Odds Against NFL Changing Overtime Rules for 2019 Season

• The New England Patriots upset the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime of the AFC Championship
• The Patriots scored a touchdown on the first possession of overtime, ending the game
• Could the NFL change the overtime rules to ensure both teams get a possession?

As we all await the start of the Super Bowl, it has been a time of reflection for NFL fans.

Last weekend marked the first time both conference championships went to overtime, but neither result was satisfactory to the objective fan.

The NFC Championship was severely impacted by a referee’s mistake, allowing the Los Angeles Rams to force overtime and eventually win the game. The AFC Championship saw the New England Patriots win the coin toss in overtime and score a touchdown on the first possession, ending the game without Patrick Mahomes getting to touch the ball.

It was the exact same result we saw in Super Bowl 51, when the Patriots won the coin toss and scored a touchdown on the first possession, not even allowing the Falcons offense a chance to take the field.

Online sportsbooks have posted odds on whether or not we’ll see change:

Odds NFL Changes Overtime Rules In 2019

Why Is Change Necessary?

Change is necessary because there is still a scenario in overtime where one team might not get the ball.

Each team gets to possess the ball unless there is a touchdown or safety scored on the first drive.

30 completions.
348 yards.
1 TD.

Brady’s best throws in the AFC Championship. pic.twitter.com/25JCwrB0GR

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 21, 2019

Tom Brady is now 3-0 in overtime and his opponents never touched the ball in those three wins. That means that a basic coin flip makes all of the difference and that’s not really what the sport should be about.

What Are The Options?

We don’t really see this type of situation in any sport.

In the NBA and NHL, the system is fair. In baseball, both teams get a shot in extra innings. In college football, both teams get possessions in the form of a shootout. The NFL needs to change its ways.

In the final 9 minutes, the Falcons…
• Fumbled inside their own 30
• Took themselves out of FG range (FG would’ve won them the game)
• Dropped a game-winning INT which ended up being an Edelman catch

Brady was great, but this was truly just more of a Falcons choke pic.twitter.com/b8OP8ALsxW

— Nathan Marzion (@natemar3i0n) January 4, 2019

Why Haven’t They Changed Already?

That’s the million-dollar question.

There are some people who suggest that NFL games going too long is a problem. However, if you ask most fans, it’s not a problem at all. Who complains about having more football when the game is closely contested all the way through?

Nobody wants more football when it’s the preseason or the game is 42-10 in the fourth quarter. However, when teams are going into extra time to determine a result, fans are often glued to the TV in those tense moments.

LSU vs Texas A&M this weekend was the definition of Football Nirvana pic.twitter.com/xmkRPeeyEi

— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) November 26, 2018

The other downside is simply playing too much football (from the player’s perspective). The season is a grind already and there are tons of injuries as it is. Adding more football may not be the answer.

Will They Make A Change To The Overtime Rules?

At this point, the answer is ‘No’.

Yes, the Atlanta Falcons never saw the ball in overtime of Super Bowl 51. And yes, the Chiefs never saw the ball in overtime in the AFC Championship Game.

But these are just two instances. The New Orleans Saints started with the ball in overtime of the NFC Championship Game and blew their shot, so the system worked then.

Here’s a recap of Tom Brady’s performance in overtime. #NEvsKC pic.twitter.com/eXUMzUX5q3

— The Ringer (@ringer) January 21, 2019

Eventually, this will get changed and we’ll probably see something similar to the college football overtime system. But don’t expect that to happen for 2019.