- Patriots’ first rounder N’Keal Harry’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds are falling, now averaging +2000
- The Cardinals’ Kyler Murray is the favorite to win
- Is there value in Harry in the OROY race?
The New England Patriots made a statement when they invested a first round pick in N’Keal Henry.
Understandably, the first wide receiver taken in the first round during Bill Belichick’s tenure has drawn a lot of attention. Playing with Tom Brady, some think he’s got Offensive Rookie of the Year potential.
Is the hype deserved? Or are your time, and money, better spent elsewhere?
2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
|Player||Team||Drafted||Odds at Bovada||Odds at BookMaker.eu||Odds at MyBookie|
|Kyler Murray, QB||Arizona Cardinals||1/1||+150||+150||+200|
|Dwayne Haskins, QB||Washington Redskins||1/15||+750||+790||+650|
|Josh Jacobs, RB||Oakland Raiders||1/24||+650||+863||+800|
|MeCole Hardman, WR||Kansas City Chiefs||2/56||+1800||+1800||+1200|
|Marquise Brown, WR||Baltimore Ravens||1/25||+2500||+2197||+1000|
|N’Keal Harry, WR||New England Patriots||1/32||+2500||+1800||+1600|
|David Montgomery, RB||Chicago Bears||3/73||+2200||+1636||+2500|
|TJ Hockenson, TE||Detroit Lions||1/8||+2500||+2197||+1400|
|AJ Brown, WR||Tennessee Titans||2/51||+2500||+2564||+2500|
|Darrell Henderson, RB||Los Angeles Rams||3/70||+3000||+1694||+3000|
*Odds taken 07/10/19
The QBs are at the top for obvious reasons.
Both have clear paths to starting and play premiere positions. Murray has been the wire-to-wire favorite in NFL OROY odds thus far. Haskins has yet to be passed for second.
Behind them it’s wide-open. Every position is represented in the top ten, even with Lions’ tight end TJ Hockenson suffering a steady drop.
But let’s focus on Harry.
Opinions Mixed on N’Keal Harry’s OROY Chances
Over on NFL.com, they recently published their list of OROY candidates.
Not surprisingly, Murray was at the top, followed by the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs.
Harry found himself sixth. Lance Zierlien had an interesting comment on the topic.
Well, this one is an obvious crap-shoot, depending on how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick feel about the talented rookie out of Arizona State.
This has been the biggest sticking point of any rookie WR in the Pats’ system. Or any new WR for that matter.
How do you get in sync with Brady?
Apparently they’ve spent some time working on that.
Up and Down Off-Season for N’Keal Harry
Heads turned when Harry’s first time catching passes from Brady came away from the Patriots’ complex.
This stood out because these sessions are invitation-only affairs, as Harry was joined by Julian Edelman.
Via his Instagram, Tom Brady and Patriots top pick WR N’Keal Harry are getting some work in together this offseason. pic.twitter.com/XNt67ZqUG6
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) May 25, 2019
Once the pads came on, it was a bit of a different story. Harry had some drops and was merely OK during the Pats’ mandatory mini-camp.
N’Keal Harry Spring Practice Results
|Wide Receiver||Spring REC/TGT||In 11-on-11 Drills||w/Tom Brady|
While Harry’s percentage wasn’t high, the fact he only received four targets from Brady could be concerning.
Inman has been targeted three times in those three practices.
To put this in some perspective, Mo Harris has 12 catches in team drills during that same span.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) June 6, 2019
And consider this quote from NFL Network’s Reggie Wayne:
I’ve always said it’s going to take you a year to maybe a year and a half before you can adjust to the speed and what’s going on for an NFL football team, especially being a receiver playing with a guy like Tom Brady.
All of this points to a slow first year for Harry.
N’Keal Harry’s OROY Chances Hinge on Red Zone
While it’s yet to be seen if Harry will be able to consistently separate or get to the right areas for Brady, his bottom line is dependent on his red zone production.
N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State #FantasyFootball
➕213-2,889-22 in 3 seasons
➕18.7 Breakout Age
➕109.8 (90th-%tile) Speed Score
➕Contested Catch ?
➖Red Zone/TD Production
➖Inconsistent vs Press
➖Lacks Elite Breakaway Speed pic.twitter.com/kmFyZLwgq1
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) April 12, 2019
Keep in mind, they could utilize Harry’s unique size and strength to fill the void in the red zone left by the retirement of Rob Gronkowski.
If Harry can put that size and strength to use, he could put up massive numbers inside the 20. Which could sway the vote.
— Stephen Nelson (@StephenNelson) September 10, 2017
Harry totaled 22 touchdowns on 213 career catches with Arizona State. In his last two seasons? 17 TDs on 155 catches.
Is N’Keal Harry Worth It in OROY Race?
While the potential is there, it’s a longer shot than the odds state.
Harry will sit behind Edelman on the WR depth chart. He could be behind Dorsett and Berrios, with Maurice Harris as a wild card. While none of those have more raw talent than Harry, this screams ‘we’re insulating the rookie while letting him excel with a select number of plays’.
That’s not OROY material. Oh and the Patriots have a ton of running backs to feed.
With the QBs not offering a ton of value, Jacobs, Hardman and Hockenson all offer deep value. But if Harry’s your play? Hold out until training camp to see if he’s running with the starters. It’ll offer you some peace of mind, and his value won’t change between now and then.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.