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NFL Week 13 ATS Picks: Packers Hoping for Bounce Back Performance in the Big Apple

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 10:34 AM PDT

Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers celebrating
Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers have helped lead the Packers to an 8-3 mark heading into Week 13 against the Giants. Photo from @ForbesSports (twitter)
  • After getting crushed by 49ers, Packers try to rebound against Giants
  • Chiefs and Raiders battle for first in the AFC West
  • ATS Week 12 Record: 3-1; Overall 2019 Record: 22-25-1

We hit it pretty good in Week 12. Save for Washington showing up on a game day (imagine that!), that was one of our best week of picks this year. Also, don’t think I’m not taking my Thanksgiving game pick into account when we tally these up.

With that in mind, we’re eyeing the break-even line with a great Week 13, starting with an NFC powerhouse trying to shake the stink off a thorough beating in prime time.

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants

Team Spread
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-109)
New York Giants +6.5 (-109)

*Odds from November 28

Analysis: For a team with three losses all year, and a healthy 7-4 ATS this season, the Packers are a peculiar bunch. After getting crushed by the 49ers 37-8 in Week 12, Green Bay has now lost two of their last three, and in those losses, they’ve put up a measly 19 points.

That much-improved defense that was a point of pride to start the year is sliding back to the mean, as Green Bay is giving up 380.5 yards a game, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. And they’re divvying up the pain pretty equally: they are surrendering 255 yards a game through the air (10th most), and 125.5 along the ground (7th most).

Save for the emergence of Aaron Jones, rushing for 11 TDs and 627 yards on the year, and the good health and ability of QB Aaron Rodgers, this team would be in a world of hurt. Their 23.5 points per game scoring average is tied for 11th, but needs a shot of life after just one TD in the Sunday Nighter. So thank goodness for the Giants, who should be the remedy they need.

The G-Men are reeling, having lost seven straight and one away from a skid they haven’t hit since 2004. Rookie QB Daniel Jones has thrown at least one TD pass in each start, but that’s about the only good news. Lately, he’s had a serious case of butter fingers. Jones has fumbled in five straight games, 11 in total, and New York has lost seven of those.

If Saquon Barkley can’t get it going (no 100-yard run games since Week 2), the Smiths – Za’Darius and Preston, the only pass rush tandem with 10 or more sacks each – could force Jones to continue to cough it up. Count on those extra possessions, and the Pack to capitalize with points to cover this spread.

The Pick: Packers -6.5 (-109)

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

Team Spread
New England Patriots -3.5 (+101)
Houston Texans +3.5 (-119)

Analysis: I’m not here for your ‘Patriots’ offense is in shambles talk’. Can’t do it. Let’s chalk up last week’s inept 13-9 win over Dallas to an East coast monsoon. And even if the Patriots have only mustered 50 points total  in three November games, it’s fair to say that there’s only one true challenger to their supremacy in the AFC – and it’s not the Texans.

Bill Belichick is seeking his 15th win against former assistant coaches, and he’s fed Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien a steady dose of L’s. Belichick is 4-0 in regular season games against Houston and 5-0 overall, and he comes into town showcasing an historic-level defense.

The Patriots are allowing an NFL-low 10.6 points per game and lead the league with 20 interceptions and 29 total takeaways, allowing only 117 points through 11 games. They’re downright stingy on third down, with teams going just 25-for-132, a paltry 18.9% completion clip.

Houston is coming off a 20-17 win over Indianapolis, washing the stink off a pummelling at the hands of the Ravens a week prior. QB Deshaun Watson’s strong play at home is reason for optimism. He has 1,033 yards passing with 10 TDs and one interception in his last three at NRG Stadium, while shining especially bright in prime time: putting up 18 touchdown passes to just three picks in seven career prime time games.

Still, we’ve seen this Patriots’ dynasty too long to know they’ll show up for this one.

The Pick: Patriots -3.5 (+101)

Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Team Spread
Oakland Raiders +10 (-109)
Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-109)

Analysis: As you know, I’m wildly wary of betting divisional games, no matter the records of the teams, especially if it’s a rivalry that runs deep. But we’re making an exception here because there’s a betting line that’s just too good to pass up. The fact that Oakland is 1-4 on the road, and that three of those games have been double-digit losses to two playoff bound teams (Vikings and Packers) and the lowly Jets last week, who hammered them 34-3, is the exact reason I’m in on this game. It doesn’t make sense!

https://twitter.com/NFLFBGAMETIME/status/1198695446564130816

The Chiefs are in the midst of the meaty part of their schedule, and they’re just 2-2 in their last four, with all games decided by a touchdown or less. The offense isn’t a problem – while they’re not who they were a year ago, and Patrick Mahomes finally looked like himself after returning from a dislocated knee – KC has still put up 106 points over the last four games. Problem is, their defense has allowed 106 over that same stretch as well.

Raiders’ RB Josh Jacobs (shoulder) should be a go, and he can absolutely grind out yards and keep Mahomes and company on the sideline, hopefully pressuring them to put up points on less possessions. And Oakland’s beleaguered defense could use it: the Raiders have allowed an NFL-worst 55 pass plays of at least 20 yards. That’s the most in the league through 11 games since the Patriots gave up 58 in 2011.

I’m all in on Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s 17-3 mark in games after a bye week, including 10-1 in home games and 2-0 against Raiders. But it’s also worth noting the stakes: the 6-5 Raiders can pull into a tie atop the AFC West with a win, wiping out the tiebreaker that KC has over them for a win earlier in the year. It will also lift them above the logjam of teams trying to sneak into the final wild card spot. If that isn’t incentive enough, at least stay within the 10 points, fellas.

The Pick: Raiders +10 (-109)

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Team Spread
New York Jets -3.0 (-114)
Cincinnati Bengals +3.0 (-104)

Analysis: Another one strictly for the bettors. But also, after the Ravens, do you know who the highest scoring team in the NFL is in the last three weeks? That would be Gang Green! The New York Jets have posted 34 points in three consecutive games, and they are looking for their first four game winning streak since a five-game run from Week 12-16 in the 2015 season.

Jets QB Sam Darnold has gone 58-for-89 (65.1%) for 838 yards, seven TD passes and one interception over that stretch. He’s also rushed for two scores. Of course, he’s done it against some of the worst competition in football, beating the Giants, Redskins and whatever showed up from Oakland last week.

That’s important because the Jets are looking like young Mike Tyson to a no-name tomato can, in this case, the ultra-hapless Bengals, owners of the worst defense in the NFL, and the only winless team in the league at this point.

Perhaps this is the week that Le’Veon Bell finds the century mark on the ground. He’s yet to crack 100 yards rushing in his young Jets career, but he has been fairly productive as a dual threat back.

After his three week audition, it’s safe to say that rookie QB Ryan Finley hasn’t clinched even a chance to compete for a starting job next season. While playing with a brutal set of teammates, he also sunk to that level, completing just 47% of his passes, throwing for 474 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Cincy will go back to veteran pivot Andy Dalton, but it shouldn’t matter.

The Jets are 3-0 ATS after going just 2-5 in the previous seven games, while Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS at home.

The Pick: Jets -3 (-114)

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