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Odds Starting to Favor Dak Prescott’s Next Contract Being More Than $35 Million Per Season

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

May 29, 2020 · 3:48 PM PDT

Dak Prescott talking to his receivers.
How big will Dak Prescott's next contract be in terms of annual salary? Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia).
  • Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are in the midst of contract negotiations
  • Rumors surfaced about a week ago that Prescott turned down a contract worth $35 million per year
  • Prescott is likely to top that number on his next contract

The Dallas Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott continue to go back and forth on contract negotiations and one thing is for certain: he’s in for a huge payday.

Will it top the $35-million mark? Considering what other quarterbacks have been paid, it’s quite likely Prescott gets at least $35 million per year.

Odds on AAV of Dak Prescott’s Next Contract

Contract Value Odds
Over $35 Million Per Season -140
Under $35 Million Per Season EVEN

Odds as of May 29.

Should The Cowboys Invest In Dak?

The Cowboys have placed the franchise tag on Prescott for the 2020 season, which means he’s going to make $33 million this year. The Cowboys are mostly in the driver’s seat for now as they could tag him once again in 2021, which would cost the team $37.69 million. That gives them two more years to evaluate him.

There’s no question that Prescott can be elite at times, but he doesn’t appear to be a player that can consistently make everyone around him better. When the offensive line struggles or he doesn’t have optimal weapons, he doesn’t always look elite. In fairness, that can be said about many quarterbacks.

Prescott has games like his 444-yard, three-touchdown, and zero-interception outing against the Detroit Lions last season. At the same time, he had just 223 yards and an interception with no touchdowns in a loss at the New Orleans Saints, and 212 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick in a setback at the Patriots.

The questions the Cowboys have to ask are will he get better and can he elevate the current offense, which is loaded with talent. They might feel like Andy Dalton or Cam Newton would give the team similar production at a much cheaper price.

Cowboys in a Tough Spot Financially

The Cowboys have painted themselves into a corner. Re-signing Prescott is the right move and they needed to pay Amari Cooper too, but making Ezekiel Elliott the highest-paid running back in the NFL doesn’t look like it makes a ton of sense these days. Zeke is great but the running back position is losing value.

Now the Cowboys are forced to think about a future where Prescott, Elliott, and Cooper soak up $70 million in cap space. They’re already in salary cap hell with just over $4 million in cap space right now – the fifth-least – before they’ve even signed all of their rookies. That puts them in a tight spot.

Free Agent Quarterbacks Get Paid

Regardless of what you think of Prescott, he’s going to get paid and he’s going to get over $35 million per year on his next contract. The odds for over $34.5 million per season were at -120 before but now the over is at -140 on $35 million. The reality is that Ben Roethlisberger ($34 million) and Jared Goff ($33.5 million) earned in that range a couple years ago, and Kirk Cousins just signed extension worth $33 million per year.

Prescott is still just 26 years old and is as good or a better option than each of those players. Even if the Cowboys decide to pass on him or let him hit the market, he’ll get at least $35 million as many teams could use an upgrade at quarterback.

However, Dallas keeps their offensive stars and tends to overpay. Prescott will start Week 1 and, eventually, sign a long-term deal above $35 million per year.

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