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NFL Week 11 ATS Picks: Ride or Die With the Miami Dolphins Again?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 12:43 PM PDT

Ryan Fitzpatrick pointing at the line of scrimmage
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins have covered the spread five straight games. Can they make it six when they take on the Bills? Photo from @Phinscom (Twitter).
  • Dolphins have covered the spread in five straight games as they host the Bills
  • Raiders 11-point favorites over winless Bengals in Oakland
  • ATS Week 10 Record: 2-1-1; Overall 2019 Record: 17-22-1

Well, we earned our first push of the year, thanks to the Bills’ Stephen Haushka shanking against the Browns, but our undefeated week ended the same time Sean McVay’s perfect record against the AFC in the regular season did. So that was fun.

Week 11 has a hodgepodge of games to choose from, and we’ve dipped our toe into big spreads, must-not-see-TV and a (betting) hot-hand from South Beach. Folks, you’re in the Dolphins zone. Let’s go!

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Team Spread Odds
Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-114)
Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-104)

*Odds from November 14

Analysis: After getting absolutely creamed in the first four weeks of the regular season, the Fish have been frisky ever since, covering against the spread in their last five games, winning two straight. Long run, this is killing their tanking dreams of getting the highest draft pick possible.

But in the interim? They’ve become a competitive stopgap team, a placeholder for the talent that should be dotting the roster over the next two drafts. They’re catching a Bills defense trending downwards. After six weeks, Buffalo was 10th in yards allowed but have slipped down to 23rd. They were seventh in run defense over that time as well, and have faded to 21st.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a gamer, and he has a defense that is playing its best ball of the season. After ranking dead last in points allowed (41 per game) and yards allowed (472) through their first four games, Miami ranks 15th in scoring defence (21) and 14th in yards allowed (326).

With the Bills’ inability to pick up points to help their struggling D (29 points scored in the last two games), the Dolphins hang around, and come close a a third straight W.

The Pick: Dolphins +6.5 (-104)

New York Jets vs Washington Redskins

Team Spread Odds
New York Jets +2.5 (-109)
Washington Redskins -2.5 (-109)

Analysis: Strictly for the bettors, as your eyes should not be subjected to this game for any other reason. There’s desert dry, and then there’s Redskins’ offense dry. Washington has not scored a TD in three straight games. This isn’t your grandfather’s NFL, but the ‘Skins are doing their best to turn back the clock.

Maybe they take the training wheels of rookie pivot Dwayne Haskins in his second career start. He was not able to take advantage of a strong Adrian Peterson performance against the Bills (108 yards rushing), as he finished just 15-for-22 for 144 yards and no TD’s.

Despite beating the Giants last week, the Jets are in a whole heap of mess themselves, trying for consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 5 and 6 of last season.

QB Sam Darnold bounced back against the G-Men, going 19-for-30 for 230 yards and a touchdown. This was his first game without an interception since the season opener, and snapped a string of eight picks thrown in his previous three outings.

And Le’Veon Bell found the endzone for just the third time this season, but it has been a slog: he has rushed for just 449 yards on 143 carries. That 3.1-yard average per tote would be the lowest of his career.

Still, the Jets offense looks like the 2007 Patriots compared to anything Washington can put together.

The Pick: Jets +2.5 (-109)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders

Team Spread Odds
Cincinnati Bengals +11 (-104)
Oakland Raiders +11 (-114)

Analysis: Now here’s a team that’s knows how to tank. The Bengals are the league’s last winless team, and are in pole position for the top pick in the NFL Draft. Another loss will match the franchise high for consecutive losses to start a season, and longest losing streak, and it appears they might just be getting started.

After benching Andy Dalton, Ryan Finley had an exceptionally bad debut. The rookie pivot threw an pick-six, returned 89 yards for a score, and also fumbled, which was returned to the house. He was 16-for-30 for 167 yards with a TD and an interception, and finished with a passer rating of 66.9.

The Bengals have managed to score 20 points in two games this season and have broken that barrier only six times in their last 17 games. And their defense is a welcome mat for opposing running games. They have allowed at least 175 yards rushing five times this season, four of those games topping 200.

That should bode well for Oakland rookie RB Josh Jacobs, seeking his third straight game with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and a rushing TD. Oakland has tied a franchise mark by scoring at least 24 points in their last six games.

It is slightly concerning that Oakland’s largest margin of victory this year is eight points, but there’s just not a lot of resistance here.

The Pick: Raiders +11 (-114)

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

Team Spread Odds
Arizona Cardinals +10.5 (-114)
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 (-104)

Analysis: So we meet again … two weeks later. Before the Seahawks ended the Niners’ perfect campaign, Arizona put a scare into them first, needing the best Jimmy Garappolo performance of the season to escape with the win. Ideally, the ground game — which screeched to a halt against the Seahawks — returns to the form that churns out better than 160 yards per game.

San Francisco is banking on it, especially considering that George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders are listed as questionable for this one.

Defense has been ‘Frisco’s bread-and-butter all season, and they feature a fearsome pass rush that has recorded at least three sacks a game over the last six contests, and ranks second in the NFL with 35 overall. They surrender a league-low 143.8 passing yards a game to go with 11 interceptions on the season (fourth overall) and they boast stingiest red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 36.8% of trips.

That’s Arizona’s weak spot (well, one of them): they’re second-worst in converting touchdowns on red zone trips, hitting on 34.3% of their visits. But the Cardinals find a way to hang around in games, as evidenced by their 7-3 ATS record, including a sparkling 4-1 ATS mark on the road.

Kyler Murray looked good last time out against the Niners, going 17-for-24 for 241 yards and two scores, though one was a massive chunk play to Andy Isabella.

San Francisco’s defense has looked slightly less dominant the last two weeks as they’ve faced mobile, agile pivots that can sidestep the pass rush and make plays down the field. Arizona is a top-10 rush defense, and if the Cards can contain the run game, Jimmy G probably won’t have the weapons to go up and down the field consistently in the pass game like he did in Week 9.

The Pick: Arizona +10.5 (-114)

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