Freddie Kitchens Now Favored to Win NFL Coach of the Year Ahead of Kickoff

• Freddie Kitchens has zero career wins as an NFL head coach
• Loaded group of candidates in the +2000 range
• What’s the best bet to make?

Just two short seasons ago, the Cleveland Browns were at the absolute basement of the NFL, logging an 0-16 record. Even considering their lengthy dismal history, it was safe to say they’d reached their apex of futility. But man, nothing stands still in the NFL.

Ahead of kickoff to the 2019 season, the same Browns franchise is the absolute darling of the league. With high hopes on the field, the most recent Ohio-long expectation off it comes from sportsbooks, who have tagged the front man of this new era, Freddie Kitchens, as the favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year.

2019 NFL Coach Of The Year Odds

* Odds from 05/09/19. Click the link in the table for the full list of COY odds
**Midseason replacement

He was already artificially pumped up to start the betting, but Kitchens is now topping a group comprised of the greatest coach in the history of the sport, three Super Bowl winners and four Super Bowl finalists. Minus Vic Fangio and Matt LaFelur, everyone on that Top 14 has more head coaching wins than Freddie’s zero career total.

The story feels good, but should you be pumping the brakes on this bet, and looking for greater value?

The COY Case for Kitchens

It was only a matter of time before the training wheels were going to come off the top pick of the draft, but the rub was that Baker Mayfield was ready to spin from Week 1. No one seemed to embrace that until after Kitchens took over for the deposed Hue Jackson and let his young QB rip.

The Browns will name Freddie Kitchens their new head coach.

That could be good news for Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield posted better numbers across the board after Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator this past season. pic.twitter.com/5OdJw9gI62

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 9, 2019

Under Kitchens’ guidance, Mayfield went 180-for-263 passing (a 68.4% clip) for 2,254 yards, 19 TD and  eight INT’s.

WHAT A DIME.

Mayfield finds Perriman on third-and-nine for the TD! pic.twitter.com/NZe7JY0Qfp

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 16, 2018

But more than Mayfield, it’s the entire arsenal that Cleveland is sporting that has everyone so excited. The acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr adds the explosive element to this unit, allowing Jarvis Landry to slot down and work the underneath route combos that he’s a stud at. Combined, these college teammates at LSU have been dynamite in the pros.

Odell Beckham Jr & Jarvis Landry Career Receiving

Throw in budding superstar Nick Chubb at running back and still-promising tight end David Njoku in the mix, and the Browns have the potential to do some very special things. Let’s just forget the Kareem Hunt bad karma, ok?

The COY Case Against Kitchens

The elephant in the room here is we’re talking about the Cleveland Browns. The team is entering its 21st season since being reborn after the Baltimore theft, and there’s baggage. The team has just one double-digit winning season in the past 20 years (2007). They have just one other winning season in that stretch (2002), representing their lone playoff appearance as the Browns 2.0.

The 3rd Baker Mayfield INT of the game sealed it for the #Ravens who will make the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/omJcMpsVkx

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 31, 2018

They’re also playing in a division with two models of franchise stability in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, who are not about to cede anything to their AFC North upstarts.

Myles Garrett strip sack on following drive… pic.twitter.com/dW6Zp6rU42

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 9, 2018

And while the defense has stars of its own in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and a nice pickup in Olivier Vernon, this is still a unit that allowed teams to move up and down the field, surrendering 393 yards a game – the third worst mark in the NFL last season.

First INT of NFL career☑️

Denzel Ward has AWOKEN. pic.twitter.com/dhodjxsbFQ

— CS Nation (@_CSNation_) September 9, 2018

They also couldn’t get the ball to their offense fast enough, surrendering nearly 24 first downs a game. Only the turnstile D of KC was worse.

The Browns might be talented enough to outscore some problems, but if that offense stalls or (gulp) injuries strike, there’s enough evidence to let us know that this could be so Cleveland.

What’s the Best Bet?

For my dollars, there’s too much risk and not enough reward to go after Kitchens. I’d prefer to targeting the glut of coaches in the +2000 range that have a real chance to turn their franchises around. I’m on the record as calling for Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio to take the COY, though other colleagues think the winner resides in the NFC North, where Matt LaFleur has the chance to reinvigorate one of the great pivots of this generation.

Those two, at the very least, should be ahead of a Kitchens bet. Considering the Browns’ history, it feels more like a gamble than picking a favori