship-caliber defense, with a head coach in John Harbaugh who should find a way to at least try and contain him. Also, there’s also better value just moving slightly down the board.

The Seahawks surrendered 120 yards rushing to the mash unit that was the Eagles last week. If the Pack feed Aaron Jones like expected, he could be in for a big day.

Of the remaining teams in the playoffs, the Chiefs statistically have the worst run defense, surrendering better than 128 yards a contest, which was seventh in the NFL this year. That was before their D went supernova on a season-ending six-game win streak, limiting teams to 11.5 points a game, and surrendering 101 yards rushing or less in five of the games.

I like the fact that Minnesota pounds the rock at better than 30 attempts a game and Dalvin Cook is the centerpiece of that offense. I also like that Baltimore churns out 200 yards rushing a game as a team. Somehow, I think the Titans are going to force Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm rather than his legs.

The Pick: Dalvin Cook (+550)

Prop #3: Receiving Yards Leader in Divisional Playoff

Player Team Odds
DeAndre Hopkins Texans +500
Adam Thielen Vikings +600
Davante Adams Packers +600
Tyreek Hill Chiefs +600
DK Metcalf Seahawks +750
George Kittle 49ers +800
Tyler Lockett Seahawks +800
Stefon Diggs Vikings +900
Deebo Samuel 49ers +1000
Mark Andrews Ravens +1000
AJ Brown Titans +1200
Marquise Brown Titans +1400

Analysis: The worst passing defense left in the playoffs is the Texans, who ranked 29th in passing yards allowed per game. While this should mean bombs away for Tyreek Hill, he’s been bottled up in the KC offense since coming back from injury in Week 13, failing to top 72 yards receiving in his last five games.

Another poor defender of the pass are the Seahawks, who were 27th in the regular season, surrendering over 263 yards a contest. I think Davante Adams is a decent play here, but like Hill, both have been banged up this year, each playing just 12 games. Adams did have his biggest target and reception totals in Week 16, so perhaps he’s in line for a big day.

Wanna get loco? Let’s get loco. Stefon Diggs was a non-factor in Minnesota’s biggest game of the season against the Saints. He was targeted just three times, and was held to two catches for 19 yards. It also created this uncomfortable situation where he had a fit on the sidelines, while, you know, the rest of his team was locked into winning a game.

But, if you notice the Vikings surrounding Kirk Cousins in the locker room post game, who’s front and center, cheering on his guy? Diggs. Assuming Adam Thielen gets the Richard Sherman treatment, Diggs is a very capable 1A. He’s gone over 100 yards receiving in five games this year, including a three-game stretch where he went for 167, 143 and 143. Don’t worry about the missed practices, he’ll be on the field.

The pick: Stefon Diggs (+900)

Prop #4: Highest Total Scoring Conference in Divisional Playoff

Conference Odds
AFC -5 (-130)
NFC +5 (-110)

Analysis: While it would appear that the AFC is a runaway winner, it’s a lot closer than you’d think. The Ravens lead the league in scoring at 33.2 points a game, and the Chiefs are fifth at 28.2. But the 49ers are second in scoring at 29.9 a contest, while the Seahawks and Vikings are eighth and ninth. The Titans even it out with three teams from each conference inside the top-10 in scoring.

If you’re going by four-team scoring averages combined, AFC playoff team averaged a score of 27.6, with the NFC at 26 points a game. In the AFC, the Texans-Chiefs has the chance to go to a shootout, but so too can the Vikings and 49ers. The Niners, in fact, have scored or surrendered at least 26 points in nine of their last 10 games, and have hit the OVER in seven of those games as well.

There is the potential for the Hawks and Packers to find themselves in a low-scoring affair, and if they’re anywhere near their output from the regular season, the Ravens should post around 28 points. In their last 10 regular season games, the Ravens failed to hit 28 points twice, and went over 30 points six times, including three times eclipsing 40.

Taking the points might be enticing, but there’s too much firepower for the NFC to handle.

The pick: AFC -5 (-130)

Prop #5: Most Points Scored by One Team in Divisional Playoff

Total Odds
Over 36.5 -120
Under 36.5 -120

Analysis: No one during Wild Card weekend came even close to this number, but it’s a peculiar total.

Baltimore, the highest-scoring team in the NFL, broke that threshold just once in December, and that was against the hapless Jets. The Chiefs were only able to top that figure once since Mahomes came back in Week 10, while the 49ers eclipsed that mark five times during the year, the most recent in back-to-back wins against the Cardinals and Packers in Weeks 11 and 12.

Every game is going to be played outdoors, and with the exception of San Francisco, where the temperature will likely be more spring than winter, Baltimore, Kansas City and Green Bay aren’t exactly going to be picnics.

That being said, I keep coming back to Mahomes and Watson, and how they might combine for 1,000 yards passing, or how Rodgers and Wilson perhaps turn back the clock into an old-school shootout; how Lamar Jackson and the Ravens literally can’t be stopped or how Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers have the horses to put up points and outscore their problems against the Vikings.

It’s been a crazy year. Let’s keep the crazy coming.

The pick: Over 36.5 (-120)

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