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NFL Week 17: Sunday’s 3 Best Bets

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 11:09 AM PDT

DeShone Kizer at training camp
DeShone Kizer and the Browns will look to avoid an 0-16 season this Sunday in Pittsburgh. (By Erik Drost (Flickr) CC License)

One key to sustaining long-term betting success is maximizing your potential earnings. Ahead of Week 17, we have gathered our three best value bets.

1) 49ers Continue to Roll in Los Angeles

THE PLAY: 49ERS -4 (-110)

Since replacing CJ Beathard as the 49ers’ starting pivot, Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for an average of 312 yards per game, en route to leading San Francisco to four consecutive victories. The first three wins — against Chicago, Houston, and Tennessee — were promising, but it was the 44 points “Jimmy GQ” dropped on the then-top-ranked Jaguars defense that has really grabbed the attention of the football world.

Garoppolo will have a golden opportunity to push the 49ers’ winning streak to five in Week 17, facing a Rams team that will be resting many key players. LA’s offense will be without Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Andrew Whitworth, and John Sullivan, while the defense will not have Aaron Donald. It’s hard to argue that a professional team would take the field on Sunday with the intent of losing, but it would be what’s best for Sean McVay and the Rams. A loss to the 49ers could drop Los Angeles to the fourth-seed in the NFC, setting up a potential Divisional Round matchup with the Carson Wentz-less Philadelphia Eagles.

On one side of the field this Sunday, you’ll see a team playing with the mindset of staying healthy and avoiding the Minnesota Vikings early on in the playoffs, while the other side will feature a team with a lot of momentum playing in what amounts to their Super Bowl. I’m going to side with the latter picking up a convincing win here.

2) Mahomes Records a Win in His First Career Start

THE PLAY: CHIEFS +185 (MONEYLINE)

I understand the hesitancy in betting on a rookie QB making his first career start, especially since Andy Reid will likely rest many other of the Chiefs’ star players. But you need to consider the state of the team they are preparing to battle on Sunday.

The Denver Broncos have been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2017 season. Their 27-11 defeat in Washington last week was the icing on the cake of a frustrating year. With nothing to play for, Denver has decided to turn the offense back over to 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch. It feels like this is Lynch’s last opportunity to prove he is a worthy candidate to be the Broncos’ quarterback in 2018. Unfortunately, the only thing the second-year pro has proven thus far is that he is not even close to being NFL-ready. Lynch’s pocket awareness has been poor, he’s slow on his reads, his accuracy has been subpar, and he has failed to show much athleticism. Add in the fact that he’s still recovering from a high-ankle sprain, and I’m not expecting much at all from Denver’s offense on Sunday.

While there will be a lot of unknown players taking the field for the Chiefs, +185 is very enticing against a team that has all but given up on the 2017 season. Patrick Mahomes won’t have Tyreek Hill on Sunday, and may also be without Travis Kelce, but I’m very comfortable putting my faith in the rookie to outperform Paxton Lynch and a Broncos offense that has turned the ball over 31 times this season (31st).

3) Offense is Hard to Find in Steelers vs Browns

THE PLAY: UNDER 36.5 (-110)

Convinced that the Patriots will beat the Bryce Petty-led Jets on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers have opted to rest their stars and not chase the AFC’s top seed. This means Landry Jones will start under center, and won’t have the services of Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown, who would have missed the game due to injury anyway. Jones was thrown into a very similar situation last year in Week 17, and he threw for 277 yards and three TDs, with one interception, en route to defeating the Browns 27-24. Here’s why this year will be different.

The 2016 Browns defense was absolute trash. They ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in defensive DVOA. The 2017 Browns defense ranks 12th in total defense, first in yards per carry (3.3), and 16th in defensive DVOA. James Conner has run the ball to the tune of 4.5 yards per carry this season, but it will be Landry Jones who has to shoulder the offensive load for Pittsburgh, and I do not believe he is capable, especially without Antonio Brown in the lineup.

The Browns offense won’t fare any better on Sunday. They rank 32nd in points scored (13.1 per game) and 27th in total offense. The one thing the Cleveland offense has been able to do this season, outside of turn the ball over at a remarkable rate, is run the football. The Browns rank fourth in yards per carry (4.5), but are only 27th in rushing attempts. In a game where Pittsburgh’s offense will also struggle, look for Hue Jackson to stubbornly stick to the ground game with 0-16 on the line, which will serve them well against a Steeler defense that’s allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season (28th). This will lead to a shorter game with longer possessions, and therefore fewer scoring opportunities.

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