NFL Week 1 ATS Picks: Life Without Luck Begins for Colts in Los Angeles

• Colts’ program should keep them competitive with Jacoby Brissett at QB
• Rams, Browns look to light it up in Week 1 of the NFL season
• Check out our favorite bets on Sunday

And so it begins.

It’s your first Sunday of NFL football in a while, and we want to make sure it’s a good one. If you’re like us, you’ve quite possibly been dissecting the NFL Week 1 odds since they’ve come out. Here’s where we’re leaning, beginning with a road dog that should be just fine on the coast.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Odds from 09/06/19.

Analysis: Was it the superstar or the system that propelled the Colts to a 10-6 mark and a Wild Card berth last year? The freshly retired Andrew Luck did play an integral part in pushing the Colts to a 10th-place mark in offensive DVOA, en route to averaging 27.1 points per game (fifth in the NFL).

Justin Houston doesn't say much, but he offered this today on Jacoby Brissett:

"I have so much love and respect for him, and I think he’s gonna shock a lot of people. He’s an underdog right now … and I think a lot of people gave up on this team."

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 5, 2019

Backup Jacoby Brissett steps into a situation tailor-made for a superstar to take it to the next level. The Colts boast one of the best offensive lines in football, powered by all-world guard Quentin Nelson and fellow second year teammate Braden Smith. The two anchored a unit that allowed just 18 sacks last year. That will give him the best chance to succeed. That, and a defense that was 10th in defensive DVOA also gets some help from ex-KC standout Justin Houston.

Most Rush Yards in #NFL Since Start of 2016:

Ezekiel Elliott – 4,048
Todd Gurley II – 3,441
Jordan Howard – 3,370
Melvin Gordon III – 2,987
Lamar Miller – 2,934
LeSean McCoy – 2,919

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) September 4, 2019

Meanwhile, the Chargers enter the season down their most versatile defender in Derwin James (foot), their starting left tackle Russell Okung (blood clots), and star running back Melvin Gordon has hunkered down in a contract dispute that could have him miss multiple games. Thankfully, Phil Rivers is ageless and will be able to carry the load. The Chargers are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven Week 1’s, while the Colts are a dismal 1-10 ATS in their previous 11 Week 1’s. Doesn’t matter. Colts may not win, but they are keeping this close.

The Pick: Colts (+6.5)

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Analysis: I just explained why Freddie Kitchens won’t be the NFL Coach of the Year, but that doesn’t mean that the Browns aren’t going to look downright unstoppable at times. Baker Mayfield is the real deal, and expect Odell Beckham Jr in full revenge mode, even with the sore hip. As always, there’s extra baggage when you’re the Browns, but the team is hopeful that they’re a different group than the one that’s riding a 1-18-1 record in their last 20 Week 1’s.

#Browns WR Odell Beckham, Jr. acknowledges he still can’t sprint as fast as he wants. BUT… says adrenaline and energy of Sunday can’t be underestimated, promises his mental game “will push my physical state” and Jarvis Landry says: “he’s still probably the fastest in the room.”

— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) September 5, 2019

The Marcus Mariota train is losing some steam. His health has hampered him and the Titans in recent years, and last season he paced the team to 19.4 points a game, a ghastly 27th ranking in the NFL. They don’t also have all pro tackle Taylor Lewan, so congrats to Dennis Kelly, who graduates to the blind side just in time to try and handle Myles Garrett.

Myles Garrett is a freak. The Browns defensive line will give teams problems this year

https://t.co/ljF1KDsoc2

— Everything Cleveland (@everythingcle_) September 3, 2019

It’s a good test for the Browns, as Mayfield and company will face a defense that gave up just 18.9 points a game in 2018, the third best figure in the NFL. I don’t see them disappointing.

The Pick: Browns (-5.5)

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Analysis: Don’t let the final game of the season last year distract you from the fact that the Rams are one of the best things going in the NFL. While it’s just a matter of time before Todd Gurley’s knees give way, Sean McVay and co. have planned ahead drafting rookie Darrell Henderson, just in case. Cooper Kupp is back from a torn ACL, and that should help Jared Goff. Well, that and $110 million in guarantees from his mega extension.

Sean McVay says Todd Gurley will not be on a play count when they open Sunday against the Panthers.

— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) September 5, 2019

While the Panthers have high hopes for the NFC and beyond, it all hinges on Cam Newton’s surgically repaired throwing shoulder. He says he’s healthy and ready to go, though I doubt he’s ready to fully sling it in their home opener. With a healthy Cam, Carolina scored 21 points or more six of their fist eight games to get to 6-2. They were held at 21 or fewer five times down the home stretch, finishing 1-7.

Cam Newton NOT listed on Carolina's injury report.

Ron Rivera said there is no reason to hold Newton back come Sunday. "I feel good about the work that he has done," Rivera said.

— Steve Reed (@SteveReedAP) September 4, 2019

Regardless, I’m digging the Rams’ and McVay’s no preseason play for their stars ethos, preferring to unleash holy hell in Week 1. They torched the Raiders for 33 last year, and hung 46 on the Colts in 2017.

The Pick: Rams (-1.5)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

Analysis: The Cardinals have fallen on hard times, and last year was the calling card for a tear down. The team finished last in net yards per play in 2018, and they scored a paltry 12.2 points per game at home, also bringing up the rear in the NFL. Enter Air Raid guru Kliff Kingsbury, armed with the top pick in the draft and Heisman winner Kyler Murray, who happened to shred teams to bits in college using the same system.

https://twitter.com/Supreme_gifs/status/1165331840204361728

The Lions are trying to incorporate their own change in offense, moving from perennial name-of-the-year candidate Jim Bob Cooter to Darrell Bevell, he of the slant-throwing call that put Malcolm Butler on the map and the Seahawks’ back-to-back Super Bowl dreams in the tank.

STAFFORD. TATE.
38-yard @Lions TD!

Detroit has the lead! #DETvsDAL #OnePride

📺: FOX https://t.co/6tuwIrBYc7

— NFL (@NFL) September 30, 2018

The hope is he utilizes Matt Stafford’s veteran skills to improve their 23rd-ranked offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, a whole bunch of money was thrown at Trey Flowers to help improve a defense ranked 29th in DVOA a year ago. He, and the late-scoop up of Mike Daniels gives the Lions decent pieces up front.

If Murray can be his elusive self, he should be able to find big chunk plays all over the field, enough for the home dog to scratch one out.

The Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)