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NFL Week 12 ATS Picks: Russell Wilson and the Seahawks Shown No Betting Love in Philly

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 2:57 PM PDT

Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll celebrating
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are betting underdogs in Philadelphia against the Eagles. Photo from @theScore
  • 8-2 Seattle Seahawks a 1-point underdog against 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles
  • Cowboys bring top-ranked offense to New England against Patriots’ top-ranked defense
  • ATS Week 11 Record: 2-2; Overall 2019 Record: 19-24-1

Well, it was a fun ride while it lasted, Miami Dolphins. Who knew Josh Allen was a cover-run killer, stopping the Fins’ joy ride at five? And thank goodness we got that extra half-point in San Francisco, or Week 11 would have been way uglier than the usual 2-2.

Alas, we turn to Week 12, and here’s an oddity: our picks are in lockstep with the happenings in the NFC East, beginning with a line so disrespectful it’s a must wager.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

Team Spread
Seattle Seahawks +1 (-109)
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (-109)

*Odds from November 21

Analysis: Is this going to be one of those ‘Vegas is way smarter than us moments’, or is this a massive oversight? Last we checked, save for an early TD drive against the Patriots, the Eagles were effectively neutralized for an entire game offensively in a loss to fall to 5-5. Even if Jordan Howard does return from injury, running the ball hasn’t been the issue.

Philly’s offense just can’t pass the ball effectively. Alshon Jeffrey is questionable and Desean Jackson is out for the year, leaving Zach Ertz as the lone reliable receiving option. Even when Wentz gives his receivers a chance to make plays, they end in agonizingly incomplete fashion.

But it’s not just Philly’s ineffectiveness, they’re also welcoming in Russell Wilson – one of two players right now on pace to take home league MVP honors. Wilson is 3-0 in his career against the Eagles and lately he’s been especially lethal away from home. He has 19 TDs, zero interceptions and a 123.5 rating in Seattle’s last nine road games. The Seahawks have been powered to their 8-2 start with a sparkling 5-0 mark on the road this season.

This is as close to a lead-pipe lock as you can get, folks.

The pick: Seahawks +1 (-109)

Detroit Lions vs Washington Redskins

Team Spread
Detroit Lions -3.5 (-104)
Washington Redskins +3.5 (-114)

Analysis: Here’s a fun game you can throw out to your so-so football fan friends: list off the backup QB’s that have made a start and ask them to pick the one that’s not real. Is it Gardner Minshew, Devlin Hodges, Luke Falk, Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen or Jeff Driskel? While they all sound like video-game simulated names, all have started a game in the NFL this year. In fact, Driskel will start his third straight tilt for the Lions in place of Matt Stafford, who could be gone for the year with a back injury.

He’s gone 42-for-72 for 487 yards, three TDs with one interception this season, both losses, and Detroit carries a three-game skid into DC. And somehow, Driskel looks like the second coming of Peyton Manning compared to whatever Washington is putting out on the field offensively.

Dwayne Haskins has Adrian Peterson to hand off to – a guy who has averaged better than 125 rushing yards per game in his career against the Lions – and has a some nice young pieces in WR Terry McLaurin and RB Derrius Guice. What he doesn’t have yet is a grasp of the Washington offense. Last week’s performance: 19-for-35 for 214 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception looks passable, but those scores came when the Jets (of all teams) were already up big and in cruise control.

The Lions have gone 0-5 ATS since starting the year 4-1, but this stop is a good streak buster.

The pick: Lions -3.5 (-104)

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears

Team Spread
New York Giants +6 (-109)
Chicago Bears -6 (-109)

Analysis: Perhaps oddsmakers haven’t seen the Bears play this year, because this is another absurd line favoring a team that’s a mess at the the most critical position: quarterback. Mitch Trubusky was lifted late in the Sunday nighter with a hip pointer, but he left his stink on this one plenty, going 24-for-43 for 190 yards, with one touchdown and one pick. He averaged under 4.5 yards per completion and at no point did he give his team a chance to win.

If he can’t go, Chase Daniel provides a lower ceiling and steadier play, but at this point, it’s safe to describe his style as limited. Whoever gets the nod, those two are fronting the NFL’s 28th-ranked scoring unit, including 27th in touchdowns scored.

There’s only so much Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense can do to plug the dam. They’ve held the opposition to under 20 points in three of the last four contests, yet Chicago is in the midst of five losses in their last six games.

It’s not like the Giants are faring much better, but even though they’ve lost six in a row and rank second-to-last in both giveaways (24) and turnover differential (minus-12), I like that they’ll be able to stay within striking distance.

Can Saquon Barkley get going in Chicago? He has 402 yards rushing on 101 totes on the year, but since returning from injury, he’s failed to reach 75 yards rushing in four games, finishing with minus-1 rushing yards in their latest loss to the Jets.

The Bears are just 1-4 ATS at home, and the G-men are 2-3 ATS on the road. There are also other books that have Big Blue with odds as long as +9, if you are so inclined.

The pick: Giants +6 (-109)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Team Spread
Dallas Cowboys +6.5 (-109)
New England Patriots -6.5 (-109)

Analysis: He is without question the best QB of all-time, but this week, Tom Brady is clearly the second-best quarterback when they kick off against the Cowboys. Dak Prescott is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards while averaging a hefty 8.8 yards per attempt.

Against Detroit, Prescott threw for 444 yards and three TDs – the third time this season he’s cracked the 400-yard passing mark. Prescott is navigating the NFL’s top-ranked offense which churns out better than 444 yards a game, and features the top-ranked passing attack and seventh-best rushing game.

Meanwhile, Brady is coming off one of his worst starts, including an historically bad first half against the Eagles, where he had a career-high 14 incompletions. He finished with 216 yards passing on 47 attempts, a paltry 4.6 yards per attempt average.

But the Patriots are still 9-1 on the year, and they’ll put their top defense on the line against that potent Cowboys’ attack. The Patriots are holding teams to league-low 249.9 yards per contest, and lead the NFL with 19 interceptions. They are also holding teams to an NFL-low 10.8 points per game and have not allowed a red zone touchdown at home this season.

This game maybe won or lost on third down: New England holds opponents to 19.3% on third downs while the Cowboys convert on the money down 50.2% of the time. Both are tops in the NFL.

Baltimore beat up New England by running the ball relentlessly inside the tackles. Dallas can do that as well, after Prescott gets cooking with the passing game, to open up those lanes. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS this season, a game better than Dallas’ mark. Cowboys are thinking upset, and you should too.

The pick: Cowboys +6.5 (-109)

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