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NFL Week 14 ATS Picks: Can Mahomes Mash Vaunted Patriots Defense?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 1:35 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes reaction
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to New England to take on the Patriots in Week 14. Photo from @TheUndefeated (Twitter).
  • Patriots’ struggling offense will need to keep up with Chiefs
  • Steelers and Duck Hodges in Arizona, hoping to stay in playoff positioning
  • ATS Week 13 Record: 2-3; Overall 2019 Record: 24-28-1

Well, Week 13 was unlucky as hell. Who knew things would go to devastating form in the AFC West, in the biggest game Oakland has played in years? Or that red-hot Sam Darnold would run into the buzzsaw that is … the winless Cincinnati Bengals?

Alas, we’re staying away from games where teams are playing out the stretch. At least one of the clubs in our picks this week is invested in this season, and maybe that will get us back to .500. What better place to start than in Foxborough, where the Patriots, once considered a Super Bowl lock, could find themselves in a potential AFC East division winner take all with the Bills, if things shake out the right way.

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Team Spread
Kansas City Chiefs +3 (+101)
New England Patriots -3.0 (-119)

*Odds from December 5 

Analysis: The Jets, Dolphins and Broncos are the dregs of NFL offense this year, ranking in the bottom five in the NFL in points per game this season. We bring them up because each of them are averaging more than the Patriots’ 18 points a game in November. That’s abysmal, and not what you’re accustomed to with a Tom Brady-led offense.

The Chiefs entered this year thinking they’d need to climb Patriot mountain to get to where they needed to go after dropping both contests a year ago, including the AFC Championship, when New England was able to summon up enough offense and just enough stops to get a win.

I don’t see how it happens now. The Pats’ high-point mark the last four weeks — which coincides with the meaty part of their schedule — is 22 points, most of which was piled up in garbage time in a loss to the Texans, a game that wasn’t in doubt after halftime. Conversely, KC has put up 24 points or more in all but one game this year.

While the Patriots do have a vaunted defense, they have been ripped by agile, athletic dual-threat quarterbacks in the form of Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Pat Mahomes fits the bill as well, and he leads an offense that’s churning out 6.3 yards per play, second best in the NFL. He’s been deadly on the road of late too, putting up a passer rating of 115+ in two of his last three.

KC has covered in three of their last four, while New England has been able to cover once in their last four contests. These trends continue.

The Pick: Chiefs +3 (+101) 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals

Team Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-109)
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 (-109)

Analysis: There’s only one reason why the Steelers, a team that ranks 28th in offense, on their third string quarterback who goes by the name Duck Hodges, and missing their two most potent offensive weapons in running back James Conner and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster this Sunday, could be a favorite on the road.

Defense.

Pittsburgh’s rise from 0-3 to 7-5 and into playoff contention is built on a defense that looks even more impressive than its fifth-place ranking. They lead in the NFL in takeaways with 30, and they’re one of three teams in the league that have three players with at least seven sacks on the season. TJ Watt leads a group that’s registered at least a sack in 53 straight games, while personally recording at least a half-sack in nine straight games. That’s the current longest streak in the NFL.

They have held teams to under 20 points in five of their last seven games.

If there’s something worse than the Steelers’ offense, it’s the Arizona defense. They’ve lost five straight, and they’ve surrendered at least 28 points in each of their losses, with four of those games going over 31 points.

Hodges should be able to move the ball, and he’s built a nice rapport over a short time with receiver James Washington, who led the team with 111 receiving yards in a win over Cleveland last week.

The Steelers have been betting darlings after starting the year 0-2 ATS. Since then, they’ve gone an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. Vegas has the odds just right for this one, and Chris Boswell’s boot will probably win it for you – that or a Steelers’ defensive score.

The pick: Steelers -2.5 (-109) 

Washington Redskins vs Green Bay Packers

Team Spread
Washington Redskins +12.5 (-109)
Green Bay Packers -12.5 (-109)

Analysis: History tells us this is Aaron Rodgers time. The Packers’ pivot has a career passer rating of 111.2 in regular-season home games in December and January, tops in NFL history for any QB with a minimum 200 pass attempts. He showed what he could do in wintery conditions last week in New York, carving the Giants to the tune of four TD passes in a 31-13 romp.

So it should be pretty easy to light up a 3-9 squad, right? Normally, yes, but Washington is coming off two straight wins, the latter of which, a 29-21 win in Carolina effectively ended the Ron Rivera coaching era with the Panthers.

While Dwayne Haskins is still very much a work in progress at quarterback, he’s got a dynamic backfield that lets him be a game-managing QB. Derrius Guice, finally healthy, had 129 yards rushing and two touchdowns, eclipsing the century mark for the first time this season. Fellow RB Adrian Peterson chipped in with 99 yards rushing and a touchdown of his own.

Conversely, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for 58 yards rushing last week against the Giants, and as a team the Pack have failed to crack 120 yards rushing in five of their last six games.

Washington would love to squeeze out long drives to keep Rodgers sidelined on Sunday, and the Packers’ defense is ranked 25th against the run on the year. But their passing game, which generates just 163 yards a contest, is going to be forced to make some throws, which won’t be pretty.

It’s been a good run for the Redskins, but it’s time to crash back down to earth, and work on getting the best draft spot possible.

The pick: Packers +12.5 (-109)

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans

Team Spread
Denver Broncos +9.0 (-109)
Houston Texans -9.0 (-109)

Analysis: Broncos rookie pivot Drew Lock is going to get an up close and personal look at what a franchise pivot is all about when Denver travels to Houston to battle the Texans. Deshaun Watson is coming off a dominating performance over the Patriots, throwing for three TD’s and catching one other. He’s been on fire at home: Watson has thrown for 1,237 yards with 13 TDs and one interception in last four home games, all W’s.

He’s always needed to be spectacular as Houston’s defense isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire, and they are missing their top defender in JJ Watt, who’s out for the year with a torn pec muscle. They rank 27th overall, including 28th against the pass, which should help Lock, who was 18-for-28 for 134 yards, with two touchdown passes and an interception against the Chargers.

Save for three blowouts (two wins, and one loss), the Texans’ last 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been a pretty reliable bet as of late. They’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, but just 2-4 ATS away from home on the year.

While the Broncos are 0-5 this season when an opponent scores 21 or more points, they have been given a pretty good cushion by oddsmakers this week, and have a knack for losing close games. As good as Watson is, it’s a big figure to overcome.

The pick: Broncos +9 (-109)

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