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The Five 2019 NFL Player Props Everyone Should Hammer

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 11:30 AM PDT

Le'Veon Bell should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season with the Jets. Photo from @NflFull (Twitter).
  • Le’Veon Bell returns after one full season away from the NFL
  • Deshaun Watson gets reinforcements on offense
  • What other prop bets should you be targeting for this season?

On Monday, we told you the surefire bets that would still net you a decent profit.

Today, we’re taking it a step further, and dropping five prop bets that everyone should be hammering as we enter Week 1 of the NFL season.

We’ll start in the Big Apple, where Gang Green spent a lot of green to bolster their offence, fronted by one of the best running backs in football … in 2017.

Le’Veon Bell Rushing Yards

Season Total Odds
Over 1,000 yards -115
Under 1,000 yards -115

Analysis: Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: Bell hasn’t played in a full calendar year, after sitting out in a contract standoff with the Steelers a year ago. He’s also downgrading badly from one of the best offensive lines in the NFL – the Steelers were Pro Football Focus’ third-best unit by grade this summer – to the Jets, ranked fifth-worst.

Here’s the good: this is going to be, bar none, the healthiest Bell has been in his career, which is good, because he’s only played a full 16-game slate once in his five seasons. Excluding his rookie year, he’s rushed for no less than 1,268 yards in three of the last four years (and that one year was when he hurt his knee after just six games).

Other sportsbooks have his line anywhere from 1,125 up to 1,200 yards, but the total means Bell would need to average just 62.5 rushing yards a game to eclipse 1,000. Minus his rookie year, he’s never averaged less than 85.1 yards a game. And even in that rookie campaign, he averaged 66.2.

The Pick: Over 1,000 yards (-115)

Joe Flacco Touchdown Passes

Season Total Odds
Over 16.5 TD passes -135
Under 16.5 TD passes +105

Analysis: This could be one of the most disrespectful lines heading into the NFL season. Take away Joe Flacco’s rookie campaign and the only two other times he didn’t eclipse this TD pass total in his career come with asterisks. The first came in 2015, when he tore his ACL and MCL in a Week 11 win against the Rams, ending his campaign. After 10 games, he finished with 14 TD passes.

The second came last year, when the Ravens made the choice to replace Flacco with Lamar Jackson, injecting life into what had been a stale situation that centred around the 2013 Super Bowl MVP’s inability to move the offense. Even then, Flacco had 12 touchdown passes through nine games.

In Denver, he’ll be given every opportunity to succeed, particularly because second-round pick and heir apparent Drew Lock is both injured and unready to take the reigns in the Mile High City. He’ll have a nice running game, a youthful pack of receivers and a good offensive line to work with.

Heck, Case Keenum was a disaster for the Broncos last year, and he threw 18 TDs. Even Joe being ordinary tops that.

The Pick: Over 16.5 TD passes (-135)

Travis Kelce Touchdown Receptions

Season Total Odds
Over 9 TD receptions +100
Under 9 TD receptions -130

Analysis: I know, tight end is a fickle position. And maintaining TD reception totals – particularly in back-to-back seasons – isn’t exactly common. Check the numbers out from the last decade.

10+ TD Receptions by TE in Back-to-Back Seasons

Player Team Years
Jimmy Graham Saints 2013 & 2014
Julius Thomas Broncos 2013 & 2014
Rob Gronkowski Patriots 2010 & 2011

Since the 2010 season, Kelce became just the 21st player at the position to eclipse 10+ receiving TDs (and Gronk and Jimmy Graham own eight of them). And no one has even gone back-to-back since 2014.

But look at that list, and you’ll see one common thread: elite quarterbacking play. Graham had Drew Brees, Gronk had Tom Brady and Julius Thomas never did anything again once he left the side of Peyton Manning.

Kelce has that now with reigning MVP Pat Mahomes. He’s also the hulking interior receiving presence of what is the current Mercedes-Benz of offenses in the NFL.

He had a career-best 150 targets in 2018 – continuing an upward trend in that category for six seasons and counting. Even if that regresses, his defined role in the offense isn’t changing.

The Pick: Over 9 TD receptions (+100)

Cameron Wake Sacks

Season Total Odds
Over 9 Sacks -105
Under 9 Sacks -125

Analysis: There were two players I was targeting at this spot, but I went with Wake over Terrell Suggs because Wake’s total was 1.5 sacks more.

That’s a big difference, plus it’s hard to go against a future Hall-of-Famer, the current active leader in sacks with 132.5 (and no one else yet at100) and a situation where he’ll likely get one-on-ones to work as the offense has to deal with Chandler Jones on the other side of the line.

Both are in their age-37 seasons. Since sacks became a stat in 1982, 57 players at the defensive line or linebacker position played a season at that age. And it’s a who’s-who of a list who got after the QB at that advanced age.

Players with 9+ Sacks in Age-37 Season

Player Year Sacks
Reggie White* 1998 16.0
Chris Doleman* 1998 15.0
Kevin Greene* 1999 12.0
Julius Peppers 2017 11.0
Bruce Smith* 2000 10.0
Rickey Jackson* 1995 9.5

*Denotes member of Pro Football Hall of Fame

That’s it. That’s all. Six players, five that are already enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and one a first-ballot entry in Peppers. While I think Wake has had a hell of a career, I don’t think he’s joining them. As for Suggs: wager at your own risk.

The Pick: Under 9 sacks (-125)

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards

Season Total Odds
Over 4,090 yards -105
Under 4,090 yards -125

Analysis: Let’s end on a preposterous prop for one of the top young QBs in the game. Last year, Deshaun Watson was floored more than any quarterback in the NFL, sacked 62 times. But when he wasn’t picking himself up off the turf, the Clemson product was setting the NFL on fire, becoming the first QB to ever throw for 4,000+ and run for 500+ yards in a single season, guiding the Texans to a nine-game winning streak late in the year to make the playoffs.

This year, there shouldn’t be a reason Watson dips below last year’s 4,165 yards passing. Not sure if you heard, but the Texans were busy making deals, landing stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Dolphins (though they did pay a hefty price) to hopefully keep Watson upright. They also got Kenny Stills in that deal, adding a legit receiver to a core of all-world DeAndre Hopkins, a (finally) healthy Will Fuller and young Keke Coutee.

Lamar Miller gone with an ACL injury leaves Duke Johnson as the main back (let’s hope they don’t make it Carlos Hyde), whose forte is pass catching. It all points to Watson standing tall in the pocket, and crushing that total.

The Pick: Over 4,090 yards passing (-105)

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