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Odds of Dak Prescott Winning NFL MVP Still Listed as Long as +3000; Is There Value?

Dak Prescott gives thumbs up
Odds of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott being named NFL MVP are +3000. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Flickr)
  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott still has +3000 odds to win the 2019 NFL MVP Award
  • He was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 1
  • Prescott became the fourth QB in NFL history to post a 158.3 passer rating on 30-plus pass attempts

Is it time to put the words “Dak Prescott” and “NFL MVP” in the same sentence? Based on how the Cowboys quarterback opened the 2019-20 regular season, maybe so.

Prescott went 25 of 32 through the air for 405 yards and four touchdowns as Dallas dumped the New York Giants, 35-17. He finished with a perfect 158.3 rating. The Cowboys’ signal caller is just one of four QBs in NFL history to end up with a perfect passing rating while attempting 30 or more passes.

Oddsmakers aren’t sold on Prescott’s MVP qualifications, however. Odds still list the Dallas QB at +3000 in the 2019 NFL MVP odds.

2019-20 NFL MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Pat Mahomes (Chiefs) +400
Tom Brady (Patriots) +900
Carson Wentz (Eagles) +900
Drew Brees (Saints) +1100
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1100
Deshaun Watson (Texans) +1600
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1800
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +2200
Baker Mayfield (Browns) +2500
Philip Rivers (Chargers) +2500
Matt Ryan (Falcons) +2800
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) +3000

Odds taken on 09/11/19. Go to sportsbook for complete list.

There are 11 QBs with better MVP odds than Prescott.

Prescott Dandy, For Openers

One week into the NFL season, only Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals (418) has more passing yards than Prescott’s total of 405.  He became the fourth QB in NFL history to turn the trio of 400 passing yards, four TD passes, and a perfect passer rating in the same game.

He was the first Dallas QB to post a perfect passer rating in 50 years.

Prescott, who is working on a contract extension, and reported to be in the market for a pact that will pay him $34 million per season, played like he was worth it. Well, for one week he did.

Can Dak Maintain MVP Form?

While winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016, Prescott posted a 104.9 passer rating, the highest ever recorded by an NFL rookie. But the former fourth-round draft pick hasn’t been able to maintain that level of play.

Prescott dropped to a 86.6 passer rating as a sophomore in 2017. He raised that back up to 96.9 last season, but that was still only 14th-best in the league.

Prescott’s TD pass numbers aren’t the stuff of sensation. He completed 23 TD passes as a rookie, and 22 in each of the past two seasons for the usually run-first Cowboys.

Last season, Prescott was 15th in the NFL in passing yardage (3,885), 16th in TD passes, and 38th in passer rating.

History Is Against Him

Think about the great quarterbacks who’ve taken snaps under center for the Cowboys: Don Meredith, Craig Morton, Roger Staubach, Danny White, Troy Aikman. Now, take a minute to consider how many of them were named MVP of the NFL.

If you said zero, you win a cookie.

Indeed, America’s MVP voters have proven reluctant to vote for America’s Team. Just one Dallas player has ever been selected MVP of the NFL – running back Emmitt Smith in 1993.

Dak Wont’ Win MVP

Even if the Cowboys do something special this season, Prescott will always have his doubters. And no doubt, much of the credit for any Dallas success will be directed toward two-time NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott.

Quarterbacks generally win the MVP, but Prescott has established himself as a mid-tier QB over his past two seasons. One game isn’t enough to consider him among the league’s elite, especially when that one game came against what could be the NFL’s worst defense.

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