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The 4 Surest Bets to Make Entering 2019 NFL Season That Still Return a Decent Profit

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 8:07 AM PDT

Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers play heavily into our list of surefire bets this NFL season. Photo from @Steel_Faithful (Twitter).
  • Chiefs appear locked for back-to-back AFC West Titles
  • Bengals in tough in competitive AFC North
  • Identifying some sure bets to kick off your NFL season

It’s pretty clear that everyone is ready for some football.

And as the days tick down to Week 1 of the NFL season, we wanted to offer you a light dip into the betting waters, get you comfortable with some sure bets, to bank some W’s before you find yourself staring down some real long shot bets (which, by the way, we’ll be getting ready for you too).

We’d love to get you started off right with the Patriots taking the AFC East (which is the winningest of winning bets), but it comes at a near dud value of -500. We wanted to stay closer to even, setting a bar around the -200 range, and these four bets do that.

Let’s start out west, where there’s a juggernaut lurking, and no one will be able to stop it.

Odds to Win AFC West

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -150
Los Angeles Chargers +165
Oakland Raiders +1400
Denver Broncos +1800

*Odds from 08/30/2019

Easy-money explanation: Say what you want about KC’s defense, which, just with the additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, exponentially improve a stinker of a defense from a year ago, but this team will outscore its problems so long as reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes stays healthy.

YouTube video

In his first full season as starter, the second-year pro set the NFL ablaze with video-game numbers. He threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns, becoming just the second player in league history to hit those figures in the same season, pacing the Chiefs to a 12-4 mark.

He’s even got his full cast of weapons back – including Tyreek Hill, who somehow managed to sidestep a suspension – and the additional burning speed of Mecole Hardman to boot.  Even if Mahomes regresses, like so many expect, that could still mean 4,800 yards and 45 TDs. Scary.

Outlook: You can thank the LA Chargers for handing you this payout. Injury to star safety Derwin James is going to hurt, even though Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will wreak havoc on QBs all year.

Melvin Gordon’s holdout looks like it’s heading into the regular season, and while the Bolts can patch together a makeshift backfield to get them through, there’s just enough roster holes that there won’t be a tie for tops in the West like last year.

Final Divisional Standings – Bengals

Placement Odds
4th -250
3rd +400
2nd +600
1st +1400

Easy-money explanation: This team wasn’t talent-rich to begin with, and losing AJ Green for at least Week 1 hurts. If that’s not enough, Jonah Williams, their first round pick and projected left tackle,  is likely out for the year after needing surgery to repair a torn labrum.

It’s also not a good sign that few reinforcements were brought in to help a defense that would be over the moon to be called decent this year. The Bengals surrendered more yards per game (413.6) than anyone else in the NFL and had the league’s worst third-down percentage (48.9) in 2018.

Outlook: The Steelers and the Ravens are legitimate programs that remain competitive through any type of adversity. In a division with these two stalwarts, and then the addition of the usptart Browns, there is just too much talent and pedigree in the North for the Bengals to compete.

More Wins: Steelers vs Ravens

Team Odds
Steelers -0.5 wins -130
Ravens +0.5 wins -110

Easy-money explanation: The Steelers are built for the new NFL. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Ben Roethlisberger, despite what he would himself consider a down year,  led the league in passing yards and after all the internal turmoil, is the undisputed leader of this team. You already know how I feel about JuJu Smith-Schuster and the year he’s going to have.

They still have the customary grit and grind. He may not be Le’Veon Bell, but James Conner doesn’t need to be. All Pittsburgh needs him to do is run hard and hang on to the football. Their defense may still be lacking Ryan Shazier, but they may have found an apt speed and range comparison with rookie Devin Bush.

The Ravens, by head coach John Harbaugh’s own admission, will be anything but your prototypical NFL offense. Such is the life when you’ve got Lamar Jackson as your starting QB. He appeared in all 16 games, but in just seven starts, Jackson compiled most of his carriers, setting the record for most rushes in a season by a QB with 147 totes. While it is interesting, there’s only so far that gadgetry can take you.

Outlook: It’s going to be tight, but I’ll take stability at QB over the still unknown. Jackson will win the Ravens some games with his legs, but there will be others where he’s forced to throw them to victory, and he won’t always be able to come through. Steelers take this one with a few games to spare.

Odds to Win NFC East

Team Odds
Philadelphia Eagles -110
Dallas Cowboys +140
Washington Redskins +900
New York Giants +1200

Easy-money explanation: The Eagles are one of the top constructed rosters in the NFL, and that’s why they’re one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If Carson Wentz  is healthy, expect him to return to shredding defenses and slinging it all over the field.

DeSean Jackson is still more than capable of taking the top off defenses, allowing Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Ertz to work all over the field. Rookie Miles Sanders might be a game-breaker at running back, but head coach Doug Pedereson knows how to get his backfield weapons involved by committee too.

Also, their defensive front is going to mash, and that was before they brought in Malik Jackson and returned Vinny Curry to a front that includes Fletcher Cox, Tim Jernigan and Brandon Graham.

Outlook: Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has already admitted that Zeke Elliott’s holdout could lead to multiple games missed in the regular season. The Cowboys are the only team in the division with the talent to compete with the Eagles, though Philly’s still deeper and more potent. Giving them any sort of cushion will be the difference maker.

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