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4 Long Shot Bets for 2019 NFL Season That Present Major Value

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 10:59 AM PDT

Bradley Chubb & Von Miller
Bradley Chubb and Von Miller provide great value bets to lead the NFL in sacks this season. Photo from @AroundTheNFL (Twitter).
  • Broncos Miller and Chubb set to be unleashed in Fangio-led defense
  • Plenty of deep MVP options at the quarterback position
  • Finding the best long shots worthy of a wager

So you’ve made some major commitments after you took a few of the prop bets everyone should be hammering heading into the season, on top of the sure fire bets to get you started that still netted you a profit.

Here’s hoping you have a little left, because we’re offering four of the best long shot bets that present the most value.

Instead of just picking one, we’ve put together a range of the long shots. What you’ll find is the caliber of player there is at least in the same arena as the favorite, with a chance for you to cash in big if you hit the right guy, and the football gods decide to shine down on you this season.

Let’s start with the guys that get after the quarterbacks.

Most Sacks in NFL Regular Season

Player Odds
Von Miller +1100
Bradley Chubb +1500
Joey Bosa +2000
Chandler Jones +2800
Melvin Ingram +4000

* Favorite: Aaron Donald (+265)

Analysis: Going back to the turn of this century, there have been exactly zero players that have gone back-to-back leading the league in sacks. So while Aaron Donald is a legitimate conquerer of worlds, his insane 20.5 sacks is likely his outlier season, since he’s never topped 11 in any other season.

In the Mile High City, you’ve got Bradley Chubb, coming off an impressive 12-sack season as a rookie, working with the iconic Von Miller, who tacked on 14.5 sacks himself. But they’ve also got Vic Fangio in as head coach, one of the highest regarded defensive coordinators in the NFL.

With just Khalil Mack as his primary sack artist a year ago, the Bears were third in the league in total sacks. It’s scary to think how Fangio will devise schemes to get his two-headed monster into backfield early and often.

Chandler Jones is sort of a forgotten man in the desert, but he is literally a year removed from leading the league in sacks. Getting Terrell Suggs to work the other side of the line might just be enough to get him back to the top of the charts.

The Pick: Chubb (+1500) and Miller (+1100)

NFL Coach of the Year

Coach Odds
Dan Quinn +2000
Vic Fangio +2000
Matt Lafleur +2000
Mike Tomlin +2800

* Favorite: Kyle Shanahan (+1000)

Analysis: Maybe he doesn’t want to admit it, but I think this is more Mike Tomlin’s style: no nonsense, no drama. Just a bunch of dudes ready to work.

He still has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and a premier pivot in Ben Roethlisberger, who just set a career-high with 5,197 yards passing, which led the league. JuJu Smith-Schuster isn’t Antonio Brown, but that’s not a bad thing, and James Conner appears ready to handle the rigors of being a bell cow back for a full year.

Rookie Devin Bush might be the tonic to boost up a sagging defense still missing Ryan Shazier. The system is strong here, and should propel Pittsburgh to the top of the North.

But I can’t help but shake that Orange Crush. Fangio inherits a legitimate top-5 defensive unit, an effective running game and a massive upgrade at QB with Joe Flacco. Denver was just 6-10 a year ago and lost seven games by seven points or less. KC dominates the division, but an 11-5 season and a Wild Card should do the trick for Fangio and the Broncos.

The Pick: Vic Fangio (+2000)

Most Rushing Yards in NFL Regular Season

Player Odds
Nick Chubb +1800
Leonard Fournette +3000
James Conner +3300
Aaron Jones +5000
LeSean McCoy +7500

* Favorite: Ezekiel Elliott (+400)

Analysis: While this might turn out to be a Zeke-Saquon showdown, there’s action to be had for the rushing title.

Through the first six games of his NFL career, Nick Chubb rushed for just 173 yards. He pumped in 823 the last 10 games. That 82.3 yards per game average would have had him in the top five of the league.

Somehow, Leonard Fournette is just 24 and entering his third season. Last year was a wash, with injuries and attitude limiting him to eight games and 439 yards rushing. It’s too early to give up on this bowling ball of a man, who could be in for a breakout season.

Part of the emphasis in Green Bay is to create balance, and Aaron Jones is the plan for running the ball effectively. He averaged a hefty 5.5 yards per tote last year,  which led the league, though he appeared in only 12 games.

I’m a sucker for a comeback story, and how wild would it be if Shady McCoy produces one last killer year at age 31 for the Chiefs? The holes in the line should be available, as defenses will be spread thin trying to cover all those weapons. Unlike anyone else listed above, he does have the pedigree, having led the league in rushing in 2013.

The Pick: Chubb (+1800)

NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Ben Roethlisberger +2500
Deshaun Watson +2500
Matt Ryan +2500
Jared Goff +3300
Aaron Donald +6600

* Favorite: Patrick Mahomes (+500)

Analysis: The Texans may have stumbled into an all-in campaign, but they have the main cog to do it with Watson. An improved offensive line with the addition of Laremy Tunsil is a boost to a guy who threw for 4,165 yards and 26 majors in his first year back from a knee injury. If they clean up the league-leading 62 sacks Watson took last year, the sky’s the limit.

You’d think that Mahomes’ season was out of this world, which it was, but plenty of QBs held their own last year. Roethlisberger threw for more yards, and Matt Ryan and Jared Goff were within 300 yards of 5,000 themselves. TD passes was where the KC QB moved from the pack, with Mahomes’ 50 strikes 11 clear of second place.

I like Goff’s value because he’s working under a tactician in Sean McVay, who surely found new and inventive ways to keep Goff churning. Here was a guy who had 26 TD passes through 11 games, but just six in his final five of the year. Maybe he was also missing his favorite receiver in Cooper Kupp too. He appears back and ready for Week 1.

2018 Defensive Player Statistics

Player Sacks Pressures Tackles for Loss QB Hits
Aaron Donald 20.5 106 28 41
Next Closest Player 16.0 (JJ Watt) 95 (Fletcher Cox) 21 (Danielle Hunter) 34 (Cox)

Donald is here because, while he may not win the sack title, his stats across the board as a defender as so much more dominant than any other defensive player. Have a look at his top placements across the board. If the NFL ever comes around to handing an MVP award to a defensive player – Lawrence Taylor in 1986 is the first and only thus far – it should be Donald.

The Pick: Watson (+2500)

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