NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 17
- Quarterback switches are impacting the NFL odds and spreads and the line movement for Week 17
- Raiders QB Derek Carr is benched, while Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is out through injury
- The smallest spread and smallest total of Week 17 both involve AFC North squads
A couple of surprising changes at quarterback are causing significant action in the NFL odds and spreads for Week 17. The benching of Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr and the absence through injury of Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa resulted in dramatic line movement shifts in the betting lines on both games involving those teams.
A huge showdown for AFC supremacy between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals is highlighting the Week 17 slate of games. The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs, the other strong contender in the AFC Championship odds, are heavy favorites over the Denver Broncos. Denver will be debuting interim head coach Jerry Rosburg.
In the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers are seeking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive against division-leading Minnesota. Likewise, the Detroit Lions need to win at home against the Chicago Bears, or they can kiss the NFL postseason goodbye.
In preparation to go into in-depth analysis of this week’s line movement, let’s first look at the up-to-the-minute Week 17 NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines
|Arizona Cardinals||+150||+3 (-110)||Over 42 (-110)|
|Atlanta Falcons||-178||-3 (-110)||Under 42 (-110)|
|Indianapolis Colts||+205||+5.5 (-110)||Over 39 (-110)|
|New York Giants||-250||-5.5 (-110)||Under 39 (-110)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||-250||-4 (-110)||Over 43.5 (-110)|
|Houston Texans||+170||+4 (-110)||Under 43.5 (-110)|
|Cleveland Browns||+105||+2 (-110)||Over 41 (-110)|
|Washington Commanders||-125||-2 (-110)||Under 41 (-110)|
|Chicago Bears||+210||+6 (-110)||Over 52 (-110)|
|Detroit Lions||-260||-6 (-110)||Under 52 (-110)|
|Carolina Panthers||+150||+3 (+100)||Over 40.5 (-110)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-178||-3 (-120)||Under 40.5 (-110)|
|Miami Dolphins||+130||+2.5 (-110)||Over 41 (-110)|
|New England Patriots||-155||-25 (-110)||Under 41 (-110)|
|Denver Broncos||+550||+12.5 (-110)||Over 45 (-110)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-800||-12.5 (-110)||Under 45 (-110)|
|New Orleans Saints||+235||+6.5 (-110)||Over 42 (-110)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||-292||-6.5 (-110)||Under 42 (-110)|
|San Francisco 49ers||-440||-9.5 (-110)||Over 42.5 (-110)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+335||+9.5 (-110)||Under 42.5 (-110)|
|New York Jets||-120||-1.5 (-110)||Over 42.5 (-110)|
|Seattle Seahawks||+100||+1.5 (-110)||Under 42.5 (-110)|
|Minnesota Vikings||+158||+3.5 (-115)||Over 48 (-110)|
|Green Bay Packers||-190||-3.5 (-105)||Under 48 (-110)|
|Los Angeles Rams||+228||+6.5 (-110)||Over 42.5 (-110)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||-285||-6.5 (-110)||Over 42.5 (-110)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+122||+2.5 (-110)||Over 35 (-110)|
|Baltimore Ravens||-145||-2.5 (-110)||Over 35 (-110)|
|Buffalo Bills||-115||-1 (-110)||Over 49.5 (-110)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||-105||+1 (-110)||Over 49.5 (-110)|
Odds as of December 30 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
In Week 17 against the spread picks, home teams are favored in 11 of 15 games. There is one game with a total as high as 50 points. On the other hand, two games are showing over/unders that are less than 40 points.
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NFL Week 17 Biggest Line Movement
At the outset of the week, the Miami Dolphins were 2.5-point road favorites at New England, which was understandable. Miami has won four in a row from the Patriots.
Tua Tagovailoa should not play the rest of the year. Should be reevaluated at the beginning of next season to see if he is ready. My gut feeling is that he should walk away from the game.
— Gary Ellerson (@GaryEllerson) December 27, 2022
Then news broke that Tagovailoa would be out indefinitely with a concussion and the line did a 180. Currently, it’s the Patriots who are 2.5-point home favorites, a 5-point swing. The Dolphins are 0-2 this season when Tua doesn’t play.
The shock news that the Raiders were benching Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham also created a seismic shift in the spreads for their game with the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers vaulted from a 5.5-point pick to the 9.5-point chalk.
Biggest Total Movement In Week 17 NFL Lines
The NFL betting sites are displaying that a trio of games saw their totals adjusted by exactly 2.5 points. The Tagovailoa news was causing the over/under on the Dolphins-Patriots to shorten from 43.5 to 41 points.
Two other games were heading in the opposite direction. The Vikings-Packers game lengthened from 45.5 to 48 points. And the total on the Arizona Cardinals-Atlanta Falcons game jumped from 39.5 to 42 points.
Bills vs Bengals Line Hasn’t Moved
The game of the week between the Bengals and Bills showed an opening line of Buffalo -1. Today, the line remains with the Bills as a 1-point road favorite.
Buffalo will need to buck some trends to make it happen. The Bills are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Cincinnati is 7-0 SU and ATS over the last seven games and 5-0 ATS in the past five against AFC opposition.
The NFL public betting trends are showing the people to be supporting the oddsmakers. They’re betting the Bills in both spreads and moneyline splits.
Biggest Week 17 Spread Goes to KC
It’s been a tale of two cities for the Kansas City Chiefs when it comes to big spreads. At home this season, the Chiefs are 3-0 SU and ATS when given the favorite’s nod by 9.5 or more points. However, when favored by 9+ points on the road this season, Kansas City is 0-2 ATS.
They failed to cover in Week 14 as the 9-point chalk at Denver. This week, the Chiefs are being given the biggest spread of all the Week 17 lines. Kansas City is a 12.5 pick in the rematch with the Broncos. But this game is in Kansas City.
The line has shortened by one point since the Broncos opted to make a coaching change, firing Nathaniel Hackett.
Lowest Week 17 Total – Steelers vs Ravens
The Steelers-Ravens AFC North showdown opened with the smallest total of Week 17 at 36 points. And it’s gotten shorter since then.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh said it’s a “fair assumption” that Tyler Huntley will start at QB Sunday against the Steelers.
Lamar Jackson has not practiced since injuring his knee on Dec. 4. pic.twitter.com/gnkIxa8Yic
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 30, 2022
The over/under for the Pittsburgh vs Baltimore game is now at 35 points. It’s the fourth straight week that the total on the Ravens game is below 40 points. All three previous games went under.
For the Steelers, the total has dipped under 40 points in six of their last seven games. They’re 3-3 on the total in those games.
Bears vs Lions Is Highest Week 17 Total
The Bears-Lions game is set with the largest total of Week 17 at 52 points. It’s no secret that the Lions can put up points. They’ve gone over 30 points in seven games this season and topped 40 points on one occasion.
However, it may come as a surprise that there’s also lots of points being scored when the Bears are playing. The over is 8-1 in Chicago’s last nine games.
When Detroit played at Chicago in Week 11, the total was set at 48.5 points. They easily covered the over, with the Lions winning 31-30.
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